MOScout Daily Update: More Testing Before Re-Opening - Galloway's HUGE Quarter - Quade: No Non-COVID Legislation - Kidd Extortion Attempt? - Do You Miss Doubletree Cookies? and more...

The Road Forward

Governor Mike Parson indicates that he wants much more testing underway before lifting the current restrictions. We are actually looking to DOUBLE our testing capacity. When we reach 40,000-50,000 tests *per WEEK* that will give us the data and confidence to fully reopen Missouri…

Galloway Trounces Parson’s Fundraising Number

Yesterday I wrote that Governor Mike Parson’s $300K+ fundraising number was strong given the lockdown and all.  But Auditor Nicole Galloway blew that out of the water, more than doubling his number.  She raised $640,281 in the last three months.

Still Parson retains a wide cash lead.  His candidate committee has $1.4 million on-hand. Plus $3.8 million in his PAC, Uniting Missouri.

Galloway has $1 million in her candidate committee and a little less than a million in her PAC, Keep Government Accountable.

Right now: Parson is still the favorite.  But Galloway’s stellar quarter brings fresh evidence of a changing dynamic in the race. The crisis is making this race one to watch now.

April Statewide Numbers

SOS (Ashcroft incumbent)

Democrat Yinka Faleti raised $67,042 – more than Jay Ashcroft’s $38,240.  It’s a good start for Faleti, but he still trails on cash on-hand.  Faleti has $103K on-hand while Ashcroft has $313,063.  The pro-Ashcroft PAC, Committee for Liberty, also has $100K on-hand.

Right now: Ashcroft is the clear favorite.  Faleti’s path to victory is to paddle out and try to catch a wave…

Treasurer (Fitzpatrick incumbent)

Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick raised $14,110 and has $257,221 on-hand.  His PAC, Missourians for a Responsible Budget, has another $135,069 on-hand.  Democrat Vicki Englund raised $23,192 and now has $27,058.  

Right now: Fitz had been seen as one of the more vulnerable statewide incumbents because he was appointed and lacked much name ID.  But Englund doesn’t have the resources to mount a statewide campaign, so he looks safe.

LG (Kehoe incumbent)

Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe raised $39K and has $308K on-hand.  His PAC, American Dream PAC, has $276K on-hand (after spending nearly $300K last quarter!). Democrats are still lining up for this race which is about three months away.  Gregory Upchurch has $650 on-hand.  And Alissia Canady started her campaign after the filing deadline. 

Right now: Like the other down-ballot statewide races, Dems are not in control of their destiny.  They need a wave to turn the state topsy-turvey.

AG (Schmitt incumbent)

Attorney General Eric Schmitt raised $58,621 for his candidate committee, and another $73,000 in his PAC.  Those would be ho-hum numbers for Schmitt in normal times.  But they still were larger than his Democrat competitors.  He holds a towering lead over both Democrats.

Elad Gross raised $23K and has $24K on-hand, while Rich Finneran raised $53K and has $78K on-hand.

Right now: I could see Gross winning the Dem primary.  Finneran hasn’t raised enough to effectively get his name out across the state, and Gross shoe-leathered himself non-stop to every function he could find before the crisis hit.  But Schmitt’s position is impenetrable regardless.

Senate Quarters

Senate 1 (Sifton termed)

Republican Mitchell Kohlberg filed a limited activity quarter.  He’s not expected to be the Republican nominee. Instead David Lenihan is the Republican that was recruited to try to wrestle this seat away from Dems.  Lenihan only reported $50K raised from a loan to himself.  There is talk that he may be self-funding this entire race.  We’ll see.  Democrat Rep. Doug Beck raised $32K and now has $233K on-hand.  He also has a PAC, DougPAC with $19K on-hand.

Right now: Beck has the advantage and this remains Dems to lose

Senate 3 (Romine appointed)

Republican Kent Scism is mostly self-funding this race.  He’s put in $250K of his own money.  He has two challengers: Joshua Barrett and Rep. Elaine Gannon.  Barrett raised $28K and has $27K on-hand, while Gannon raised $2K and has $4,130 on-hand. 

Right now: Gannon will have some name ID, but I think right now CL PAC is the one to watch.  Because without a large infusion of cash to either opponent, Scism is well-positioned to win this race.

Senate 5 (Nasheed termed)

This is a six-way race, but there’s really only three legitimate candidates in the race.  Steve Roberts has the most money in the bank, $95K with another $8K in a PAC.  Michelle Sherod has $39K on-hand; and Alderwoman Megan Green has $27K in the bank.  The other three will not mount serious campaigns: Bill Haas has no committee, McFarlane Duncan filed a “limited activity” report, and Jeremiah Church only raised $152.

In a recent MOScout poll, Haas ran strongly with 14%.  He’s first on the ballot and has run zillions of times in the past few decades.  But I think his early strength will fade.  Roberts led the poll with 18%, followed by Green at 16%. Sherod came in at 9%. 

Right now: With 35% undecided, it’s still way too early to call.

Senate 7 (Holsman appointed)

Rep. Greg Razer ceased his fundraising efforts when the crisis hit.  He raised $13,779 in the quarter and has $91,869 on-hand.  His opponent, former Rep. Michael Brown, didn’t raise any money, so he has $0 on-hand.

Right now: Razer is the clear favorite in this race.

Senate 9 (Curls appointed)

Ryan Myers raised $250 and has $1,253 on-hand.  Rep. Barbara Washington raised $8,952 and has $14,143 on-hand.

Right now: All the advantages line up behind Washington – political experience, name ID, greater fundraising capacity – making her the favorite.

Senate 13 (Walsh termed)

Rep. Tommie Pierson Jr raised $3,874 and has $54,152 on-hand. Angela Mosley raised $550 and has $3,069 on-hand; and Rep. Al Green raised $175, and has $11,909 on-hand.  This race has plenty to consider.  It’s said that Sen. Gina Walsh favors Pierson; Mosley is related to the Walton family which has been strong powerbrokers in the area for decades.  Green is not to be ignored.

Right now: Walsh’s support + cash advantage = Pierson being the one to beat.

Senate 15 (Koenig incumbent)

Rep. Deb Lavender outraised Sen. Andrew Koenig ($87K to $8K) and has more on-hand ($337K to $170K).  But Koenig’s PAC has $121K on-hand, and the presumption is that the Republican’s Senate campaign committee will move heaven and earth to defend their incumbent.  (Lavender’s Purple PAC reported “limited activity.”

Right now: One would expect Koenig to narrowly hang-on, but given slowly shifting demographics of the district and the messaging that Dems are putting together.  It may be better classified as toss-up.

Senate 17 (Arthur incumbent)

Sen. Lauren Arthur raised $8,507 and has $366,930 on-hand.  Her PAC, True North, also has $78K on-hand.  Her Republican opponent, Mickey Younghanz, hasn’t started a committee
Right now: Arthur doesn’t appear to be in any danger.

Senate 19 (Rowden incumbent)

Former Rep. Judy Baker put up a decent quarter considering we’re in the middle of a crisis.  But she trails incumbent Caleb Rowden and in the expensive media market of Columbia, it may be too much to overcome.

Baker raised $48,568 and has $79,801 on-hand.  Rowden raised $6,900 and has $190,398 on-hand.  Meanwhile, the pro-Rowden PAC, Missouri Forward, has $461K on-hand.

Right now: Rowden is the favorite.

Senate 23 (Eigel incumbent)

Bill Eigel raised $15K and has $159K on-hand.  His PAC, BILL PAC, also has over $400K on-hand.  That gives him a strong position from which to repel his two primary challengers. Dan O’Connell filed a limited activity report, so he’s not a threat.  Eric Wulff, rather, appears to be a serious candidate.  He started his committee after the deadline.

Right now: Eigel will hold this seat.  But if my in-box is any indication, there may be nasty accusations traded in coming months.  Buckle up.

Senate 25 (Libla termed)

Steve Cookson gave himself $50K and now has $7K on-hand; Eddy Justice raised $2,800 and has $133K on-hand; Rep. Jeff Shawan raised $15,612 and has $272K on-hand; and Jason Bean raised $93K and has $92K on-hand.

Justice’s PAC has a little under $10K on-hand; and Shawan’s PAC has $13K on-hand.

Right now: The entry of Bean – with a solid first quarter of fundraising – has turned this race from essentially as one-on-one race (Justice vs Shawan) with Cookson at the margin, to a four-way shoulder shrug.

Senate 27 (Wallingford termed)

The duel continues! Rep. Holly Rehder raised $12,418 and Rep. Kathy Swan raised $14,233.  That leaves Rehder with $198K on-hand to Swan’s $150K.  But Rehder also has a PAC which has $63K on-hand.

Right now: Still a toss-up.  Rehder maintains a cash lead with three months to go, and has the messaging edge as a conservative outsider.  But Swan represents the population hub of Cape Girardeau.

Senate 29 (Sater termed)

This one pits establishment versus maverick.  David Cole raised $16,750 and has $124K on-hand.  His PAC, Southwest Missouri Conservative Values PAC, has $3,500 on-hand.  Rep. Mike Moon raised $4,140 and has $39K on-hand.  His PAC, Table Rock Conservative PAC, has $94K on-hand.  It was funded by the Conservative Caucus’ CL PAC.

Right now: I think this will be a very close race.  I’d give the edge to Cole because it’s not clear that Moon will get any more financial help.  But Moon will have his army of home-school volunteers and he occupies the right (far right) side in a Republican primary.

Senate 31 (Emery termed)

Rep. Jack Bondon raised $9,375 and has $192K on-hand.  Rick Brattin raised $6,510 and has $14,411.  Like Senate 29’s Moon, Brattin has the support of CL PAC.  His PAC, Brattin Brigade, has $94,477 on-hand.  Bondon’s PAC, Western Missouri Leadership, has $36K on-hand.  The third candidate, Bill Yarberry, is unlikely to have any impact.  He raised $100.

Right now: Bondon is the favorite, but if Brattin could muster more resources this race could quickly become a toss-up.

Senate 33 (Cunningham termed)

Rep. Robert Ross raised $4,201 and has $132K on-hand.  Van Kelly hasn’t raised much since his initial $100K loan to himself.  He now has $72,747 on-hand.  And Rep. Karla Eslinger has $154K on-hand after loaning herself $150K.  Ross’ Team Robert PAC has another $47K on-hand.

Right now: Ross is the favorite right now, but Eslinger shouldn’t be counted out.  She will likely rally educators to her campaign.

Top 25 COH

Uniting Missouri PAC - $3.8 million.

Carpenters Help in the Political Process (CHIPP) - $1.8 million.

MO Opportunity PAC - $1.6 million

Parson For Missouri - $1.4 million.

Health Care Issues Committee of the Missouri Hospital Association - $1.2 million.

Eastern Missouri Laborers Educational & Benevolent Fund - $1.2 million

Nicole Galloway For Missouri - $1 million.

Keep Government Accountable - $939,573.

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $894,849.

Citizens For Jake Zimmerman - $707,732.

Lyda Krewson for Mayor - $684,405.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $664,304.

Schmitt For Missouri  Full Disclosure            58621  61095.85         629404.06       0

MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $598,646.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $589,892. 

Missouri Realtors PAC Inc - $577,938.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $574,480.

Friends Of Gregory FX Daly  - $573,462.

Change STL PAC - $504,550.

Callahan For Missouri - $486,700.

Friends Of Eric Burlison - $443,866.

Leadership For America - $442,450.

Greitens For Missouri - $437,936.

Missourians for Healthcare - $414,735.

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC - $408,216.

GOP Leaders Issue Statement

House and Senate Republican leaders issued a statement about reconvening…“During this unprecedented time, our legislative body has worked to balance the health and safety of members, staff, and visitors with our constitutional obligation to pass a budget. The decision to move forward on April 27 was not an easy one, however it is absolutely critical for the people of Missouri that we keep the state government funded and services operating without interruption… The General Assembly will continue to adhere to social distancing and infection mitigation procedures when members return. Committee hearings and legislative proceedings will remain open to the public and their testimony. We strongly encourage members of the public to follow social distancing guidelines and participate in the legislative process electronically when possible.”

But

Minority Leader Crystal Quade drew a line in the sand about any proposed agenda: “If the legislative session is to resume then it must be limited to enacting the state budget and passing laws necessary to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and rebuild Missouri’s economy. As Governor Parson said yesterday, those are the only priorities that matter. Under no circumstances should the safety of the public, legislative staff and lawmakers be jeopardized to advance a partisan political agenda or grant special interest favors.”

Extortion Effort Against Kidd!?!

From Facebook… Bill Kidd for Missouri Rep District 20

April 9 at 3:41 PM ·

I have received an extortion demand threatening to send emails and post on Facebook videos of me watching porn. They claim to have hacked my computer video camera and will post videos unless I pay them $1,900 via Bitcoin. I have contacted the Missouri State Highway Patrol Cyber Crimes Division and the Federal Department of Homeland Security fraud investigator. This is not the first time I have received threats but this one had a portion of an old password in their email. They might have purchased the password off of the dark web and were just phishing. I am posting this notice to let everyone know their allegations against me are false and their attempts to blackmail me will not work. I will prosecute. This in no joke, this is real, and I'm not a happy camper.

And

KY3 reports that Camden County is under cyberattack.  See it here.  The Camden County government computer network is a victim of a "sophisticated encryption attack," which is currently disrupting operations.

Bits

·         Yahoo reports… The city of Joplin, near Missouri’s borders with Oklahoma and Kansas, is seeking to tempt the electric-car maker with $1 billion in incentives and savings to build a new factory for its futuristic Cybertruck.  Joplin is offering Tesla a 1,042 acre site at a 50% discount, according to a website it’s built to court the company led by billionaire Elon Musk. It’s also coaxing the carmaker with a 100% tax abatement for 12 years and various other tax breaks and incentives.  The city, which is home to a pair of industrial-battery production facilities, has taken its campaign directly to Musk, with Joplin Area Chamber of Commerce President Toby Teeter appealing to the chief executive officer Monday on Twitter. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment on Joplin’s proposal.

·         St. Louis Business Journal reports that “Catherine Hanaway, the former U.S. attorney in St. Louis, has been named the next chairperson of Husch Blackwell, starting April 2021. She will be the first woman to lead the law firm. Hanaway will succeed Greg Smith, whose term ends March 31, 2021…”

·         Doubletree hotels have put their cookie recipe online.  Find it here.  You start with a half-pound of butter…

Lobbyists Registrations

Henrio Thelemaque added FedEx Corporation.

$5K+Contributions

Page PAC - $35,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

Cerner PAC MO – Federal Committee - $25,000 from Cerner PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Matt Dameron, and Shane Cohn.