MOScout Weekender: Long Will Run Again - Hallway on Session Threats - WWTW and more...

Long Will Run Again in 2022

This week, I’ve mentioned a few possible successors to Congressman Billy Long who pledged to only serve six terms during his first campaign for office.  In response one insider close to the campaign says definitely: Billy Long is running again.

And a second source offers a further explanation: There is no reason for him not to seek another term. Congressional Republicans will be poised to take the majority. To do so, they will need people like Billy who raise money for the NRCC. In addition, with Joe Biden likely to become the next president, voters in SWMO will want Billy to stay and fight the liberal Biden administration.

A Few Words About Remington/MOScout Polls

There’s been widespread disappointment with the polling across the country.  President Donald Trump has gone so far as to allege a conspiracy among pollsters to suppress turnout.

Here in Missouri, there was almost no public polling done, except for Remington Research Group’s polls, conducted on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Our polls underestimated Republican support.

The final poll showed Trump winning Missouri by 5 points and Mike Parson winning by 6. It did not show what occurred: a rout.

Trump won by 15.

Parson won by 17.

Kehoe won by 20.

Ashcroft won by 24.

The simplest answer to the discrepancy is that our poll’s partisan weighting underweighted Republicans.  Voters don’t register a party affiliation in Missouri.  Past election data and judgement is used to determine weighting.

During the election cycle, I received occasional criticism from Democrats that Remington’s GOP weighting was too high.  And I never heard from Republicans saying it was too low.

This makes sense because Remington is a “Republican” firm.  It is owned by Jeff Roe whose Axiom consulting firm is known for running hard disciplined campaigns on behalf of Republicans all across the country.

But also, Remington’s polls were not out of line with other public and private polling.  Except they sometimes showed even closer margins.

I don’t tell Remington how to run their polls, set their weighting etc.  They are paid for to make those calls according to their expertise.  However, it won’t surprise me to see a heavier Republican weighting as we look toward 2022.

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Biggest Worries for Next Session

I asked my lobbying survey group what they saw as the greatest threat to a productive legislative session next year.  Senate Republican infighting lead the divided response with some people offering their own answer, the still out of control COVID virus. 27 replies…

RESULTS

1. House-Senate infighting… 11.1%

2. 2nd floor-3rd floor infighting… 11.1%

3. Senate GOP infighting… 37.0%

4. Inexperienced legislators… 7.4%

5. Congressional redistricting blow-up… 11.1%

6. Something else… 22.2%

Sample of Comments

·         Tie between inexperienced legislators and a yet-to-be-identified issue that will bring the building to a halt (maybe Wayfair?)

·         The conservative caucus emerges as Senate’s de facto leadership

·         More specifically, 2nd floor - House infighting…

·         Its the same every year no matter what - senate in-fighting in the GOP. At this point, part of the problem is that the conservative caucus knows exactly what they want and don't want. In contrast, the entire GOP caucus seems to only care about the next shiny thing.

·         I’m laughing because COVID precautions should be the number one cause but it will still be a hoax in January.

·         This is a really hard question to answer, but I have to believe the powder keg is the conservative caucus in the Senate coupled with a likely reluctance by leadership to shut them down from the beginning.

·         But really it’s all of the above. And all of the above will likely happen.

Who Won the Week?

Cindy O’Laughlin – The governor’s announcement on changing the quarantine policy for schools is something she’s been working on for weeks.

Aaron Baker – See above.

MOChamber and AIM – Business groups get a top priority, COVID immunity, added to the special session.

MO Women – 2021 will see a record number of women in the Senate chamber.  Nearly a third of the body will be women, 11 of the 34 senators.  And a majority of them, 6 of the 11, will be Republicans. Five years ago, there was just one Republican woman in the Senate.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $7,695 from Laborers' Supplemental Dues Fund.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Mayor Lyda Krewson, and Kelli Dunaway.