MOScout Weekender: Senate 33 Poll - WWTW - Hallway on Budget and more...
Budget Done, One Week Left
The legislature passed the state budget yesterday. There’s one last week for everyone to try to get anything close into the end zone. We’ll see…
Post-Dispatch reports… Missouri lawmakers completed their work on the budget Friday. They could go home and stay home amid a global pandemic, having carried out their one constitutionally mandated duty. But, the Republican-led House and Senate are set to return Monday for one more week.
“We’re set up well for a good last week,” Senate Majority Floor Leader Caleb Rowden, R-Columbia, said Friday. Rowden said many of the more “offensive” issues circulating under the Capitol dome are unlikely to move through the Legislature’s upper chamber, as members try to push through their pet projects in an election year. “The big ticket issues for the most part are probably off the table,” Rowden said. “My hope is that it’s fairly uneventful.”
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 33
When 92% of your primary voters approve of the job the president’s doing, and as many of them considered themselves “Trump Republicans” as “evangelical Republicans” and “traditional Republicans” combines, it’s pretty clear what your campaign messaging is going to be….
Survey conducted May 6 through May 7, 2020. 568 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?
Approve: 92%
Disapprove: 6%
Not sure: 2%
Q2: The candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Robert Ross, Karla Eslinger and Van Kelly. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Robert Ross: 16%
Karla Eslinger: 15%
Van Kelly: 12%
Undecided: 57%
Q3: What is your opinion of the state government’s response to the coronavirus?
They’re overreacting: 22%
They’re handling it correctly: 59%
They’re not doing enough: 10%
No opinion: 9%
Q4: Do you support or oppose an amendment to the Missouri Constitution to expand Medicaid for persons 19 to 64 years old with an income level at or below 133% of the federal poverty level, as set forth in the Affordable Care Act?
Strongly support: 13%
Somewhat support: 18%
Somewhat oppose: 22%
Strongly oppose: 22%
Not sure: 25%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?
Evangelical: 28%
Trump: 44%
Traditional: 15%
Libertarian: 4%
Something else: 9%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Who Drove the First Half?
There’s a lot of nervousness about the state budget being a problem for years to come. I asked, “What’s your outlook for the state budget?” 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. Not too concerned: one-year turbulence cushioned by federal money... 12.5%
2. Concerned: current crisis will cause budget pain… 29.2%
3. Very concerned: impact from current crisis will extend beyond this fiscal year… 58.3%
Sample of Comments
· This is going to require drastic measures going forward. Every option has to be on the table.
· SB 509 tax cuts are still coming. Plus, they’re triggered off of a 3-year rolling average. And so now the triggers will reset to lower amounts, gutting revenue further than before. This year will be bad, next year will be worse, and subsequent years will be worse yet. And the legislature refuses to lead and do anything about it. If I had a kid in high school, I’d tell them to start looking out of state.
· Two tax filing dates next year and infusion of stimulus dollars should make this a short-term issue.
· The unemployment numbers will be brutal, and the bounce back will not happen overnight.
· The use of CARES Act money to plug "holes" due to cash-flow issues demonstrates the consistent challenge with the budget and our Rainy Day Fund. We only use it for cash flow. The use of the CARES Act money in this manner is very risky for at least two reasons: 1- it is an open question if it can be used for this purpose and 2- it is based in part that tax revenues will come in on July 15. Let's be honest-most people may file by July 15 but will seek an extension of payment. Very high risk.
· Unfortunately, I think there will be a drag on the economy for some time, with retail suffering for more than a year as folks tighten up their budgets.
· Anyone who is not very concerned is not seeing this clearly.
· Much depends on whether second wave of COVID-19 presents.
· There should be concern for at least ‘21and ‘22. The real question will be how much federal money comes in on the next package and what the flexibility for states is in relation to revenue replacement. The Treasury has been relaxing the standard more and more. It’s possible that Missouri will get several billion dollars to fill a potential gap of $1-2B.
· I think the legislature was responsible overall given that we will have two tax dates in the 2021 fiscal year.
Who Won the Week?
Elaine Gannon – Het late entry to the Senate 3 race has a boost with the endorsement of the popular former Rep. Paul Fitzwater.
David Cole – This week brought another example of one of Cole’s biggest advantages in his primary: his opponents’ voting record. Rep. Mike Moon’s principled stands make for some unpopular votes like this week’s vote against exempting stimulus payments from taxation.
Elijah Haahr – After watching his Grain Belt proposal rejected by the Senate, the speaker put the tort reform bill on the calendar instead of taking revenge, showing he wasn’t going to let his personal agenda derail a caucus priority.
Republican legislators – They’ve got the supermajority and a full week to pass boatloads of legislation. COVID, SCHMOVID….
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Mark Roden for Senate.com - $30,000 from Mark Roden.
Missouri AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education - $5,123 from Missouri State AFL-CIO.
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $10,384 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
Missourians for Healthcare - $14,158 from The Fairness Project (Washington DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to John Ashcroft, Scott Penman, Gregg Keller, and Don Hicks.
Sunday: Ron Hicks and Michelle Sherod.