MOScout Daily Update: Capitol Closed - The Coming Health vs Wealth Debate - MO Unemployment Reserves - Lembke Contra Schaaf and more...

Latest Coronavirus

·         Rudi Keller keeps track of the numbers.  See them here.  SPOILER: they’re going higher. #COVID19Missouri cases up 72% +77 total to 183

·         Missouri State Medical Association urged Governor Mike Parson to issue a “stay-at-home” order.  “If things progress as is, COVID-19 patients will deplete the state's available hospital beds, ventilators and precious personal protection equipment.”

·         Parson declined to do that, but did close the capitol for two weeks, “meaning there will be no legislative action under the dome until sometime after April 6.”

The Economic Crisis

Bloomberg News published a frightening interview with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard. See it here.  Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product...

“Everything is on the table” for the Fed as far as additional lending programs, Bullard said in a telephone interview Sunday from St. Louis. “There is more that we can do if necessary” with existing emergency authority. “There is probably much more in the months ahead depending on where Congress wants to go.”

Bullard’s grave assessment of the world’s largest economy underscores the critical need for Congress and the White House to quickly find agreement on a massive aid program…

Bullard urged that unemployment insurance cover 100% of lost income for workers, and call it “pandemic insurance” since the disruption is intended to block the spread of the coronavirus.

The St. Louis Fed’s view of the virus-related shutdowns on the economy is more dire than Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects gross domestic product to shrink at an annualized rate of 14% in the April-June period while Bank of America Corp. and Oxford Economics both see a 12% drop. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 24% plunge.

And

Wall Street Journal reports on state’s unemployment funds.  Missouri has less than a year’s reserve…  See it here.

State unemployment insurance systems across the U.S. aren’t ready for the likely surge in worker claims from the U.S. economic downturn triggered by the new coronavirus pandemic. States, which administer unemployment insurance programs, rely on employer taxes for trust-fund money that they use to pay unemployment benefits. Despite a historically long economic expansion, 22 states and jurisdictions’ unemployment trust funds are unprepared to pay out enough in unemployment benefits in the event of a recession…

Coming Debate: Health vs Wealth

President Donald Trump appears to be concerned that the economic toll will be worse than the projected overcrowded hospitals.  He’s considered a “staggered reopening” of the economy.  See Washington Post reporting here.

But in Missouri any top-down change in guidance would likely have little impact.  With St. Louis and Kansas City on lockdown, that’s two-thirds of the Missouri economy.

What It Means

·         If Trump calls for a “return to work,” the health vs wealth debate could become partisan with Republicans embracing Trump’s leadership, and Democrats rejecting it.

·         The outbreak just a week ago was a potentially unifying “war” in which all Americans had to do their part.  Suddenly the nation’s response to the outbreak will be polarizing.

·         If this scenario plays out, we’ll have Missouri’s 2020 candidates with position statements about how to deal with the virus.

Lembke Contra Schaaf

Nothing exemplifies the health vs wealth debate like former Sens. Jim Lembke and Rob Schaaf on Facebook.  Both are Republicans.  They’re friends and political allies.  And yet they have very different takes on the situation.

·         Schaaf has been keeping a running count of the cases, their doubling rate (3-4 days) and projecting when hospitals are overwhelmed.

·         Lembke has questioned if the virus has been overhyped and is another “media produced apocalypse.”

Readers React

I disagree with your ‘no-win’ assessment.  Yes, if everyone in the world collectively overreacted then you’re right, it would indeed be hard to prove that was the right course of action.  However, various countries, states and cities have responded differently, and the (in)actions of current leaders will be judged by the outcomes they produce (infection and mortality rate).  If I were an elected leader the UK study would have been enough to sway me to take dramatic action.  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

State policy makers concerned about November should all go lick a handrail. This is a global health emergency. Fuck your election and be a god damn leader already. I’m so incredibly frustrated with people I generally consider “friends”. They’re putting all of our lives in significant jeopardy. Act. Be bold. Lose an election. Let my mother have a fighting damn chance.

The governor should stay the course and not listen to the “sages” at the P-D. No one else does!

Legislative leadership should really give some consideration to the founding fathers thoughts relative to the legislative branch of government, the purpose of a public hearing and the public involvement was key to their thought process. When a society is encouraged not to gather and in Cole County prohibited from gathering to offer public testimony or participate in legislative hearings and discussions through their right to petition their government, it is time to HALT the process. Having quick and emergency meetings of legislators to approve funding for COVID-19 prevention or treatment is one thing, however, taking up issues like tax reform, PDMP, Tort reform, Biodiesel mandates etc., is just wrong… nothing other than the budget really matters and can wait until after this pandemic, next January is soon enough.

The constitution doesn’t have any flexibility on passing the budget. No budget bill can be introduced after May 8th (this year’s date) if there has been no budget passed by that time. A special session to do the budget isn’t constitutional.  Cole County orders etc. don’t apply to the Capitol. They really shouldn’t use that as an excuse to eliminate public access to the legislature in violation of the constitutional provision that the doors must be open to the public when the legislature is in session.

New Candidate Filings

Bill Babcock (Republican) withdrew from House 8.  His departure leaves four Republicans vying for the seat.  Rep. Jim Neely is term limited.

Neal Barnes filed to run for House 56 as a Democrat.  He’ll face the winner of a three-way Republican primary.  Rep. Jack Bondon is running for state senate.

Cynthia Nugent filed to run for House 115 as a Democrat.  She’ll face the winner of a three-way Republican primary.  Rep. Elaine Gannon is term limited.

Andy Leighton to run for House 147 as a Democrat.  He’ll face the winner of a two-way Republican primary.  Rep. Kathy Swan is running for state senate.

Elizabeth Lundstrum filed to run for House 161 as a Democrat. She’ll face Republican Rep. Lane Roberts.

Lobbyist Registrations

Guy Black added Dollar Tree Stores Inc., Family Dollar Stores Inc., Dollar Tree Management Inc., Dollar Tree Distribution Inc.

$5K+Contributions

Protect Missouri Freedom - $25,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, AFL-CIO.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Chris Liese, Mike Gibbons, Matt Bain, Kelly Schultz, and Tony Wyche.