MOScout Daily Update: Tea Leaves for Tomorrow - Hospitals Urge COVID Action - 2022 Sneak Peek and more...
Parade of Tea Leaves
· I chose the most hotly contested races for the MOScout’s Pick’em Contest, but all entrants were unanimous in one of their choices… everyone chose Rep. Doug Beck to win Senate 1. A Lenihan victory would bust the bracket…
· Also, I averaged everyone’s tie-breaker guess of what % would vote Yes for Amendment 3. The average response was 45.6%.
· Reader on Senate 19: There may be lots of Trump haters in Columbia. However, in rural Boone county where I am, I’m seeing more Trump signs, flags, etc than I did in 2016. Can rural Boone, Cooper, and Columbia moderates offset losses? Additionally, I wonder if there’s a significant college student change in registration due to Covid. For example: are registering locally or keeping home residence locations in a different way than other years due to Covid and the massive shift to absentee voting? If so, it helps Caleb.
· Reader on gov’s race: If I were the incumbent Governor and my number on Saturday before election day I want a little more than 50% as most last minute decisions are against incumbents…
· Morning Consult has Trump winning Missouri by 9, 52%-43%. See it here.
· Remington Research made a subtle shift in the partisan weighting of their Missouri poll, going from +9 GOP to +7 GOP.
Caucuses This Week
Tomorrow night will be exciting, but the Republican caucuses later this week may be more important determining how session unfolds.
The Senate GOP will caucus Thursday before special session. The House GOP will caucus at 1PM on Wednesday. House leadership races are:
Speaker pro tem: Bill Kidd, John Wiemann.
Floor leader: J Eggleston, Dean Plocher, Curtis Trent.
Assistant floor leader: Hannah Kelly, Jeff Porter, Lou Riggs.
Whip: Allen Andrews, Don Mayhew.
Caucus Chair: Chris Dinkins, Brenda Shields, Sara Walsh.
Secretary: Ann Kelly, Tom Hannegan.
Axios on Staying Sane Tomorrow Night
Axios offers a primer on staying sane tomorrow. See it here.
1. Vote and then chill until late Tuesday night. There'll be dumb rumors, wild speculation and armchair projections, all of it meaningless.
2. Don't expect a quick, clear winner: We can't stress enough the chance of it taking days to fully count mail-in and absentee votes, to determine the real outcome in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…
4. Don’t share social-media posts that aren't from a source you trust and know well. Period. Too many people share too much garbage too often…
8. Brace yourself for 78 days of drama and turmoil from Nov. 4 through the inauguration…
MOIndy: Hospitals Urge Action on COVID
The Missouri Independent landed its first big scoop, a recorded conference call between hospital officials from around the state trying to impress upon the Parson administration the severity of the COVID crisis. Read it here. Listen to the conference call here.
· The call shows the increasing stress health providers are feeling as Missouri COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations hit record levels. “I respectfully ask what is our plan to address the increased cases and hospitalizations?” asked Texas County Memorial Hospital CEO Wesley Murray, who added: “We don’t seem to have a plan to try to decrease the cases and the hospitalizations.”
2022 Anyone?
It’s never too early to starting talking about the next election…
The main event for 2022 Missouri politics will be the race for the US Senate seat, currently occupied by Roy Blunt.
There’s no shortage of speculation about what will unfold in 2022. Here are the various scenarios.
First, Eric Greitens looms. He’s wasted little time seeking to rehabilitate his political reputation, appearing on cable TV shows and keeping an active Twitter account, proclaiming that he was the victim of liberal prosecution. He also maintains an active campaign account, left-over money amounting to $266,000.
Blunt’s favorability ratings are generally a bit lower than other Missouri Republicans. One politico from Southwest Missouri attributes this to his demeanor. “He’s a 1970s politician in 2020.” By that he means that Blunt works on bringing federal money back to Missouri. “He’s the reason money’s here for the Rocheport Bridge and I-49.” Blunt doesn’t grandstand or bomb-throw. He doesn’t chase hot-button issues to excite the base. And that’s what could make him vulnerable to someone like Greitens.
However, one Republican operative dismisses a possible Greitens challenge. He says that all of Greitens misdeeds, a “treasure trove” of opposition research, will be quickly trotted out for voters if he re-enters politics. Except this time there would be a ton of money from a Blunt campaign to amplify it. But this consultant did raise another possibility: that Blunt might not run for re-election.
Blunt is 70. He’d be 72 by 2022’s Election Day. That’s not a disqualifier. By Senate standards that’s middle-age. The average age of a US Senator is 62; the oldest is California’s Diane Feinstein is 87.
Some think that Blunt is interested in continuing to serve because he sees an outside chance – if various pieces fell into place – that he could eventually ascend to become majority leader. But if Blunt retired, folks assume that Greitens and others would certainly jump into the void.
Missouri politicians who would be serious contenders are Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, Attorney General Eric Schmitt. It would have the makings of a free-for-all primary. And in a crowded field, Greitens could take the far-right base with an “outsider” message and have a shot at winning, despite his previous scandals.
Finally, there’s the other side of the ballot. Because Republicans have recently dominated the statewide offices, they have a naturally deeper bench. It is difficult to leap from a regional politician to a statewide politician. As a result, there are very few Democratic names mentioned. Some of the Democrats’ best candidates of the past are Claire McCaskill, Clint Zweifel, and Chris Koster. They’ve all transitioned to the private sector where they have successful careers. They’re not coming back to politics.
The name that resurfaces in conversations is Jason Kander. He only lost by 3% to Blunt in 2016 while Donald Trump won the state by 18%. So who knows, maybe we’ll see a Blunt-Kander rematch in 2022.
eMailbag on House Fundraising
· [You] forgot to shout out Becky Willard. She has been critical to [HRCC’s fundraising].
· On HDCC fundraising worth noting that several coordinated campaign items appear to run through the committee. Not taking away from HDCC effort but the fundraising may look inflated because of that.
Lobbyists Registrations
LaWanda Asuquo added LaWanda V. Asuquo.
David Segal added Sixteen Thirty Fund.
Tom Rackers deleted City of Jefferson.
$5K+ Contributions
A Stronger Missouri (pro-Galloway) - $15,000 from Keep Government Accountable (pro-Galloway).
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,550 from MO National Education Assoc – PAC.
Association of MO Electric Cooperatives (AMEC PAC) - $10,000 from Sho-Me Power Electric Cooperative.
Purple PAC (pro-Lavender) - $10,000 from UAW V CAP.
Democratic Campaign Committee of St Louis City - $7,500 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Peggy McGaugh, Susan Carlson, Richard Craighead, and Shane Kinne.