MOScout Daily Update: Galloway Polling Memo - Koenig Ad - No New Stimulus? - McCloskeys Indicted and more....
Team Galloway: Race Within MOE
A memo from Nicole Galloway’s pollster shows the gubernatorial race within the margin of error. It also says Joe Biden is similarly within the margin of error with Donald Trump. See it here.
Between September 28 and October 2, 2020, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 600 likely Missouri voters. This survey, which was conducted among landlines and cell phones, has a margin of error of +4.1%.
State Auditor Galloway has closed the gap with incumbent Mike Parson and the gubernatorial race is within the margin of error and basically a dead-heat, with Parson at 50% support and Galloway at 48%...
· First, Vice President Biden is also running a very competitive campaign and the presidential trial heat mirrors the gubernatorial, with Donald Trump holding a narrow 50% to 48% lead.
· Second, it is clear that Governor Parson’s handling of the coronavirus issue is driving increased concerns about this leadership. Approval of Governor’s Parson handling of the pandemic has dropped by 17 points since the beginning of summer. And fully 79% of voters are aware that Governor and Mrs. Parson have contracted coronavirus — which is a high level of awareness.
· Finally, despite weeks of attacks on television by the Parson campaign and his IE allies on Nicole’s leadership and competence, our survey finds that nearly two-thirds (64%) say they approve of her performance as state auditor, compared to just 26% who disapprove…
What It Means
It’s one more data point for folks who have been insistent to me that this “race is real.” They point to a number of indicators…
· Despite the best efforts of Republicans, the real world events have kept the election centered around Trump and COVID.
· Galloway’s fundraising shows a fired-up Democratic base.
· The Republican Governors Association has continued to pump millions into the state.
· A couple House Republican candidates in seemingly safe districts have been campaigning and raising money with greater urgency.
Driving the Day: Senate 19 Debate
Sen. Caleb Rowden and His Democratic challenger Judy Baker will debate tonight at 6PM. It will be live-streamed by ABC17 in Columbia.
According to the Columbia Daily Tribune it will be followed at 7PM by a forum featuring Rep. Chuck Basye and opponent Adrian Plank, Cheri Toalson-Reisch and opponent Jacque Sample, and Rep. Sara Walsh and opponent Kari Chesney.
Koenig’s First Ad
See Sen. Andrew Koenig’s first TV ad here. It’s Koenig talking to his wife about his efforts to build a better world for their children.
But it comes off stilted. One MOScouter described it as a “scene from a bad soap opera.”
Trump Spikes Stimulus
President Donald Trump called off negotiations for a new round of stimulus via Twitter yesterday. While his “unpredictable” negotiating methods don’t foreclose the possibility that he will re-engage, right now it doesn’t seem likely. New York Times reports here.
What It Means
While the Missouri budget numbers look good right now with a $700+ million cushion, there’s concern that without another round of stimulus, the economy will flounder.
McCloskeys Indicted
Post-Dispatch reports that famous gun-wavers Mark and Patricia McCloskey were indicted yesterday.
The couple was indicted on felony charges of unlawful use of a weapon and evidence tampering. The indictments were filed under seal Tuesday…
We’ll see if Missouri Republicans pick up the McCloskeys as a cause celebre again. There is a bit of a difference between exercising your 2nd Amendment rights and evidence tampering…
Another $250K for CLEAN
Continuing their streak, CLEAN recorded another six-figure check again yesterday. This one is $250,000 from SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council.
This means the anti-Amendment 3 campaign has raised $1.8 million since the start of the month. It’s in addition to what they report next week for their October filing.
So far it’s just crickets from the pro-Amendment 3 team, by the way.
Anti-Diversity Order
Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration’s recent anti-diversity training order is creating “confusion” in corporate America. Never underestimate the importance of regulatory certainty. Read it here.
Some U.S. business groups are pushing back against a White House directive to limit racial-sensitivity training, which has caused confusion for some private businesses with federal contracts.
Trade groups representing pharmaceutical makers, technology giants and advertising agencies have issued statements protesting President Trump’s executive order. They say the order attacks free speech and undermines workplace equity. As they seek to understand the directive, some companies are putting diversity training on pause, while several federal agencies have canceled scheduled events.
The executive order, issued on Sept. 22, prohibits federal agencies, companies with federal contracts, and recipients of federal grants from participating in training that “promotes race or sex-stereotyping or scapegoating.” The Trump administration threatens to suspend or cancel federal contracts with companies that violate the order.
Many major U.S. companies have federal contracts, and many universities and hospitals receive federal grants….
New Commmittees
Tiffany Poke formed a candidate committee (Poke Committee) to run for Senate 7 as an Independent.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jerry Dean Hobbs added K12.
Michael Sean Kelley deleted
David McCracken and Richard McIntosh deleted K12.
$5K+ Contributions
CLEAN Missouri - $250,000 from SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council.
CLEAN Missouri - $20,000 from RS McNally (Austin TX).
Clean and Accountable - $25,000 from Protect Missouri Freedom.
Missouri Gaming PAC - $14,000 from Penn National Gaming Corp (Las Vegas NV).
Safer Families for Missouri - $10,000 from Stueve Siegel Hanson LLP.
A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.
The Madison PAC - $5,250 from MBL Development CO.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeff Harris, Zach Wyatt, and Kenny Ross.