MOScout Weekender: Poll on Corona - Page Gets Building Trades - Hallway on Corona - Cook Changes CD-2 Rating and more....

Cook Changes CD-2 to Lean GOP

The widely-watched Cook Report changed it rating on the Second Congressional District race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”  See it here.

Cook Political shifts #MO02 from Likely R to LEAN R, citing @JillSchupp's impressive fundraising & statewide Democrats' overperformance in the district coupled with the decreasing margin of victory among R presidential candidates

Nexus Reviews Corona Response

In a note to clients Nexus Group details the federal package which just passed.  It also explains the situation with the state budget.  See it here.

Page Gets STL Building Trades

The St. Louis Building Trades endorsed Sam Page for St. Louis County Executive.  I’d previously written that Building Trades PAC had contributed to the pro-Mantovani PAC, Change STL.  That was wrong.  I goofed.  It was actually the Homebuilders’ PAC that made that contribution.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Coronavirus Polling

Survey conducted March 25 through March 26, 2020. 1,648 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.4%. See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 54%

Disapprove: 42%

Not sure: 4%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor?

Approve: 54%

Disapprove: 30%

Not sure: 16%

Q3: How worried are you about the spread of the coronavirus?

Very worried: 48%

Somewhat worried: 42%

Not worried: 9%

Not sure: 1%

Q4: Thinking about the coronavirus, do you think the country should re-open for business or do you think business should remain shut down indefinitely until doctors say it is safe to resume?

Re-open for business: 22%

Remain shut down: 63%

Not sure: 15%

Q5: Who do you blame for the coronavirus pandemic? The Chinese government, the U.S. government, or is no one to blame?

Chinese government: 44%

U.S. government: 13%

No one: 38%

Not sure: 5%

Q6: When do you think America will return to normal life?

April: 10%

May: 27%

June: 20%

July: 9%

August: 5%

Fall: 7%

Winter: 3%

Not sure: 20%

Q7: In the next 12 months do you expect your personal finances to be better, the same or worse?

Much better: 6%

Somewhat better: 11%

About the same: 47%

Somewhat worse: 24%

Much worse: 9%

Not sure: 3%

Q8: Do you support an amendment to the Missouri Constitution to expand Medicaid for persons 19 to 64 years old with an income level at or below 133% of the federal poverty level, as set forth in the Affordable Care Act?

Strongly support: 33%

Somewhat support: 19%

Somewhat oppose: 18%

Strongly oppose: 14%

Not sure: 16%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: How Does Coronavirus Impact the Gubernatorial Race?

I asked the lobbying corps how they saw the current crisis impacting the governor’s race. 31 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very positive for Parson… 0%

2. Somewhat positive for Parson… 3.2%

3. No impact… 25.8%

4.  Somewhat positive for Galloway… 58.1%

5. Very positive for Galloway… 12.9%

Sample of Comments

·         Too soon to know for sure

·         The incumbent is in a no-win situation. They either over-react and get criticized or under-react and seem to be less caring. I would normally say this is very positive for Galloway but it is Missouri. But Parson looks a bit paralyzed with the counties/cities taking control.

·         [Parson] was the front runner by a large margin so any swing towards Galloway is a positive. I still think he probably wins, because Missourah. But everything he thought he had going for him is now not headed in that same direction. And the swingy suburbs will continue to swing towards Galloway.

·         We will have to see how this story ends to really know. Things are moving too quickly right now to tell.

·         Parson hasn’t exactly killed it but he hasn’t done enough damage to propel Nicole

·         I would rather clarify this as somewhat negative for Parson rather than positive for Galloway. This is a referendum on the Parson administration, right now it’s not being handled well and Parson doesn’t have the luxury of blaming it on the president like Democratic governors do. If some of the doomsday predictions end up coming to fruition, this is a wave election for democrats across the country and in Missouri.

·         People want this to be over. Once it is they will want to forget about it. Any talk about it from either side other than "we got through it together" will just drip through partisan filters and folks will politically line back up where they were prior to COVID-19.

·         Parson is not leading. He looks like a fish out of water. This is not something you can outwork. You need a strategy and willingness to make tough decisions

·         Parson is going to win. Republicans are more worried about Wagner and suburban house seats. Galloway is toast and always has been. I think the senate's partisan makeup stays exactly the same.

·         Parson was a great steady hand at the helm after the Greitens fiasco. Unfortunately he has not be a good crisis governor. Yes many businesses would be angry at being forced to shut down, but being a leader is doing what is right, not what is popular.

·         No matter what move Parson makes, someone will criticize it. That gives Galloway an angle to attack him.

Who Won the Week

WWTW is on still on Spring Break.

eMailbag: Raising Money in the Time of Coronavirus

I have gotten a few fundraising calls. None from incumbents, only from challengers or people running for open seats. Makes me wonder who is advising them on fundraising. And makes me question their own judgement…

New Filings

Ronie Swinton filed to run in House 31 as a Republican.  This creates a primary for Rep. Dan Stacy.

Mike Moehlenkamp filed to run in House 68 as a Democrat.  This creates a primary for Rep. Jay Mosley.

Lisa Rees filed to run in House 103 as a Democrat.  She’ll face Republican Speaker Pro Tem John Wiemann.

Yvonne Reeves-Chong filed to run in House 122.  She’ll face Republican Bill Hardwick.  Republican Rep. Steve Lynch is term limited.

$5K+ Contributions

New Approach PAC - $130,000 from New Approach PAC.

Citizens For Mitchell - $10,100 from Macy Mitchell.

Missourians for a New Approach - $14,442 from New Approach PAC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from UAW V CAP.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Joe Fallert, Scott Lipke, and Marty Oetting.

Sunday: Will Scharf, Nathan Beard, Zachary Brunnert, Ellen Brandom, and Neal St. Onge.