MOScout Daily Update: The Itch to Re-Open - Big Parson Quarter - Budget Back on ToDo List - Lavender Outraises Koenig - and more...

Legislature Will Tackle Budget

After the initial talk was that the legislature would forgo working on the budget when they reconvene later this month, it now sounds like they will tackle it.

Senate Minority Leader John Rizzo denounced the notion of prioritizing non-budget items.  See it here.

And some conservatives pointed to the constitution.  For example, one MOScouter decried the abdication: “The legislature may not have a financial penalty for failing to meet the constitutional deadline for passing the budget, but they will have hell to pay if they don’t. If they are indisputably willing to ignore the constitution in this extremely basic area, what else are they willing to ignore?”

Things are obviously fluid.

·         One would expect an FY 2021 budget to have a lot of “E”s where the legislature gives the executive branch flexibility considering the great unknowns.

·         There’s a wide array of GDP forecasts, showing no one really knows how bad the economic decline will be.  But none of them are good.

·         The daily revenues numbers are not terrible yet. As of close of business April 13, sales tax revenues were still positive for the month, and individual income tax receipts were down 24%.  I’d expect both numbers to show much greater deterioration in the coming weeks.

More Mini-Session Talk

Prediction: The Senator who repeatedly calls the quorum will quickly become persona non grata. Leadership could make a lot of headway if they just announce they will PQ any question when a Senator who is filibustering calls a quorum. Filibuster all you want, just don’t risk your colleagues health to do so.

And

·         You missed Clean Missouri on the priority list. Got to do that in the midst of a pandemic!

·         Perhaps sensing that CLEANer was again on the table, $400K was sent to the original CLEAN committee (see it in the large contributions below).

The Re-Opening Itch

With the economic pinch becoming more painful and widespread there’s a growing itch to “re-open” despite the health consequences.

·         Wall Street Journal reports that a “second wave of layoffs” is now rippling through the economy.  See it here.  The first people to lose their jobs worked at restaurants, malls, hotels and other places that closed to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Higher skilled work, which often didn’t require personal contact, seemed more secure.  That’s not how it’s turning out. A second wave of job loss is hitting those who thought they were safe. Businesses that set up employees to work from home are laying them off as sales plummet. Corporate lawyers are seeing jobs dry up. Government workers are being furloughed as state and city budgets are squeezed. And health-care workers not involved in fighting the pandemic are suffering. The longer shutdowns continue, the bigger this second wave could become, risking a repeat of the deep and prolonged labor downturn that accompanied the 2007-09 recession.

Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin gives voice to this angst.  On Facebook she writes:

Things I never want to see or hear again:

1) Press conferences where government officials stand there and tell us about how great government officials are doing their jobs shutting down the economy and killing our economic futures. How we can look to them for all the answers. Most of them have never actually run a business and have no idea the devastation they are foisting on us. Nor do they care.

2) Sanctimonious television stars sitting in their living rooms perfectly dressed and made up telling us how we're "in this together" We are most assuredly not in "this together" We in the real world are in this alone while you sit on your hind end in front of a tv camera reminding us how much you "care"…

3) Another report on hospital beds, ventilators, other numbers that have ceased to mean anything and I damn sure don't want to hear about "flattening the curve."

4) How the federal government is sending trillions out to us and how this is going to make everything alright. It is NOT making everything alright and you can't print enough money to make everything alright. Most of us understand that already. If this was actually how things could be made alright we would all get a printing press and print money instead of working.

5) I don't want to see a running total of how many people have died scrolling across the tv screen. The majority of people have been scared witless but I do see signs they are coming out of it. We don't want to see that as it is merely a way of keeping everyone so scared they go along with the current plan. Stop it.

Our way of life is being destroyed by overzealous government officials who see their role as one of implementing a total nanny state. We cannot print enough money to take the place of work and economic progress, we just can't. Shame on the government for taking away peoples' ability to live freely and independently and shame on all of us for allowing it. We are intelligent enough to understand the risks and we are sensible enough to adjust accordingly without government FORCING their version of a solution on us.

We also do not want you to define for us what is essential. OUR WAY OF LIFE IS ESSENTIAL. It is essential we live independent of your overreach and we are tired of it. We GET IT. We know how to protect ourselves as best we can.

I DO want to hear about opening our state up again and getting us back on the right track. That's what I want to hear about.

What It Means

Most of the calls for a faster “re-open” are coming from the right side of the political spectrum.  It’s possible that there could be some political backlash against Governor Mike Parson in this regard.  But – Democrats are generally even more cautious about a premature return to normalcy, so it’s hard to see them benefitting from this sentiment.

Hospitals Losing $1B/Month

News Tribune reports on hospitals facing financial distress.  [H]ospitals are also losing $32 million a day, and the state is getting involved in monitoring their liquidity challenges, the leader of the Missouri Hospital Association said Monday… Herb Kuhn, president and chief executive officer of the Missouri Hospital Association, said hospitals stopped doing elective procedures in order to protect staff and the public, and to preserve critical supplies of personal protective equipment, such as masks and gloves. "We currently estimate that Missouri hospital revenues are off by more than 50 percent," he said, adding that equals $32 million a day, and nearly $1 billion per month, at a time when hospitals are trying to maintain 24-hour operations and gearing up to face the peak of the pandemic.

Parson Poo-Poos Absentee Voting

Governor Mike Parson responds to a question from KCStar’s Jason Hancock about folks using absentee balloting to avoid spreading the coronavirus in an upcoming election.  He seems to either have misheard the question or not really considered it before he answered.  See it here.

My question for @GovParsonMO at today's briefing was if he believes #COVID19 pandemic, or abiding by a stay-at-home order, is a valid excuse for Missourians to request/cast an absentee ballot?

The answer from local authorities has differed by county.

This was his answer #moleg

“I do not. The absentee ballot is more of a political issue than it is anything.  This is a Democrat-Republican issue and that’s where all of this is headed, is to a political answer and what’s driving behind this force.”

Early Quarters

The April quarter deadline is 5PM tonight.  I’ll have a full rundown tomorrow.  Here are some earlier filers…

Parson For Missouri raised $334,634.  That’s a big number in this environment.  It now has $1.4 million on-hand.

Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe raised $39,517; spent $100,787; and has $308,330 on-hand.

In Senate 15 Rep. Deb Lavender once again out-raised Sen. Andrew Koenig.  Lavender For State Senate raised a very healthy $86,774; spent $23,852 and has $337,365 on-hand.  While Friends Of Andrew Koenig raised $8,275; spent $8,999; and has $169,810 on-hand.

In Senate 33, KarlaEslingerForSenate.com raised $4,380 and has $154,723 (from $150K loan from herself).

In Senate 25, Jason Bean’s first quarter was strong.  jasonbeanforsenate.com raised $92,909 (that included $27K from himself) and finished with $91,957 on-hand.

The pro-Galloway PAC Keep Government Accountable raised $230,550 and has $939,573.

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC raised $3,700 and has $408,216 on-hand.

CL PAC didn’t raise any money, and now has $297,452 on-hand.

McDowell Will Run a Grassroots Campaign

Saundra McDowell, candidate for governor on her website (see it here) declares, “This campaign requires patriots, not politicians. And for that reason, Saundra has pledged not to hire any consultants, and decline every single call from special interest groups, and lobbyists.  But that doesn't mean she doesn't need advice or counsel because she'll be looking to get that from YOU! She is relying on everyday Missourians to be her campaign consultants, chief advisors, and strategists, so sign-up, get involved and help shape this campaign.”

New Committees

Jeff Francis formed a candidate committee (Jeff Francis for Missouri) to run for House 22 as a Democrat.

$5K+Contributions

CLEAN Missouri - $400,000 from Action Now Initiative.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $500,000 from Republican Governors Association Missouri 2020.

UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) - $6,000 from UAW Region 5 Exchange Account.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $24,050 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

KCFOP PAC - $6,100 from Kansas City Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 99.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to David Wood, Ira Anders, Scott Muschany, and Leonard Hughes.