MOScout Daily Update: New Ads in Senate 15 - New Galloway Ad, Kehoe Ad - Drebes Election Predix - DASS Adds $$$ - MOIndy Debuts and more....

Team Koenig Swings at Lavender

A new ad from Sen. Andrew Koenig’s IE PAC ties Rep. Deb Lavender to disgraced former County Executive Steve Stenger.  See it here.

The ad’s claim rests on a $250 contribution from Citizens for Steve Stenger to Lavender for State Rep back in December of 2015.

A MOScout poll a few weeks ago gave Deb Lavender a 4-point lead (49%-45%) with 6% undecided. But one Republican thinks the “door is very much open for Koenig.”

Meanwhile

Purple PAC, the pro-Deb Lavender PAC, has released its ad, “The Door.”  See it here.  It calls Koenig “an extremist in every sense of the word,” attacking his positions on abortion and guns.

New Galloway Ad

Auditor Nicole Galloway’s new ad focuses on healthcare.  It shows pictures of thousands of kids which morphs into a montage of Governor Mike Parson and accuses him of kicking 100,000 kids off health coverage.  See it here.

Kehoe’ First Ad

Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe released his first ad.  See it here.  It starts as a bio piece.  Teenager Mike Kehoe washed cars to help his single-mother make ends meet.

But by the end has a feel-good optimism to it. “We’re going to get through this pandemic, and I’m still working every day to create the good-paying jobs Missourians need.”

DASS Adds Funds to MO Committee

Yinka Faleti, the only down-ballot statewide Democrat to keep apace his Republican incumbent in the money race, appears poised to receive some late support from the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State.

So far four checks – totaling over $300K – have come into its Missouri committee of which Garrett Webb is the treasurer.

·         9/9/20 - $25,000

·         10/8/20 – $93,500

·         10/16/20 – $110,000

·         10/19/20 - $110,000

Driving the Day: MO Independent

Jason Hancock’s dream team unveils their website, https://missouriindependent.com/, today.  Political junkies have one more site to add to their bookmarks.

MOScout Forecast

We’re at the two-week mark, so it’s time for my election predictions.  They can be found in this Excel spreadsheet.  Forecasted winners are in green.

Statewide

Parson holds a lead in every poll I’ve seen so, I’m picking him to win.  I do believe that Galloway definitely has a path to victory: spiked turnout in the urban and suburban areas.  This is a real possibility so don’t shove this one in a drawer an think it’s over.

The down-ballot race will presumably follow the top of the ticket but with the huge money differential between the incumbent and challenger in most races mean one should expect for the Republican incumbents to hold.

Senate

I’m Dems +1.  Of the three competitive races, I’m calling Beck to win in Senate 1, Lavender in Senate 15, and Rowden holding in a squeaker in Senate 19.

House

Incredibly I’m Dems +7.  Even I don’t believe that.  But it’s where I ended up going through the races.  If history is any guide, Republicans will whittle that number down.  But how can I argue with myself.  GOP is playing complete defense.  I don’t have them flipping a single Democratic district.  The Dem flips on my chart…

·         House 16: open seat with Rep. Noel Shull termed, McCaskill won this district.

·         House 31: Strong Dem candidate takes out Dan Stacy

·         House 34: The accusation against Rick Roeber will cost GOP this seat (they hope! It would end the controversy for them).

·         House 65: Tom Hannegan fits his district and may hold on, but the numbers look good for Dems.

·         House 94 – Rep. Jim Murphy.  Republicans think he’ll hold on again We’ll see…

·         House 106: open seat with Chrissy Sommer termed.

·         House 135: Springfield is ripe to become a little bluer.  And I think Steve Helms pays the price for that.

Lobbyists Registrations

Lisa Christie deleted Arrow Oil & Gas LLC.

Kyle Kamrath deleted Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated.

$5K+ Contributions

Protect Missouri Freedom - $125,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, AFL-CIO Active Ballot Club – Missouri.

Protect Missouri Freedom - $100,000 from Purple PAC.

Democratic Association of Secretaries of State - $110,000 from Democratic Association of Secretaries of State.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.

Keep Government Accountable - $6,700 from IUOE LOCAL 513 Political and Education Fund.

Majority Forward - $30,000 from Scott Sifton for Missouri.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Charter Communications.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Husch Blackwell LLP.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Thompson Coburn LLP.

The 1821 PAC - $10,000 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc.

Citizens to Elect Charles Blair for Sheriff - $10,000 from Charles Blair.

Missouri Forward PAC - $250,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

B PAC - $10,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

B PAC - $7,500 from Warrenton Oil Company.

Northwest Missouri Leadership PAC - $10,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight, PC.

Save Our Fire 2020 - $10,000 from Industrial Development Authority.

Missouri Realtors PAC Inc - $5,500 from Mary Albers.

Common Sense Conservative Democrats PAC - $10,000 from Laborers Union Local #110 Voluntary Political Fund.

MO State Council of Machinists PAC - $21,253 from Machinist Non-Partisan Political League.

St. Charles County Association of REALTORS Political Action Committee - $12,172 from Missouri Realtors PAC.

St. Charles County Association of REALTORS Political Action Committee - $10,000 from NAR.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kevin Gunn and Ben Harris.