MOScout Weekender: Final MOScout Poll - Missourians Concerned about Sore Loser Prez Candidates - Hallway Predix - WWTW and more....
Final Poll Shows Little Movement
The final MOScout/Remington poll of the election cycle shows little movement in the top statewide races from the previous poll two weeks ago.
· President Donald Trump leads 50% to Joe Biden’s 45%. That 5-point difference is just a smidge tighter than the 6-point difference two weeks ago.
· Likewise, Governor Mike Parson leads Nicole Galloway 50% to 44%, just a bit closer than the 8-point margin of two weeks ago.
· Interesting to note that Remington Research changed the partisan weighting they’re using from a +9 GOP to +7 GOP.
· The poll’s final question asks about concern that the losing presidential candidate will not accept the election results. A majority of Missourians (59%) have that concern, including over 80% of Democrats…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Final Poll
Survey conducted October 28 through October 29, 2020. 1,010 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. (10/14) results in parentheses. See full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgernsen, and the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 50% (51%)
Joe Biden: 45% (45%)
Jo Jorgensen: 2% (1%)
Howie Hawkins: 1% (1%)
Undecided: 2% (2%)
Q2: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson, the Democrat Nicole Galloway, the Libertarian Rik Combs, and the Green Party candidate Jerome H. Bauer. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Parson: 50% (51%)
Nicole Galloway: 44% (43%)
Rik Combs: 2% (2% )
Jerome H. Bauer: 1% (1%)
Undecided: 2% (3%)
Q3: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Ban gifts from paid lobbyists to legislators and their employees; Reduce legislative campaign contribution limits; Change the redistricting process voters approved in 2018 by: (i) transferring responsibility for drawing state legislative districts from the Nonpartisan State Demographer to Governor-appointed bipartisan commissions; (ii) modifying and reordering the redistricting criteria. State governmental entities expect no cost or savings. Individual local governmental entities expect significant decreased revenues of a total unknown amount.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no?
Yes: 29% (28%)
No: 56% (50%)
Undecided: 15% (22%)
Q4: How concerned are you that the losing presidential candidate will not accept the election results?
Very concerned: 36%
Somewhat concerned: 23%
Not concerned: 23%
Not at all concerned: 11%
Not sure: 7%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Random Predictions
I asked for lobbyists to give me their predictions, forecasts and upset calls…
· Baker upsets Rowden (hope not but live up there and the feeling is bad)… Schupp eeks it out and McCreary becomes the senator… Senate leadership will be a mess…
· A good Dem year [but] MO Dems can’t take advantage. Galloway loses by 8. House flips 3 seats. Rowden squeaks by and Koenig wins.
· Rowden loses. And he couldn’t do anything different to win. He overperformed in 16 and Webber underperformed. This year, the make up of the district and the environment overcomes any money
· Hot take: Latest buzz I'm hearing is that Rowden is the likeliest to fall and Koenig might hang on… House Dem +5, Trent Wins… Senate Dem +2, Tony Luetkemeyer is new leader…
· St. Charles County is going to be way closer than most people think. This may be the last election cycle were Republicans win a majority of the seats there.
· Nicole's 5 point loss shows how red Missouri really is, despite the AOC crowd refusing to understand anyone or anything outside of its bubble…. Dems pick up a 1-2 Senate seats. House Dems underperform... again not actually caring to understand people not like them.
· I don't want to say this, but I believe Caleb Rowden is going to lose...too many Trump haters in Boone Co.
· Senate Dems + 1… House Dems + 2… A very optimistic prediction for repubs but the climate may have plateaued for Dems… GOVs race within 2 points. All other statewides have a larger margin since their opponents are far less funded and don’t have the “gold standard” opponent Parson faces… House floor leader race is #%^*&@....
· Missouri has half the size of the national blue wave, assuming there is one…
Who Won the Week?
Early child care advocates – Advocates cheer moves at DSS that show a commitment to taking the child center situation seriously, working so the small businesses stay open through the crisis.
Yinka Faleti – While the expectation is that the down-ballot races will all follow the top of the ticket, Faleti has distinguished himself. His strong fundraising and compelling personal story prompted one GOP consultant to say Dems should look for a fresh face like Faleti when searching for a 2022 challenger to Senator Roy Blunt.
Jason Hall – Sewing together five non-profit organizations into a new civic sail should be practically impossible with St. Louis’ turfy culture. But he did it. Let’s hope it catches wind.
Alex Garza – Missouri’s Fauci. He’s not running for anything and just calls it like he sees it. Garza says St. Louis hospitals are nearing 90% capacity due to an influx of rural patients while Governor Mike Parson says the boxed-in strategy is working. There’s no question who to believe.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee (Senate GOP) - $25,000 from Franklin County Leadership PAC (pro-Schatz).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from JeffCo Now (pro-Wieland).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Friends of Michael Bernskoetter.
CLEAN Missouri (Anti-A3) - $25,000 from Construction & General Laborers' Local 264.
CLEAN Missouri - $6,000 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663 PAC.
Protect Missouri Freedom (pro-Dem) - $20,000 from CWA-COPE Political Contributions Federal Committee.
Protect Missouri Freedom - $12,000 from Majority Forward (Senate Dems).
Protect Missouri Freedom - $12,000 from Majority Forward.
Keep Government Accountable (pro-Galloway) - $25,000 from The Simon Law Firm PC.
Missouri Forward PAC (pro-Rowden) - $12,350 from Missouri Leadership Forum PAC.
Northwest Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Hegeman) - $7,500 from Warrenton Oil Company.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Paul Quinn and Ken McClure.