MOScout Daily Update: MedEx $$$ Debate - Legalize It IP Effort - HB 2033 Unconstitutional? - Mantovani for County Exec? and more...

The Medicaid $$$ Debate

Supporters of Medicaid Expansion released a report by Health Management Associates.  It rebuts the chief fear from conservatives that expanding Medicaid would necessarily lead to exploding costs.  See it here.

From the summary: HMA examined the literature on states’ experience with Medicaid Expansions, and took a deeper look at three largely Republican states that had robust discussions about the potential impact of an Expansion prior to its implementation — Ohio, Indiana, and Arkansas. We interviewed leaders with first-hand experience in those states and asked them to reflect upon what did and did not work in their state… An Expansion program in Missouri can be designed to budget for savings and revenue opportunities that significantly exceed the state’s cost of implementation….

·         No State has Reversed its Expansion Decision. Despite significant initial concerns… no state has reversed its decision because of “out of control” costs. It is far more likely that states regard the Expansion as having a positive impact on the state’s general revenue budget….

·         Confirming Reasonable Cost and Enrollment Estimates. Although there are costs to the state for the required ten percent match, these costs can be offset through a variety of mechanisms, as demonstrated by the experience of other states that synchronized program changes and revenue matching initiatives as part of the Expansion design.

·         Provider Taxes Offer Additional Offset Opportunities. A potential Managed Care Organization (MCO) tax and the option to re-visit other provider taxes present opportunities to offset the costs of Expansion….

·         Gains in Employment Are Expected. Experience from other Expansion states demonstrates that Expansion has had a positive impact on people’s ability to seek work, obtain jobs, and engage in volunteer work….

Why It Matters

·         I’m guessing that this report doesn’t change any minds among the Republican fiscal hawks. But it does beg the question: where’s the report from those who say MedEx would detonate a bomb inside the budget?

·         Previous MOScout polling shows that voters like the idea of Medicaid Expansion, but turn against it if it would require additional taxes.

Legalize It?

Missourians for a New Approach announced yesterday that they’re going to try to put a straight marijuana legalization question on the 2020 ballot.  See the petition here. 

·         It would allow anyone over 21 to use marijuana, taxing the product at 15%. 

·         The licensing regulations for the industry would mirror that implemented for medical marijuana.  So we’d be starting through that process once more.

·         The New Approach campaign committee has seen about $350K come into its coffers in the past few weeks.

And

“According to the state's fiscal estimate, the initiative is projected to produce $93 million to $155 million annually to Missouri by 2025, with an additional $17 million to $27 million annually to local governments.”

Senate 25: McDaniels A Fifth?

What is four could become five…. One MOScouter says that Rep. Andrew McDaniel could jump into the Senate 25 Republican primary.

That would make it a five-way race.

·         McDaniel would be from the same part of the district as Jason Bean.

·         But one observer thinks that McDaniel might have a muted impact, assuming he doesn’t raise much money.  (The same calculus goes for former Rep. Steve Cookson).

Court Tweaks Auto-Registration IP Language

The Missouri Western District Court of Appeals ruled on a suit brought by Mary Anne Sedey against Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft.  Sedey disliked Ashcroft’s summary ballot language for her initiative petition to allow automatic voter registration.  See the ruling here. 

Activists believe – with good reason – that even minor word choice on ballot summaries can have an impact on how voters respond. 

In this case Sedey worried that the language would make it sound like the voting age was being lowered to 16; and she didn’t like the word “wrong.”  But the court mostly stuck with Ashcroft’s summary.

Here’s the language now…

Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:

 establish automatic voter registration of individuals at least 16 years old from state agency lists (including the departments of revenue, social services, corrections, and conservation);

 allow voters appearing at the wrong polling place, to vote on a wrong ballot, and have their votes counted on candidates and measures for which the voter was otherwise entitled to vote;

 allow voters to sign up to permanently vote by mail, with voting by mail allowed during the six weeks before each election; and

 make available, using public records, a list of voters casting absentee ballots?

HB 2033 Unconstitutional?

Polsinelli penned a letter outlining the “legal deficiencies in proposed Missouri legislation to strip condemnation authority from the Grain Belt Express Transmission Project.”  See it here.

The bottom-line: “[T]he effect of the Bills would be to deprive Grain Belt of vital rights protected under the Missouri Constitution.”

The $$$$ bottom-line: “[T]he Bills could also amount to an unconstitutional taking in violation of the U.S. and Missouri Constitutions, requiring the State to pay Grain Belt ‘just compensation’ from taxpayer funds.  Considering the tens of millions of dollars that Grain Belt has expended on Project development efforts in reliance on the [certificate of convenience and necessity]’s appropriate grant of eminent domain authority, it would vigorously defend its rights in court and seek all available damages.”

Mantovani Signals County Exec Bid

Post-Dispatch reports that “Mark Mantovani, a retired executive who narrowly lost to Steve Stenger in the 2018 Democratic primary for county executive, said Thursday he is considering another run for the job.”  Mantovani resigned from the Board of Freeholders apparently in preparation for the campaign.

What It Means

Mantovani would join the current County Executive Sam Page and St. Louis County Assessor Jake Zimmerman in this race.  At that point, I imagine an African American candidate would become quite likely.

Bits

·         Here’s a six-minute Wall Street Journal video about the clustering of high-paying industries in a few cities.  Makes me think of St. Louis’ play to become an Ag hub.

·         Press release: On Sunday, February 2, 2020, Governor Mike Parson and First Lady Teresa Parson will travel to Miami Gardens, Florida, to watch the Kansas City Chiefs compete against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.… Governor Parson and First Lady Parson purchased their own Super Bowl tickets. Aside from required standard security, there will be no cost to state taxpayers.

New Committees

Raleigh Ritter formed a candidate committee (Ritter for Missouri).  According to the paperwork, he’s running as a Republican, for either governor or attorney general.  See it here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Joe Pierle added Missouri Primary Care Association.

Thomas Robbins, Jake Silverman, and Steven Tilley added Show-Me Organics, INC.

Tom Robbins and Steven Tilley deleted Missouri Association of License Offices.

Thomas Robbins deleted Rivian.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for a New Approach - $25,000 from Craig Taylor.

Missourians for a New Approach - $25,000 from Beleaf Medical LLC.

Missourians for a New Approach - $30,000 from New Approach PAC.

Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Sheet Metal Workers Local 36.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from MO Corn Growers Associations.

Friends for Rusty MacLachlan - $12,000 from Coalition for Building a Better Tomorrow.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Robin Wright-Jones.