MOScout Daily Update: The Battle for the Suburbs - American Federation for Children - More on Polling Oddity and more...

The Battle for the Suburbs

The heavy political fighting in Missouri is concentrated in the suburbs this cycle.

The battle so far has revolved around messaging.

Republicans made a pivot months ago to make crime the focus of their message.  Democrats have kept COVID as their main issue.

Polling from the weekend explains these strategies. Among non-partisan voters…

·         Republicans are more trusted on the issue of public safety 46%-42%.

·         Democrats are more trusted on coronavirus 47%-38%.

Lately COVID has re-emerged as the central topic of the cycle with the governor’s and the president’s diagnoses. 

But Republicans are sticking with their game plan. One Republican told me yesterday that budget cuts in Kansas City will be framed as Mayor Quinton Lucas “defunding the police.”  And “this is something Republicans will use in all their competitive races in the KC metro.”

·         It’s also possible that this election ends up being what it has seems like it would be all along: a referendum on Donald Trump.  If that’s the case will voters make exceptions in local races, so vote straight tickets depending on their love or hatred of the president.

And

The suburbs aren’t just important to the legislative races.  There’s the case to be made that if they go blue enough, it could be a winning formula for Nicole Galloway and other statewide Democrats as well.  Some believe that they can lose the rural areas by wide margins and still win statewide through high turnout in urban areas and the suburbs turning a deeper blue.

Driving the Day: Election Challenge

At noon the Missouri Supreme Court will hear SC98744, Missouri State Conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, et al. v. State of Missouri, et al., an appeal from Cole County involving challenges to the election law in light of COVID-19.

American Federation for Children Steps Up

American Federation for Children gave Sen. Andrew Koenig’s PAC, Freedom Promise PAC, $50K.  They are a pro-school choice organization in Washington DC that has played in Missouri politics for several cycles.

So far this year they’ve given $670,000 in large contributions.

That’s a sharp increase from 2018 when they contributed a total of $200,000.

See their website here.

Another $500K for CLEAN

Another $500K today from the NEA for CLEAN is listed in the large contributions.  With just a month until Election Day, one wonders if the pro-CLEANER forces will even muster a campaign, or whether this show of force will have them waving the white flag.

Readers Ponder Polling Oddity

I wrote yesterday about the strange anomaly in state polling lately: Nicole Galloway has been running behind Joe Biden.  In the most recent example, last weekend’s Remington poll had her trailing Mike Parson by 7 while Biden was losing to Trump by 5.

Some readers sent me their thoughts on the cause of this…

·         Polling oddity?  Ask Carpenters, Bob Clark, traditional Democratic groups who they like?  It’s more a reflection that people like Gov. Parson.

·         When the ads for and against Nicole Galloway started up about a month ago, my wife turned to me and asked who Nicole Galloway is and what she is running for… my wife has a pretty good grasp of Missouri politics. Nicole Galloway just isn’t a household name like a Nixon or McCaskill, especially in the rural areas where folks aren’t being pounded with her TV ads.

·         The gap between Galloway and Biden is not just because she isn't as well known, but neither is Parsons as well known so it's easier for a poll respondent to go with a partisan or incumbent response.  As hard as she is campaigning and as much money as they have available, that gap may disappear or veer to the typical trend you identified.  This notion is reinforced as Parson started running biography ads--not something incumbent statewide officeholders typically need to do.  Galloway may need to do more of that beyond her issue-focused approach.

Lobbyists Registrations

Roxen Koch added Fareway Stores Inc., and Zhou Brothers.

Gamble & Schlemeier deleted Riverwalk Enterprises, LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

CLEAN Missouri - $500,000 from National Education Association (Washington DC).

CLEAN Missouri - $20,000 from AFSCME (Washington DC).

Freedom's Promise PAC - $30,000 from American Federation for Children (Washington DC).

Freedom's Promise PAC - $20,000 from American Federation for Children (Washington DC).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $53,000 from American Federation for Children (Washington DC).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,700 from Missourians for Cody Smith.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Stephens Pharmacy Inc.

DougPac - $33,250 from Safer Families for Missouri.

DougPac - $10,000 from Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers Political Fund Account No. 1.

Fight For Reform-Missouri - $25,000 from End Citizens United Non-Federal (Washington DC).

MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Craig Porter Development, LLC.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Mary Anne Sedey.

Safer Families for Missouri - $7,500 from Dobson Berns & Rich.

Saint Charles Regional Leadership Fund - $5,500 from David Steward.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Yancy Williams.