MOScout Daily Update: Harassment Campaign in Senate 19 - The Local Issue This Election? - MO's Downward Trajectory in COVID Deaths and more...

Harassment Campaign in Senate 19

Sen. Caleb Rowden appears to be the subject of a harassment campaign.

·         Rowden wrote last week about his wife being followed, about folks hanging around their street, and a late-night masked visitor (with what looks like a crowbar) to their home.

·         Over the weekend, Rudi Keller reported that someone posing as Rowden sent a text saying he was dropping out of politics.

It’s not entirely clear that all of this is related.  But folks seem to think there’s a pretty good chance it not all random.  I’m told that “law enforcement” has been engaged, and they’re taking this harassment seriously.

Additionally, a few folks on the ground there shake their fist at “tons of signs all over town with no paid for, being placed on private property without owner’s permission.”

What It Means

I would have to guess these occurrences have rattled the Rowden household to some extent.  But it does reinforce his main campaign message: that he’s a reasonable politician in a world increasingly gone mad.

The Issue This Election

While the national election may still be a referendum on President Donald Trump, locally the number one issue on voters’ minds appears to be the response to COVID.  In particular parents are struggling with their children’s educational experiences.

A few indications from the weekend…

·         On Facebook, Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin gives voice to the frustration of parents.  Ultimately the Covid situation is a matter of control. Do you want to tear down your society with the goal of "slowing the spread?" There is zero evidence of Covid being spread in school. A virus can't be stopped regardless so our solution is to live with it. Take the precautions you can and go on. Online learning is a miserable failure for many and varied reasons. I'm not pointing at the schools either; they have been thrust into this with no forewarning and a lack of technology capability… Schools have a choice I think. Open up and do the best you can or risk an abandonment because parents have the right and responsibility to be sure their kids are educated. Taxpayers are not going to stand idly by while their kids lay on the couch day after day watching tv or sit staring at the computer.  Our education system has taxpayer investment in the billions. Parents are rightfully expecting a return on that investment.

·         St. Louis Post Dispatch reports: Of all the tragedies of the pandemic, children in poverty have been hit hardest by school shutdowns. Without the support or technology they need, children don’t log in to virtual school. Teenagers are working to help pay bills instead of attending class. These students are at greater risk of academic failure, hunger, abuse and trauma, school leaders said…

What It Means

I wonder if this is the election cycle’s big whiff. 

Parson has focused on crime, remaining steadfast in his decision to abdicate the COVID response to local health departments and school districts.

But voters might appreciate some leadership here.  And top-down leadership needn’t be one-size-fits-all.  Communities with a positivity rate below a certain level could be mandated to offer an in-person educational option, while those with a rate above a certain level mandated to offer virtual option.

MO COVID Deaths Declining - Always

As of this morning, 2,590 Missourians have died from the COVID virus. 

The Missouri “data dashboard” (see it here) keeps a tally of deaths as well as cases – and purports to show how we rank nationally as well as the trajectory of these metrics.

Missouri’s trajectory for deaths is always downward.  Even when deaths climb.

As a result, on the dashboard, we rank #7 in the nation for deaths per capita over the last seven days, but our trajectory looks reassuring.  It’s green (the good color) and says deaths are declining by 37%.

Here’s the problem: it takes time, at least days, but even weeks, for the record of someone death to make it into the database.  But once entered, the death is recorded for the date of the death.  This means that the most recent days are always “light.”  They always show fewer deaths than are actually occurring, while days farther in the past are accurate.

And that makes it look like out trajectory is declining.  Even when it’s not.
And

Along these lines, the KCStar reported last week that in absolute numbers just as many people are dying now from COVID as they did during the Spring.  In fact, more Missourians have died from COVID-19 in recent months than early in the pandemic. Seven months since the state’s first virus death, more people have been reported dead in the last three-and-a-half months than in the first three-and-a-half-months: 1,422 compared to 998. Last month, 478 people died from the virus compared to 448 in April, according to data from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (MDHSS) that was used to calculate the death rate.

eMailbag from the Weekend

·         On Koenig’s cavalry: My prediction for Koenig, too little, much too late...

·         On prez polling: If the race were truly within 6 points, wouldn't Biden or Harris come here to (at a minimum) help Galloway or Schupp? There are states showing Trump down by 10 and both presidential candidates are still campaigning there… The opposite is also true. Unlikely we will see any surrogates from the Trump campaign in MO between now and Nov 3. They are confident in the numbers here, and will focus on other states/races.

·         On Who Could Take Koenig’s spot: I'm betting on Brattin being a bridge. Brattin may emulate Koenig or Kraus

Lobbyists Registrations

Scott Swain deleted Missouri Amusement Machine Operators Association.

$5K+ Contributions

Democratic Association of Secretaries of State - $110,000 from Democratic Association of Secretaries of State.

Catalyst PAC - $34,000 from             Commonwealth Missouri, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Patricia Pike, and John Lamping.