MOScout Daily Update: MO Cemented Red - Trump Parson Romp - Ashcroft Name Still King - Trent Bid Buoyed? - Redistricting Redo and more...
The Big Picture
Last night cemented Missouri’s status as a solid red state.
· Donald Trump trounced Joe Biden in Missouri. Trump’s 15-point margin 56.8% to 41.2% was closer to his 2016 18-point win than the single digit range polls showed through the campaign.
· Mike Parson beat Nicole Galloway by 17-points (57.1% to 40.5%), largely echoing the top of the ticket.
· Down-ballot races were all GOP romps as well. Republicans won with with 20% margins, the highest being Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s 60.5% win over his Democratic challenger’s 36.2%.
· Congresswoman Ann Wagner held off Sen. Jill Schupp comfortably 51.9% to 45.4%.
· Democrats only manage to flip on state House seat (Springfield’s House 135), and the Senate remained frozen (Dems held Senate 1, and GOP held Senate 15 and 19). Republicans retained their supermajorities in both chambers.
Coming: MOScout’s New Legislators Guide
Hitting your inbox later this morning… A handy guide to the 47 new House members. It includes pictures, brief biographies, and contact information for each new legislator.
Amendment 3 Passes
One reader dryly texted: Polling may have been off on Amendment 3. MOScout’s polling last weekend had the proposal underwater, but it narrowly passed with 51%. This undoes the CLEAN Missouri, and brings back the bipartisan commissions.
Amid a night of big Republican wins this might be one of the biggest. CLEAN would have probably claimed a dozen Republican House seats in 2022.
· One insider gives props to the speaker-elect: “Rob Vescovo deserves a ton of credit for the passage of Amendment 3. When the money folks abandoned the effort, he had the gumption to push for a vote and put it on the ballot anyway. Rob is an aggressive leader and not afraid of a fight.”
And
CLEAN, the political entity, isn’t going away. From their concession email: “[W]e are committed to ensuring as fair an outcome as possible when new maps are drawn in 2021… The broad, bipartisan coalition that passed the Clean Missouri Amendment will be active and engaged in the 2021 redistricting process…”
More on Statewides
· Jay Ashcroft was the #1 vote-getter in the state. For anyone starting the handicapping for a possible U.S. primary (if Roy Blunt retires), the power of the Ashcroft name will have to be considered. I am told they only spent $50K on their media.
· Polling had a much tighter race for president and governor. But one phenomenon that polls did correctly capture, Nicole Galloway ran slightly behind the national Democrat. Some credit for that must go to the unyielding Uniting Missouri PAC ads. Uniting spent over $15 million. John Hancock and David Barklage quarterbacked that PAC.
· Rich Finneran’s concession speech (from his hotel room? See it here) says that “a few minutes ago I spoke on the phone to Eric Schmitt to congratulate him on winning tonight's election.” I’m told that Finneran must have been speaking “aspirationally” as he did not speak to Schmitt or anyone on Schmitt’s campaign team on Tuesday night.
· There were about 200,000 more votes cast in 2020 than 2016.
More on House Races
Amid predictions that Dems could grab as many as 7 seats, their 1-seat pick-up had Republicans buoyed. But it was even closer than that…
Betsy Fogle knocked off incumbent Rep. Steve Helms by a tiny margin (.2% or 34 votes), and the Dems had a couple of scares themselves…
In House 21, Rep. Robert Sauls came thisclose to being upset. He won re-election by 25 votes! And in House 99, a relatively new Dems seat, incumbent Trish Gunby won by 1.8%, or 371 votes. A little stronger Republican wind and this could have been a +1 GOP year.
· KUDOS from a reader: “Chase Campbell had one heck of a night at HRCC in a year where Republicans should have lost 6-7 seats. He will be an asset for Missouri Republicans and continue the tradition of HRCC defying odds for years to come.”
But
Sometimes the good news brings bad news, and Republicans now have a bit of a problem after winning House 34. This is Rebecca Roeber’s seat. She passed away, and her husband Rick Roeber ran. He has been accused publicly by his children of sexual abuse. Some have suggested that Republicans should refuse to seat him. How will they handle the situation? Will Republicans ignore the accusations?
Driving the Day: House Leadership Race
One lobbyist texted me last night that the Republicans’ great night in House races benefitted Rep. Curtis Trent’s majority leader bid. He sees Trent picking up a number of the new legislators. The larger the incoming class, the stronger Trent’s vote count. We’ll see…
More on Senate Races
“[A]fter all the hype about SD15 flipping, Lauren Arthur’s race ended up being closer than Koenig/Lavender.” That statement pretty well sums up the night for Dems. Sen. Andrew Koenig easily prevailed over Democrat Deb Lavender. The same tipster credits Koenig’s hard work: “I would put Koenig’s ground game up against anyone’s in the state.” But the St. Louis County suburbs didn’t swell as Dems hoped – indicated by CD-2 results.
Floor Leader Caleb Rowden’s re-election should keep the current Senate leadership team in place. One observer: “At the center of nearly every Republican ‘upset’ or overperformance for the last eight years has been Jonathan Ratliff, and there is no better candidate/consultant duo in Missouri than Ratliff and Caleb Rowden. The last time Missouri has seen anything like them was Barklage/Kinder.”
The Conservative Caucus has its original six members, plus the addition of Sen-elects Rick Brattin and Mike Moon. They’ll be a force again in the coming session.
Pick’em Winner
Heath Clarkston wins the MOScout Pick’em Contest. He was the only MOScouter to correctly predict the nine races. Honorable mention to David Jackson who only missed one race. (This is Jackson’s second second-place finish!)
Lobbyists Registrations
John Bardgett, Jacqueline Bardgett, Mark Habbas, Erika Leonard, and Chris Roepe added Missouri Association of Career Fire Protection Districts.
Tracy King added Strategic Capitol Consulting LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
CLEAN Missouri (Anti-Amendment 3) - $6,000 from Laborers Local No 1104.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from CFM Insurance.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missourians for Cody Smith.
The 1821 PAC - $10,000 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from 1821 PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from MO Society of Anesthesiologists PAC
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from CFM Insurance.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Citizens for Hoskins.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer).
Freedom Incorporated - $10,000 from LIUNA Local 110.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Amy Gunn and Tony Messenger.