MOScout Weekender: New Ads - Senate 19 Tied! - Hallway Split on Floor Leader - WWTW - New MEC Opinions and more....
New Ads
· CLEAN’s third Anti-Amendment 3 Ad is a regular Joe talking straight into the camera. He reiterates the points to their campaign: the lobbyist gift ban is concealing a change in redistricting “to protect politicians.” See it here.
· Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s latest ad casts her as a uniter. It’s a one-minute feel-good ad which starts by tapping into the current zeitgeist of partisan fatigue, and ends with the line: Doing good isn’t about left or right, but right or wrong. See it here.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 19 Tied!
Survey conducted October 20 through October 22, 2020. 489 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. See full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 44%
Joe Biden: 52%
Undecided: 4%
Q2: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Parson: 47%
Nicole Galloway: 49%
Undecided: 4%
Q3: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Caleb Rowden and the Democrat Judy Baker. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Caleb Rowden: 48%
Judy Baker: 48%
Undecided: 4%
Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?
Dealing with the coronavirus: 37%
Reducing violent crime: 19%
Creating more jobs: 11%
Improving healthcare: 15%
Something else: 9%
Not sure: 10%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Floor Leader Race
Here’s the final survey of lobbyists to see who they think will win the hotly contested House Majority Floor Leader race. Short answer: Trent is the slight favorite, but it’s up in the air. 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. J Eggleston… 0%
2. Dean Plocher… 29.2%
3. Curtis Trent… 41.6%
4. Too close to call… 29.2%
Sample of Comments
· It’s going to be really close. I think it will be Curtis, but if HRCC loses more than 5 seats, I would change my vote to Plocher.
· Plocher is trending in the right direction. The moderate or traditional R will land with Plocher.
· Given the division in the Senate, the House could run the Capitol for the next two years if they unify on the heels of this race. If not, we get endless infighting and headaches in both chambers for the next two years.
· Republicans don’t elected moderates as leadership.
· The winner is he who has fewer people lying to them.
· Honestly have no idea between Trent and Plocher, too close to call. Lobbyists are hedging their bets and trying to get close to both. The real question is which House members are the uncommitted swing voters, and will they leverage their vote for a choice chairmanship?
· It really depends on the election. If there is a blue wave and it does not wash out Plocher to sea, he wins. If not, Trent holds on.
· Curtis Trent has support from the right. Dean Plocher the middle. This will rightly determine the ideological future of the caucus.
· Slight edge to Plocher, but if R's have a rough night November 3 this could seal it for him. Also, it seems like momentum has shifted in the last 6 weeks. Having said that - secret ballot with 110+ R's could mean Micky Mouse is elected floor leader.
· You never want to be the guy that benefits from your caucus losing seats which is exactly where Plocher is. Unfortunately for Dean, Republicans will do better than expected in tight House seats.
· The Trent folks sound extremely confident, while the Plocher allies are saying it'll be a close race. This leads me to believe Trent wins.
Who Won the Week?
Andrew Koenig – With nearly $600K+ in money rolling into his PAC since the start of the month, Koenig’s team has plenty of fuel for the final sprint to Election Day.
Doug Beck – While Republicans circle wagons in Senate 15 and 19, Beck gets less thrown at him down in Senate 1.
Nick Schroer – Intention is nine-tenths of residency law.
Eric Schmitt – As if Schmitt wasn’t already cruising to re-election, now his opponent didn’t have his taxes paid up and signed an affidavit stating otherwise?
Find a downloadable version here.
Two New MEC Opinions
The Missouri Ethic Commission released two new opinions…
· 130.031 and Article VIII, Section 23 Candidates may reuse campaign signs from previous elections. There is no reporting required by this use, but the Commission recommends that the transfer of signs from the old committee to the new committee be documented in campaign finance reports as a Miscellaneous Receipt. This type of transfer is not prohibited by the Constitution’s ban on contributions between candidate committees. Read the full opinion here.
· 2020.10.CF.006 130.011, 130.041 and Article VIII, Section 23,.3 When a political party produces campaign materials endorsing a slate that includes federal and state candidates, federal law requires the party to pay for the materials with its federal account, so the expenditure must be reported to the Federal Election Commission. However, state law establishes contribution limits for the state candidates, and if the party’s expenditures are coordinated with those state candidates, such contributions must be reported and Missouri’s contributions limits would apply. Read the full opinion here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Forward PAC (pro-Rowden) - $225,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee (Republican senators).
Missouri Forward PAC - $50,000 from Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough).
Purple PAC (pro-Lavender) - $10,000 from Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee-Missouri-Out of State (Washington DC).
Majority Forward (Democratic senators) - $10,000 from Local 124 Voluntary Political Fund.
Majority Forward - $6,000 from Charter Communications.
MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Rely on Your Beliefs Fund (pro-Blunt) (Washington DC).
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from NEA Fund for Children & Public Education - Non Federal Itemized Account Missouri.
Clean and Accountable (pro-Dem) - $60,000 from Protect Missouri Freedom (pro-Dem).
MO Opportunity PAC (pro-Schmitt) - $35,000 from IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri.
IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri - $35,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Interested in Registration and Education PAC (Washington DC).
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Road to Michigan's Future (Lansing MI).
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Rogers For Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Blaine for Congress.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $11,750 from Stephens for State.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,100 from Citizens for Jeff Coleman.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,001 from Friends of Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
Franklin County Leadership PAC (pro-Schatz) - $10,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight PC.
Civic Progress Action Committee - $7,500 from BJC HealthCare.
Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $11,253 from DRIVE Committee.
Local 41 Political Action Fund - $16,202 from DRIVE Committee (Washington DC).
MO Drive Fund - $50,000 from IBT Drive Committee (Washington DC).
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $13,994 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
Devine for Judge - $14,000 from Joshua Devine.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Chuck Hatfield, Brian Wahby, Jay Wasson, Craig Stevenson, Jon Galloway, and Alex Riley.