MOScout Daily Update: Slow Recovery? - Final Week Thoughts - Hallway Talk and more...

Fear of Slow Recovery

Optimism is fading that corona-recession will be quick with a “V shaped” rebound.

·         Wall Street Journal reports that “factory furloughs across the U.S. are becoming permanent closings, a sign of the heavy damage the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns are exerting on the industrial economy… The closures suggest that a growing share of the record job losses in recent weeks won’t be temporary, said Gabriel Ehrlich, an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan…”

·         Washington Post reports that “two of President Trump’s top economic advisers projected Sunday that unemployment will climb as the coronavirus pandemic continues its sweep across the United States, with one official predicting that the unemployment rate will jump to 20 percent by next month…”

·         AP reports that not all temporary layoff will be temporary. Call it realism or pessimism, but more employers are coming to a reluctant conclusion: Many of the employees they’ve had to lay off in the face of the pandemic might not be returning to their old jobs anytime soon. Some large companies won’t have enough customers to justify it. And some small businesses won’t likely survive at all despite aid provided by the federal government.

·         And, of course, there are plenty of worries of a “second wave” of the coronavirus which could sock the economy again in the fall.

What It Means

The longer it takes the economy to rebound, the more vexing the state’s budget problems will be going forward.

·         From the Weekender: 58.3% of lobbyists surveyed are “Very concerned” about the state of the budget, believing the “impact from current crisis will extend beyond this fiscal year.” And only 12.5 think it’s “one-year turbulence.”

·         Medicaid expansion, on the ballot in November, could add yet another variable to the budget in future years.  The price-tag of adopting Obamacare remains a hot debate.

·         Additionally, there are some extra challenges in balancing the budget: the legislature must send any serious tax increases to a vote of the people; and, as some have pointed out, the “SB 509 tax cuts triggers will reset to lower amounts.”

Final Week Thoughts

The House convenes at Noon, and the Senate at 4PM today as they begin their final week of session. 

·         Conference committees will be an important component of whittling the omnibus bills down to acceptable packages.

·         It’s unclear how seriously legislators are taking the threat of Hammerschmidt challenges and whether that will weigh on conference committee deliberations.

·         Hammerschmidt challenges require someone make the challenge, i.e. to file the lawsuit.  That means it’s a greater threat in bills containing provisions that a constituency with resources opposes.

·         Listen on the Senate floor when conference motions are made.  Some senators will telegraph if there are provisions which are necessarily critical to them – either to have in or out of the bill. 

·         Time is a critical element now.  So, the promise of devouring a couple hours of time venting one’s displeasure with a bill is a substantial threat.

Hallway Talk

·         It’s no secret that Speaker Elijah Haahr had hoped to pass the provision prohibiting eminent domain from being used in the Grain Belt project.  Several folks close to him felt as those he was “betrayed” by the Senate’s action last week.  Haahr expected that the proposal would get a fair shake on the Senate floor – a start in the morning, make the opposition stand until evening kind of effort.  Instead, the Senate only took it up after the tort reform bill had exited ROAR Committee cleanly, and debate only lasted for the evening.  That said, the opposition in the Senate was wide-spread, across the ideological spectrum; it’s hard to see how doubling the amount of floor time would have ended in a different result.

·         One lobbyist tells me that folks are “making a lot of calls” trying to strip Sen. Jill Schupp’s sexual assault telehealth language off Sen. Andrew Koenig’s bill, in an effort to deprive her of a win, ahead of her congressional race.

·         The “CLEANer” proposal is in the pipeline for a House vote this week.  It already has some folks talking about whether Republicans can rally and raise money for a campaign for its passage.  The CLEAN Missouri team has recorded several big checks already to defend their plan.

Morgan to Miss Final Week

Rep. Judy Morgan writes that her husband is ill and she won’t be in Jefferson City for the final week.

On my way home from Jeff City last Friday, I got a call from my husband Gene.  He told me that he had terrible chest pains, was having trouble breathing, and was driving himself to St. Luke's Hospital.  Fortunately, I was only about thirty minutes from home and went directly to the Emergency Room.  When I got there, I was told that I couldn't see him because the hospital wasn't letting in any visitors (because of the COVID19 pandemic).

So, we had to communicate by phone/text for the next couple of hours.  At about 7:30 p.m. we talked and Gene was headed to emergency surgery.  He had an an aneurysm in an artery close to his heart, it was life-threatening, and he needed immediate surgery.

I was allowed to see him for about twenty minutes at 4:00 a.m. on Saturday morning.  The hospital staff   told me that will be the only time I can see him, again because of COVID19.  Gene made it through the surgery, but still has the breathing tube in, has suffered some seizures, and is in ICU. 

It's so hard not being able to see him, talk to him, or hold his hand.  Our daughter Courtney, son-in-law Roby, and our grandkids traveled from their home in Wentzville to be with me.    My family is a great comfort at this very stressful time and I love and appreciate them immensely…

Courtney, Roby, Alex, Olivia, and I love Gene so much - he's the best husband, dad, and grandpa.   Please keep Gene and our family in your thoughts and prayers.

New Committees

Lisa Rees formed a candidate committee (Committee to Elect Lisa Rees) to run for House 103 as a Democrat.

Lobbyists Registrations

Trey Davis added The Hire Connection LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Greg Razer, and Leslie Korte.