MOScout Daily Update: Dems Grapple with Future - Two Buses - Axiom Milestone and more...
Dems Grapple With Future
Missouri Democrats are digesting last week’s election results which saw a series of disappointments: losses across all statewide offices, the passage of a ballot proposal they worked against, and only a single legislative pick-up despite the belief that momentum and the map was on their side this year. Here are three new realities the Missouri Democratic Party may be facing soon.
First, the suburbs will not save you. Democrats had mistakenly calculated that suburban women – turned off by Trump – would join the Democratic fold and reconfigure the electoral equation in Missouri. The hope had been than cities + suburbs > exurbs + rural. That wasn’t the case.
· St. Louis County and Boone County refused to yield even one legislative pick-up.
· Jefferson County which was purple a few cycles ago has turned completely red. I was told that Rep. Dan Shaul’s race would be the closest in JeffCo. It was: he won 65%-35%.
· Meanwhile, the rural tallies were blowouts. GOP votes murdered Dems in rural Missouri. Mercer County top of the ticket went 86%-12%; Barton County was 85%-13%.
Second, The Missouri Democratic Party needs a bigger tent. If you want to be competitive in the suburban and rural districts – or at least not get killed – you have to allow for some ideological flexibility.
· Dems do identity diversity well, but then get dogmatic on some issues. When some suggested that it was OK to be a pro-life Democrat, it sparked a NYTimes article.
· Instead, Dems could reinvent their core platform around the economic issues to which Missourians have responded well. The hike in the minimum wage, and expansion of the Medicaid program were both winners at the ballot.
Third, their core constituencies will become more strategic. Labor and trial attorneys have been pillars of the Democratic Party’s fundraising machinery for decades. That may change in the future. We’ve already seen it start.
· The Carpenters have been willing to play footsie across traditional lines. But it would make sense to see labor and trial attorneys shifting even more of their resources to identify and back moderate Republicans.
· One politico referenced Kansas where there’s a distinction between conservative Republicans and moderate Republican, creating triangular politics around certain issues. He says you could see labor money “being allocated closer to a 50-50 split.”
· This year’s Senate primaries would be the case study where Republicans Elaine Gannon and Karla Eslinger were wins for labor.
COVID Notes
Post-Dispatch reports that the freshmen bus tour will have two buses: one requiring face masks and the other optional. One lobbyist jokes: you mean a Democratic bus and a Republican bus?
Rep. Dottie Bailey on Facebook says she’s quarantining: Everyone is aware that I have worked against government encroachments on our liberty and the rights of private business due to COVID policy. That being said it is important to use liberty responsibly and take personal precautions. Recently through a harmless event my family was exposed to COVID. We will all be tested today and quarantined until the results are returned….
St. Louis County Executive Sam Page and St. Louis City Mayor Lyda Krewson warned new restrictions may be coming if cases continue to rise. See the PD report here.
Axiom Milestone
This week, Axiom Strategies elected its 100th member of Congress since the company’s founding, and helped score victories for half of the incoming U.S. Senate freshman class, rounding out successful campaigns for more than 350 Republicans all over the country. In the 2020 cycle, between candidate, independent and party committee expenditures, the Axiom network’s efforts helped to flip five seats from Democrat to Republican, helped maintain the GOP’s majority in the U.S. Senate by assisting or running three Senators’ elections including 50 percent of the incoming Freshman class, and scored 94 Congressional wins (with 11 races still being counted). At the state and local level, Axiom helped carry more than 250 Republicans to victory, with 87 wins in our home state of Missouri, including the Governor and Attorney General seats… This campaign cycle, Axiom sent 57.74 million pieces of direct mail, knocked on 1.2 million doors, placed 5,976 media buys, conducted 853 polls, filed 225 compliance reports, and compiled 152 research books…
Help Wanted
Missouri State Alliance of Boys & Girls Clubs Seeks Executive Director. “Under the oversight and supervision of the BGCA Government Relations Lead Director and Board of Directors of the Missouri State Alliance, and in cooperation with Boys & Girls Clubs of America, the Executive Director is responsible for the hands-on, daily management of the state legislative, state funding efforts and business requirements in support of the Alliance. Responsible for developing and maintaining positive relationships with key state government officials and lobbyists. Works closely with the Alliance Board and local clubs to develop statewide projects and programs…”
Send cover letter and resumes to mwatrous@bgca.org with Subject: Missouri BGC Director Search Committee.
Lobbyists Registrations
Gamble & Schlemeier added Code.org.
James Foley, Andy Foley, Tony Dugger, and Chris Liese added Missouri Association of Career Fire Protection Districts.
Francis G. Slay added SirenGPS, Inc.
Sarah Wood Martin added Express Medical Transporters, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
CLEAN Missouri - $50,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $22,000 from 417 PAC (pro-Trent).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,001 from Committee to Elect Bruce DeGroot.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. PAC.
MO Chamber PAC - $12,500 from Southwestern Bell Telephone Company, d/b/a AT&T Missouri.
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $10,000 from CFM Insurance.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Chris Schappe.