MOScout Weekender: Wolff on Absentee Voting - NYT on KC Debate - Senate 29 Poll - Hallway on Gov's Race - WWTW and more...
Wolff Argues for Absentee Voting During COVID Times
Former Supreme Court Justice Mike Wolff outlined the legal case for allowing absentee voting during the coronavirus crisis in a memo. The mighty Jason Rosenbaum put a copy of the memo – which was signed by many other lawyers – online here.
According to law voters may vote absentee for reason of “confinement due to illness.” Wolff notes that this phrase is not defined anywhere in law.
Wolff writes, “By the plain meaning of its words, the law does not require specifically that the voter himself or herself be ill, but rather that the voter’s ‘confinement’ be due to illness. This is precisely the situation today…”
NYTimes: KC Conference Call
New York Times reports on a conference call between regional leaders in Kansas City showing that there’s disagreement about how – and how fast – to lift coronavirus restrictions. See it here.
It’s joblessness versus sickness. It’s cabin fever versus the risk of a real fever. That debate is particularly contentious in the Kansas City, Mo., metropolitan area. The philosophies of various leaders collide across two states — Missouri and Kansas — as well as multiple counties and cities. Some places are set to reopen May 3. Others have picked May 15 as the earliest possible date to begin flipping the switch back on.
The different views — open up now! let’s wait! — played out with candor on Thursday morning during a conference call of elected officials and public health experts in the Kansas City region. The New York Times was invited by a participant to listen to the call, which provided a behind-the-scenes look at how these discussions are unfolding nationwide…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 29
Survey conducted April 21 through April 23, 2020. 536 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?
Approve: 88%
Disapprove: 9%
Not sure: 3%
Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Mike Moon and David Cole. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Moon: 25%
David Cole: 15%
Undecided: 60%
Q3: On March 13th, in response to the coronavirus, Governor Mike Parson declared a state of emergency in Missouri. Do you agree or disagree with this action?
Agree: 82%
Disagree: 12%
Not sure: 6%
Q4: What is your opinion of the state government’s response to the coronavirus?
They’re overreacting: 19%
They’re handling it correctly: 69%
They’re not doing enough: 6%
No opinion: 6%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?
Evangelical: 26%
Trump: 47%
Traditional: 14%
Libertarian: 2%
Something else: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Gov’s Race
The hallway still sees Governor Mike Parson winning re-election, but there’s been a shift from “heavy favorite” to “close call” from when I asked last summer. August 2019 results in parenthesis. Who will win the 2020 governor’s race? 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. Parson, heavy favorite…52% (72%)
2. Parson, close call…40% (16%)
3. Galloway, close call…8% (4%)
4. Galloway, heavy favorite…0% (0%)
5. No opinion (Wildcard outcome)…0% (8%)
Sample of Comments
· Still a heavy favorite, but less so than one month ago...
· I expect the national money coming into CD-2 to make the race closer than it otherwise would be, it's still Parson's to lose.
· It’s going to be too close for comfort, but as of right now I think he pulls it off. If this talk of a second spike comes to fruition (who knows what is true anymore) and we are back to Stay at Home orders...it becomes a very different discussion.
· The auditor could be a very good candidate, and Parson potentially not an awesome candidate. But Nicole has no help above her or below her on the ballot, and the state isn’t in play for Dem presidential money. She loses by 9.
· Even Great Depression II won't be enough for Galloway to win this race.
· Parson won't have signature economic highlights to tout from the stump and his leadership on the coronavirus response has attracted criticism from both sides - too heavy handed, not enough. Add to that the hot race in CD2 where Schupp will drive turnout of Trump-hating, moderate women voters - same for Senate 19 where Baker will do the same.
· This is a trick question - the precursor is where are we, if anywhere, with COVID the sequel on Nov Election Day.
· With Parson's adequate handling of Covid-19, the economy should be on the uptick by November.
Who Won the Week
Jefferson City bars and restaurants – Get the reopening order from Cole County just in time for the legislature’s return.
Mike Moon – Grabs some free press by leading the Reopen Parade, and starts with a small lead in his August primary.
Holly Rehder – There’s a fair amount of disagreement about what should be included in the last three weeks of session, but it seems everyone agrees that passing Rehder’s PDMP is part of the plan.
Jim Moody – For a former budget director turned lobbyist, a budget crisis is a once-in-decade moment to use his expertise, correctly foreseeing the coronavirus sending revenues into the red.
John Combest – Who does the governor’s office turn to when they don’t have time to read something, but need a one-line summary with a right-center spin? Now we know: the peerless John Combest.
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$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Capital Health Management Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Ingrid Burnett, Ann Kelley, and Lauren Gepford.
Sunday: Jeremiah Church, and Caleb Arthur.