MOScout Daily Update: Misleading COVID Dashboard - New Schmitt Ad - New CCDF Admin - RGA Hits $14M Mark and more...
New Schmitt Ad
As we head into the final stretch, Attorney General Eric Schmitt releases his latest ad. See it here. It has the feeling of a closing argument. He’s in a court room looking directly at the camera repeating the themes from his campaign. It finishes with the narrator repeating the campaign’s tagline: Eric Schmitt. Missouri’s tough-on-crime, law-and-order attorney general.
Misleading COVID Dashboard
The state’s COVID data dashboard understates the number of current deaths from COVID.
As of this morning, it reports 65 deaths in the past seven days. The number of actual deaths is certainly higher.
The discrepancy between the dashboard and reality is due to the reporting lag. It takes time – sometimes days, sometimes weeks – for deaths to show up on the state dashboard.
In the last seven days, the state has reported 195 new deaths. But because of the data lag, only 65 of those have been reported occurred within the past seven days.
This reporting lag can be seen when viewed over the course of several days. On October 20, the data dashboard showed 6 deaths occurring on October 17. By this morning, that number has been revised, more than doubling to 15.
Likewise, the October 23 death total is now 1. It was surely higher and will be revised higher over the coming days and weeks.
In the meantime, the dashboard, by showing only one death on the 23rd, gives the impression that the COVID crisis is not as severe as it truly is.
Worse than minimizing the current death toll from COVID, this format also creates the false impression that COVID deaths are rapidly declining in Missouri. It shows that deaths are down 38% by comparing last week to the week before. This is completely misleading. There is no evidence that deaths are declining, much less at 38%. That number is simply a function of the data lag.
It’s unclear if there is any way to increase the reporting time of death. Still, by formatting the dashboard as the state has, both the dashboard and its accompanying graph mislead Missourians.
RGA Total MO Investment $14M+
With their latest infusion of $1.6 million, the Republican Governors Association has now poured $14,250,000 into the state’s gubernatorial race.
The bulk of this money has been sent through their state committee to the pro-Mike Parson Uniting Missouri PAC.
Veteran Republican operative John Hancock is at the helm of the Uniting Missouri team. And they generally have been more aggressive in attacking Nicole Galloway, allowing the Parson campaign to promote a positive, feel-good message about the governor.
New Child Care Leader
Jeriane Jaegers-Brenneke has replaced Cindy Burks as Child Care Development Fund Administrator at the Department of Social Services.
There has been controversy surrounding payments to child care providers. See a Tony Messenger column on it here.
Jaegers-Brenneke who worked in DED and Revenue before Social Services is expected to brings some operational acumen to the program, working to reduce payment backlogs and improve service and communications with the providers.
Jaegers-Brenneke told child care advocates and providers that DSS was “committed to you and the Missouri citizens… We will start to process payments first in and first out… We cannot afford to lose anymore child care providers and I know this.”
The governor’s office appears to be taking the child care situation seriously, addressing issues now so that when the economy recovers there’s enough capacity to serve working parents who need child care.
Schroer Decision Appealed
The residency case against Rep. Nick Schroer has been appealed following the ruling in Schroer’s favor last week. One Dem shakes a fist: “Judge applied a new ridiculous legal standard for residency that his residency was ok because he demonstrated ‘an intent to continue to serve the constituents of the 107th.’ He even acknowledged that was the purpose of signing the illegal lease – to demonstrate he wanted to keep his residency for the purpose of the job. Plenty of police officers have lost their jobs after doing much more to maintain residency while ‘intending to continue to serve the people of the city in which they work.’”
Lobbyists Registrations
Jessica Burch Hembree added American Heart Association.
$5K+ Contributions
Republican Governors Association - Missouri 2020 - $1,600,000 from Republican Governors Association (Washington DC).
CLEAN Missouri (anti Amendment 3) - $500,000 from Open Society Policy Center (Washington DC).
Purple PAC (pro-Lavender) - $100,000 from SixteenThirtyFund (Washington DC).
Protect Missouri Freedom (pro-Dem) - $8,800 from CHIPP Political Account.
Protect Missouri Freedom - $30,000 from True North (pro-Arthur).
Clean and Accountable (pro-Dem) - $25,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) -$50,000 from Missouri Alliance for Freedom-Grace River PAC.
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Gray Ritter & Graham, P.C.
Jefferson County Republican Central Committee - $5,000 from Friends Of Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Lauren Hieger, Freddy Barnes, and Jennifer Bukowsky.