MOScout Daily Update: Campaigns Pause - MO Gets Disaster Declaration - Cap Gets Deep-Clean - Thank God for the Grid and more...
Corona Killed the Campaign
I’ve spoken to a few political consultants in the past week who describe the state of campaign as being in hibernation at this point.
The fundraising quarter ends next week. There would normally be a flurry of activity. Instead everything is on pause. “You can’t be asking people for money at a time like this.”
Eli Yokley reports for Morning Consult (see it here): The pain may not be immediately noticeable, since campaigns proceeded as normal throughout much of the first three months of 2020. But strict social distancing measures and a potential economic downturn have Democratic and Republican strategists, campaign officials and people involved in campaign finance up and down the ballot bracing for weaker-than-expected fundraising totals in the second quarter and learning to adjust.
And
It’s not just fundraising that’s been paused. It’s really all campaigning.
· Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft formally suspended his campaign activities. See it here.
What It Means
The conventional wisdom is that this is good for incumbents. They already have some level of established name ID. It’s their opponents who need to be pressing the flesh and dialing for dollars to mount a credible challenge.
I generally agree, with the caveat that you never can quite know how a crisis will ultimately play out. Perceived terrible mismanagement could result in a “throw the bums out” attitude.
How Sharp With The Economic Decline Be?
JPMorgan Chase (March 25)
GDP: -10% (Q1), -25% (Q2)
Q2 unemployment rate: 8.5%
Wells Fargo (March 25)
GDP: 1.2% (Q1), -14.7% (Q2)
Q2 unemployment rate: 7.3%
TD Securities (March 23)
GDP: -3% (Q1), -25% (Q2)
Q2 unemployment rate: 7.4%
Morgan Stanley (March 22)
GDP: -2.4% (Q1), -30.1% (Q2)
Q2 unemployment rate: 12.8%
Bank of America (March 20)
GDP: +0.5% (Q1), -12% (Q2)
Q2 unemployment rate: 6%
The Grid, Baby
Peggy Noonan, long time Wall Street Journal analyst, said in a March 19th interview: “There are a million [coronavirus] warnings out there on a million serious things. We add one: Everything works - and will continue to work - as long as we have electricity. It’s what keeps the lights on, the oxygen flowing, the information going. Everything is the grid, the grid, the grid.”
She’s right, about how critical access to electricity is in a crisis. Going unnoticed this week was the announcement that beginning April 1 Ameren Missouri customers will enjoy another rate decrease, the second in the two years since passing SB 564 which modernized energy policy to allow an incremental $1B to improve the electric grid. Post Covid 19, policymakers in Missouri and across the country should think about policy to support continued grid buildout and grid resiliency. Infrastructure work helps the economy in booms and busts and most importantly, in crisis!
MO Gets Disaster Declaration
Press release: President Donald Trump today approved Governor Mike Parson’s request for a federal major disaster declaration for the state of Missouri. The President approved Governor Parson’s request that the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Public Assistance Program be utilized to reimburse eligible expenditures made by local governments, nonprofit organizations, and the state for emergency protective measures by first responders and others responding to the coronavirus. Governor Parson’s request for federal Disaster Unemployment Assistance and Crisis Counseling are still under review. Also under review is the Governor’s request for federal hazard mitigation assistance to identify and reduce long-term risks associated with natural disasters.
Capitol Gets “Deep-Cleaning”
MissouriNet reports that “the State Capitol in Jefferson City is being cleaned extensively daily, to protect employees and to stop the spread of the coronavirus. The Capitol has been closed to the general public since Tuesday… ‘We still have a full staff here in the governor’s office, we still have people (employees) in the Capitol every day,’ Parson says. ‘We’re doing a deep-cleaning every day it takes to make sure this building is safe as we possibly can make it.’”
New Committees
Raymond Kinney formed a candidate committee (Elect Raymond Kinney) to run for Senate 31 as a Democrat.
Gary Stroud formed an exemption committee to run for House 8 as a Republican.
Tom Reed formed a candidate committee (Tom Reed) to run for House 62 as a Republican.
Daniel Romine formed a candidate committee (Committee to Elect Daniel Romine) to run for House 134 as a Republican.
New Candidate Filings
Nick Allison filed to run for House 127 as a Republican. This creates a primary for Rep. Ann Kelley.
$5K+ Contributions
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $8,620 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Mike Leara, Mike Kelley, and Dave Stokes.