MOScout Daily Update: Time for COVID Action? - Oct Revenues - Reed Files Committee - Judge Corrigan and more...

Time for Action on COVID Control?

According to the state’s data dashboard, COVID is increasing all across Missouri. 

·         1,965 hospitalizations reported on Sunday.  That’s about triple the 600 level of the summer. (The hospitalization data from before July is no longer shown on the dashboard’s chart.)

·         “As of Friday, hospitals in the St. Louis region were at 90% capacity and in some intensive care units, already over capacity, [according to Dr. Alex Garza with the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force.]”  See it here.

·         Daily cases continue to drive higher despite no meaningful change in the amount of testing.

·         Positivity rates also have consistently climbed, especially in rural Missouri

·         And the dashboard says there’s been an average of 10 death/day during the past seven days.  I’ve written before about how the dashboard is presenting death data in a misleading way.  The actual death rate now is around 20/day as best I can tell.  And its trajectory is not decreasing.  The dashboard is “rigged” to almost always show a decreasing rate of death. 

For months the Parson administration talked about the “boxed in” strategy.  There’s no place left to box in the virus.  For months they’ve talked about monitoring the data.  At what point does the data move you to extraordinary action?  Is it when deaths are at 25 a day? 50 a day?  Where’s the point?

Why It Matters

The “balanced” approach isn’t balanced if the virus’ spread sinks the economy.

A new spike in COVID cases is an economic risk.  For example, read this NYTimes reports on the October jobs report.  See it here. 

The Labor Department reported Friday that employers added 638,000 jobs in October… But the engines behind much of the gain — bars and restaurants, which added 192,000 jobs, and retailing, which picked up 104,000 — represent some of the jobs most at risk from a resurgence in coronavirus cases.  Public health experts have linked a return to indoor dining and drinking establishments with increased cases of Covid… Similarly, if apprehensive consumers stay away from shopping centers, retail hiring could be curtailed as the year-end shopping season approaches…

And

One political veteran surveys the political landscape for Governor Mike Parson now: Parson has secured his second term as governor, which will be his final four years as chief executive because of constitutional term limits. He routed his opponent by 16.6 percentage points.  Parson is at a pinnacle of political popularity. But at age 65, with no aspirations to go to Washington, he may opt to retire from public life after this term. Parson has political capital to burn with pretty much no personal electoral consequence…

Meanwhile, Cole County, where lawmakers are gathering this week, has a fast-rising case count.

Skilled nursing facilities and the two Jefferson City hospitals are laden with cases. Businesses are closed due to COVID19 staffing issues. For example, popular biscuits and gravy spot Mel’s Country Cafe was closed on Sunday, as was Panera Bread, so we had no hazelnut coffee and quiche...

Governors don’t know when they start a term what will end up defining it. Mel Carnahan never contemplated the historic 1993 flooding that swamped the state six months after he was sworn in, but he won acclaim as a calm, decisive crisis manager. Jay Nixon couldn’t have foreseen the Joplin tornado and Ferguson’s upheaval as his administration’s high and low milestones.

For Parson, COVID19 is critical connective tissue of his first and second terms. Will Parson, at the peak of his political power, seize this moment to finally do the right thing?

One thing he won’t have to worry about now is Democratic fire - Nicole Galloway was cool with a mask mandate.

October Revenues

Net general revenue collections for October 2020 decreased 4.2 percent compared to those for October 2019, from $659.6 million last year to $631.9 million this year.

Net revenue for the fiscal year to date revenue is $3.7 billion, up about 25% from a year earlier.  That means we’re running about $750 million ahead of last year.  This is mostly attributable to the move of last year’s Tax Day to this fiscal year.

The fear is that we’ll slowly give back the gains if the economic recovery sputters.  Remember: the unemployment rate is largely meaningless right now.  There are currently 129,017 fewer Missourians working than there were a year ago.  See the labor report here.

Reed Forms Exploratory Committee

Lewis Reed, president of the St. Louis board of Aldermen, formed an exploratory committee late last week.  See the paperwork here.  He’s exploring another mayoral bid.  Reed ran for mayor in 2013 and 2017, losing to Francis Slay and Lyda Krewson respectively.

So far, Tishaura Jones, Dana Kelly, and Cara Spencer have also announced their candidacy.  It looks like another free-for-all election, but with the passage of Proposition D last week, the calculus has changed a bit.  The top two vote-getters in the March primary will have a run-off in April.  My guess is that it will allow for incumbent Krewson’s opposition to consolidate in a way that it didn’t four years ago.  Of course, I must add: we’ll see….

Judge Corrigan

Governor Mike Parson appointed William M. Corrigan, Jr. as Circuit Judge for the 21st Judicial Circuit. He will fill the Circuit Judge vacancy created by the retirement of the Honorable John Warner, Jr.  Mr. Corrigan, of St. Louis, currently serves as a partner at Armstrong Teasdale LLP. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame in Indiana and a Juris Doctor from the University of Missouri-Columbia School of Law…

Corrigan was the Republican nominee St. Louis County Executive in 2010, losing to Democrat Charlie Dooley.

And Now This

Post-Dispatch reports that “Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the gun-toting couple who gained recognition after confronting protesters passing by their home in the Central West End, have sued a United Press International photographer and the wire service, alleging a photo that has risen to international prominence was taken on their property.  In a lawsuit filed Friday in St. Louis Circuit Court, the McCloskeys accuse UPI photographer Bill Greenblatt of trespassing to capture one of the most iconic images of the confrontation between the McCloskeys and protesters on their way to Mayor Lyda Krewson's house.  The couple, known for being litigious even before the June 28 encounter, said  Greenblatt's photo has contributed to their ‘significant national recognition and infamy.’”

eMailbag Hodge-Podge

·         Skepticism from conservatives on the MO Indy is warranted… After leaving legacy newspapers to join a nonprofit they will have to prove they are still journalists. The best thing they can do is make sure democratic operatives and office holders are as pained by their calls and stories as conservatives may or may not be. It’s not about their donors.

·         Finally Jean Evans appears from a reader in your column that she deserves credit for something. Their acknowledgements were a bit short. She should also get some of the credit for the big Repub year. She certainly would have gotten the blame had the opposite occurred.

·         Dark money promoted ad smearing a group for being funded by dark money when it isn’t.

·         Jeff Roe is proven right that there is a group of previously nonvoting, very conservative white males that have been energized by Trump…  If Trump loses do they return to political hibernation, or stay engaged?

·         Seems that pack  accuses others of what they are guilty of themselves.  A funded political media outlet?  Hahahaha : )  : )

·         Another reason Parson is wrong…MO Independent publishes all their donors…https://statesnewsroom.com/support/

Lobbyists Registrations

Thomas Dempsey deleted Amazon, and added Amazon Services LLC.

Chris Moody and Jim Moody deleted DXC Technology Company and added Gainwell Technologies LLC.

Jeffrey Altmann deleted Morelock Builders & Associates.

$5K+ Contributions

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $11,114 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Kathy Swan.