MOScout Daily Update: Budget Mess - Onder Hits on Kehoe? - What Lobbyists Are Doing - Arthur PAC Gets $50K and more...

The Budget Mess

The timeline for passing the supplemental budget is being driven by two factors: health and logistical concerns, and the need to tap federal money.

April 24 is the circled date for budget watchers.  That’s when they’d like to have the supplemental passed to facilitate the state receiving emergency federal funds.  Congress’ change in the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) is most important.  It will add tens of millions of dollars to the state budget during the crisis.

To capture these funds, the Senate will need to amend the budget passed by House.  House and Senate budget leaders will presumably work in concert to ensure that the Senate’s version of the supplemental is acceptable to the House and can be easily passed.

The actual budget is beset by uncertainty.  As I wrote about on Monday, the conornavirus’ impact on state revenues is unknown – but won’t be good. 

Furthermore, pushing back Tax Day from April to July will create a whole new budget snafu. 

·         That date change moves the wave of final tax payments from the current fiscal year into the next fiscal year. 

·         One knowledgeable observer has thought through the fiscal gymnastics necessary for the state to manage its cash flow with the new tax date.  He thinks we’ll see withholds this fiscal year as a result.

Onder Hits on Kehoe?

I spoke to one insider yesterday.  And it sounds like Sen. Bob Onder is seriously considering a primary challenge to Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe. 

According to this source, Kehoe and Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick are the two statewide who are vulnerable because they haven’t raised the huge sums that Governor Mike Parson and AG Eric Schmitt have, and don’t have the instant name ID that Jay Ashcroft has.

I reported previously on a poll which tested if Kehoe was vulnerable for supporting various projects and subsidies.

Two more potential lines of attack…

·         Kehoe’s support for 2014 legislation requiring physical dealerships to sell cars in Missouri.  It was seen as a way to block Tesla’s business model.  In a campaign ad, it would be spun as self-serving, and swampy, noting Kehoe was once a car dealer.

·         Kehoe contributed $1,000 to the campaign of his former Senate colleague, Jolie Justus, last year.  Justus was running for Kansas City mayor.  A campaign ad would mention some of Justus’ liberal positions.  In a Republican primary this isn’t as bad as contributing to someone running for St. Louis mayor, but it’s still pretty bad.

We’ll see if Onder dives in.  Filing closes Tuesday.

What Are Lobbyists Doing?

While the session is on hold what are lobbyists doing?  Here’s a grab bag list…

·         Trying to get stuff done with the Governor’s office. 

·         Making sure certain clients are included on essential industry lists for shelter in place orders.

·         We are spending a lot of time collecting federal, state, and local information on response and recovery efforts to make sure that clients are continually apprised of the evolving situation and the effects that it will have on their business.

·         Very busy if you have clients in health care working on the front line.

·         Client calls about what this means for their legislation.

·         Client calls about what will happen to the budget.

·         Trying not to get sick.

Bits

·         From a NYTimes article about the virus’ impact on state legislatures… Missouri legislators, anticipating a drop in revenue, put off voting on a new budget for the fiscal year that starts this summer until they know more. “Our priorities will just have drastically changed by the time we write the budget,” said Elijah Haahr, the Republican Speaker of the House.

·         There haven’t been many large contributions during this time.  But one notable exception in today’s list is the pro-Lauren Arthur PAC, True North PAC.  It landed a $50K check. Arthur faces Republican Mickey Younghanz.

·         News Tribune reports that “the postponement of the municipal election will not affect the Jefferson City School District Board of Education's uncontested seats… Jefferson City resident Brad Bates will take office in April, replacing board member Steve Bruce….”

eMailbag on Health vs Wealth

The disparities bite again: I would be perfectly willing to take seriously the advice of Lloyd Blankfein, head of GoldmanSachs, to reopen the economy if he agrees to take the subway to work and eat food from street vendors in NYC. Same for President RealityStar, if he takes a walk through Washington each morning and shakes hands with everyone on the street. Actually he won't be in Washington -- he'll be visiting his golf resorts and would have to find places in New Jersey and Florida where ordinary people walk and work. The tradeoff for Trump and Blankfein is that hundreds of thousands of Covid deaths are worth it if the economy revives.  These little people are collateral damage…

New Candidate Filings

Mike Englert filed to run for House 20 as a Democrat.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Bill Kidd.

Joshua Dunne filed to run in House 60 as a Democrat.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Dave Griffith.

Lobbyist Registrations

Gary Burton added Bluebird Network LLC.

Jay Hahn and Stephen Nittler added Wisper ISP Inc.

$5K+Contributions

Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Iron Workers Local No 10 Political Action Fund.

True North PAC - $50,000 from United Auto Workers V Cap.

Bruce Sassmann Election Committee - $20,000 from Bruce Sassmann.

BNSF Railway Company RAILPAC Missouri - Federal Committee - $50,190 from BNSF Railway Company RAILPAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Doug Libla, Jason Holsman, Saundra McDowell, Erica Engelby, Robert Cornejo, and Mark Matthiesen.