MOScout Daily Update: Incumbents No-Win Situation - The Impossible Budget Puzzle - Ridgeway to Retire and more...
Coronavirus Crisis Keeps Chugging
How fast is this crisis moving? Since I hit send Thursday morning and took off for a long weekend…
· Missouri had 24 confirmed cases on Thursday morning… that’s quadrupled. This morning that number is 106. (And as Rudi Keller points out, the 106 number is already out-of-date because it lists Louis County at 23 cases and they are reporting 55 cases.)
· St. Louis and Kansas City leaders instituted a “stay-at-home” order for their residents, with “non-essential” businesses ordered shuttered.
· Governor Mike Parson waived work requirements for SNAP, and issued an order forbidding social gatherings of more than ten people.
· House leaders announced that one of their own members had tested positive; it was revealed that the individual was Rep. Joe Runions who then issued a statement and picture from the hospital urging action.
· DESE Commissioner Margie Vandeven announced that Missouri schools would forgo testing this year.
· OA announced that “someone in suite 720 of Truman Building in Jefferson City has tested positive for COVID-19.” That’s DED main office.
Incumbents’ No-Win Situation
Health experts say that if we don’t take actions that seem extreme, we won’t slow the virus’ spread, and there will be a terrible price to pay: an overwhelmed healthcare system unable to care for tens of thousands of severe cases. They also say that if we take appropriate measures and it’s successful, it will seem like we overreacted, because we’ll never see the terrible scenario.
For leaders – especially political leaders – this presents a no-win situation.
Either fail to act and watch the disaster unfold day after day. Or act boldly, and if you’re successful folks will second-guess you and say you overreacted.
When I think about this, it feels like a very big problem for incumbents in November.
Seeds of Skepticism
There are already voices of skepticism at the aggressive action…
· From Sen. Cindy O'Laughlin’s Facebook: I understand the need for social distancing, hand washing, other cautions we are asked to take. I absolutely support those measures. I am thankful our Governor has not jumped on the "shut everyone down" mode. However, I see no time in the history of this country when perfectly healthy people have been basically confined to their homes or only able to do essential things as in Kansas City or St. Louis. Frankly I consider this unconstitutional and it needs challenged…. If you don't want to go out, don't go out. If you do then take all the precautions. Every day we all weigh risks and rewards. This is no different. As a friend said, "We could lower the speed limit to 5 mph and nobody would die but the cost is too great." We cannot crush all livelihoods for all people we just can't….
· And maybe President Donald Trump is having second thoughts as well? His all-caps tweet from last night: WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!
The Impossible Budget Puzzle
Throw out the old revenue estimates, the state budget is a now moving jigsaw puzzle…
· Before even the coronavirus went down, budgeteers were half-full of uncertainty as they compared this year’s revenues to last year’s revenues which were impacted by the withholding screw-up.
· Now the virus is unleashing economic havoc. We’re expecting an unprecedented spike in unemployment entire sectors of the economy are being put on ice. Output is tanking and it will surely hit the state’s tax receipts. But estimating the hit is nothing more than a shrugging blind-folded dart throw.
· Finally, the federal government – and Missouri with it – has postponed the April tax filing until July. This pushes another variable into the already haywire calculations.
Next
The next step for the legislature is to figure the logistics of gathering a quorum of both bodies to return to Jefferson City to pass the supplemental budget.
There’s new federal money that’s been approved and an appropriation has to be passed to receive it…
Ridgeway to Retire
Clay Commissioner Luann Ridgeway announced she won’t seek re-election. She writes:
For those serving in government as an elected official, it’s easy for service to consume every waking hour, and even some restless nights. It’s almost impossible for me to realize that I began my journey campaigning for elected office when I was 35 years old. The years have flown by and I’m now 63 looking back over nearly 26 years as an elected official, running a total of 10 primary and general elections, and winning all of them….
For the first time since 1992, my name will not be on the ballot for election. I have new things on my horizon, ventures that do not include elected office.
To be clear, I am not resigning and will serve my full term through the conclusion of 2020, which I committed to do in my last election. I still have ongoing work to complete, and promises to fulfill. When my term of office concludes, I leave Clay County with a bright future regardless of who holds our various offices or what form our county government might take….
New Committees
Aaron Craig formed a candidate committee (Citizens to Elect Aaron Craig) to run for House 67 as a Democrat.
MECID: C201201
Edwin “Jim” Hogan formed a candidate committee (Hogan for Representative) to run for House 126 as a Democrat.
New Candidate Filings
In Senate 7, Josh Swafford filed to run as a Democrat. He joins Michael Brown, and Rep. Greg Razer in the Democratic primary.
Ashley Aune filed to run in House 14 as a Democrat. That creates a primary for Rep. Matt Sain.
Tom Reed filed to run in House 62 as a Republican. He’s the third Republican to file. This is Rep. Hurst’s district; he’s termed.
Scott Cazadd filed to run in House 69 as a Republican. He’ll face Democratic Rep. Gretchen Bangert.
Jo Doll filed to run in House 83 as a Democrat. This creates a Democratic primary to replace termed. Rep. Gina Mitten.
Luke Barber filed to run in House 89 as a Democrat. He’ll face Republican Rep. Dean Plocher.
Frank DeVenuto filed to run in House 143 as a Republican. It’s now a five-way Republican primary to replace termed Republican Rep. Jeff Pogue.
Mike Lindley filed to run for House 145 as a Democrat. He’ll face Republican Rep. Rick Francis.
Lobbyist Registrations
Guy Black and Timothy Garrett O’Connell added Vi-Jon.
James Foley, Stephen Nittler, Jay Hahn, and Chris Liese added Micro Electronics Inc.
Tracy King added EMD Serono, Inc. c/o Multistate Associates Inc.
Richard McIntosh added Transformation Consultants LLC, and Medical Specialties of Louisiana.
John William Payne deleted Elavera Partnership LLC, and TerraMa Holdings LLC.
$5K+Contributions
Credit Union Political Action Committee of Missouri - $15,000 from CommunityAmerica Credit Union.
STL Approves - $10,000 from Center for Election Science.
Change STL PAC - $25,000 from BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc.
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $25,479 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
MILA PAC - $9,720 from World Acceptance Corporation.
Health Care Issues Committee of the Missouri Hospital Association - $13,200 from Southeast Health.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jacqueline Bardgett, and Tom Loehner.