MOScout Daily Update: Election Day... "Vote and Chill"

The Big Picture

Despite everything – and this year there’s been a lot to include in the “everything” – it appears that the election is a referendum on the president.

Though Donald Trump has been in office for four years, he has retained his outsider status by acting idiosyncratically and at odds with all the normal rules of presidential decorum.  Most folks who were drawn to his persona four years ago still find him a worthy champion.  While those who detested him have mostly grown in their loathing.

On the other side of the ballot, Joe Biden is, by most accounts, better “liked” than Hillary Clinton.  There’s less sentiment invested in voting “against” Biden than there was to vote against Clinton.

This all suggests that the election is a referendum on Trump.

MO Turn Out

Good morning!  Even before the polls opened this morning, over 825,000 Missourians had already cast their ballot.

If the estimated turnout of 75% is correct, Missourians will cast 3.2 million votes for president, about 400,000 more than in 2016.

The turnout projections from the secretary of state’s office (see it here) doesn’t appear to favor Republicans or Democrats.

If we get some big surprises tonight, it will likely be rooted in elevated turnout.

SOS Plan

From the Secretary of State’s office…. We will not “activate” the Election Night Reporting site (enr.sos.mo.gov) until all polling places are closed and all voters have cast their ballots.  Please note, some local election authorities will report numbers prior to our office activating the Election Night Reporting site. This is to be expected, and should not cause concern.

Remember, the results posted on Election Night are unofficial. Local election authorities have two weeks after the election to report their certified results to the Secretary of State, and the Secretary’s Office must certify the state results by Dec. 8.

What To Look For Tonight

·         The top of the ticket… How close does Biden keep the presidential race in Missouri? Remington’s final poll had Trump winning by 5 points.  Morning Consult has the margin at 9 points.  Both are down significantly from his 18-point winning margin in 2016.

·         Can Galloway improve on Biden’s number? Every recent Democratic gubernatorial candidate has run ahead of the national ticket.  Yet, every poll has had Galloway running behind Biden.  Will Election Day show a reversion to this usual relationship?

·         Turnout, turnout, turnout. We’ve seen long absentee lines in the days leading up to day.  If we get surprises tonight, they’ll surely be because of spike turnout.  Missouri’s voting landscape is lumpy.  Dems want to see turnout in the urban core and some suburban communities, Republicans are counting on rural Missourah and exurban areas to win their races.

·         CD-2…  This race is being watched nationally.  It’ll either be a prime example of suburban women abandoning the Republican Party, or it’ll prove that all that talk was empty rhetoric.

·         Key Senate races – Senate 1 where most think Dems hold the seat as Scott Sifton is termed out; Senate 15 where Dems hope the suburban vote brings them a pick-up; Senate 19 where Floor Leader Caleb Rowden is fighting for a second term in a very difficult environment.

·         Key House races

o   St. Louis County – Watch House 94. Rep. Jim Murphy is considered the most vulnerable Republican. But if things get funky with a blue wave in suburban voting, there could be multiple Republicans to fall.

o   St. Charles County – Long a stronghold for Republicans, there are two races on the “flip” watch list: House 65 (Tom Hannegan) and House 106 (Sommer termed).  Will St. Chuck be in play in the decade to come? Tonight will give us the first hint.

o   Mid-MO – House 47 (Chuck Bayse) is at the top of the hit list in this area.  Turnout and the flurry of activity from the Senate race may impact this race as well.

o   St. Joseph – I think Republicans hold, but if a blue wave comes it could topple former St. Joe mayor Bill Falkner (House 10)

o   KC suburbs – Far a variety of reasons, Dems are on the offense in the KC area.  House 16 (Northlands) has a termed Rep, putting it in play; House 31 (Blue Springs) Dems have a great candidate against an incumbent who may be too conservative for the district; House 34 (Lee’s Summit) the Republican candidate is accused of terrible crimes.

o   Springfield – Dems have put a lot of effort into flipping House 135 (Steve Helms).  They like their candidate, but the GOP has fought equally hard.  Also, some think House 134 (Haahr termed) could be closer than expected.

And…

Amendment 3 – MOScout readers expect it to fail.  If it goes down, the CLEAN Missouri process for redistricting will move forward.  That will throw even more uncertainty into legislators’ plans as they await the new lines for their 2022 races. 

Remington on Their MO Shift

RRG conducts more political surveys in the United States than any other pollster. This cycle we have conducted over 800 surveys for private clients at the state leg, congressional and statewide level. After reviewing national environmental factors and polling response rate specifically in Missouri, we made the decision to throttle down on GOP participation margin to +7. It is not a significant shift from past elections but it will matter in close races at the statewide level.

Where They Are on Election Night

·         Governor Mike Parson will attend the Missouri GOP election night watch party In Springfield, Missouri at the White Oaks Conference Center to watch the results of this year's historic election.

·         Auditor Nicole Galloway will hold an election night event at the Tiger Hotel in Columbia.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard AuBuchon added Aurora Organic Dairy.

Shannon Cooper, Nancy Giddens, Salvatore Panettiere, and Matthew Roney added Untied WE.

Tom Dempsey added St. Charles County.

Gamble & Schlemeier added PeopleForBikes Coalition.

Todd Ryan Halstead added Theatre Owners of Mid-America.

Richard McIntosh added The Catalyst Capital Group, Inc.            

Morgan Matthew Mundell added American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri.

Steven Tilley added Kiel Center Partners.

Cara Alexander, Rodney Gray, and Susan Henderson Moore deleted Friendship Village Senior Services.

John William Payne deleted Curador Holdings Inc.

Matthew Roney deleted Spectrum Consulting Group LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Forward PAC (pro-Rowden) - $100,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Oakstar Bank.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Spirit of Missouri.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from BNSF Railway Company.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $7,350 from MR PAC MO Retailers Assoc PAC.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $5,450 from John Brunner.

MO Republican Party - $14,000 from Michael Ketchmark.

MO Republican Party - $14,000 from Susan Ketchmark.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $11,756 from Highlander Political Strategies, LLC.

Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $10,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.

MO Opportunity PAC (pro-Schmitt) - $12,350 from Missouri Leadership Forum.

Planned Parenthood Votes-St Louis and Southwest Missouri - $10,000 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Clint Zweifel, Kim Cella, Kevin McManus, and Emily Waggoner.