MOScout Weekender: Hickey Exits Sierra Club - Trump Leads Biden by 8 - RGA Sends $600K to MO and more....
Hickey Leaves Sierra Club
Long-time activist John Hickey announced on Facebook that he was splitting with the Missouri Sierra Club…
After more than ten years in leadership at the Missouri Sierra Club, I am no longer part of the chapter staff. The Chapter Chair and I disagree on the most effective way to achieve our conservation goals. That said, I continue to have deep respect for the membership, leadership and staff of the Sierra Club, and am proud of the accomplishments that we achieved over the last ten years….
RGA Sends A Fresh $600K Into MO
From the large contributions (below), the Republican Governors Association is reloading their Missouri PAC.
Republican Governors Association - Missouri 2020 - $600,000 from Republican Governors Association.
We’ll see if it makes its way to the pro-Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri, or if they spend it themselves…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide Races and Issues
Survey conducted June 10 through June 11, 2020. 1,152 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.9%.
Please note that we used general election weighting. But one of the questions – Medicaid expansion – will be on the primary election with a potentially different turnout model.
Download the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 51%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 6%
Q2: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Parson: 50%
Nicole Galloway: 41%
Undecided: 9%
Appearing on the 2020 ballot will be a handful of different ballot measures and amendments. I will read you each as it will appear on the ballot. Please indicate if you will vote yes or if you will vote no if the election were held today.
Q3: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to adopt Medicaid Expansion for persons 19 to 64 years old with an income level at or below 133% of the federal poverty level, as set forth in the Affordable Care Act. State government entities are estimated to have one-time costs of approximately $6.4 million and an unknown annual net fiscal impact by 2026 ranging from increased costs of at least $200 million to savings of $1 billion.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no?
Yes: 47%
No: 40%
Undecided: 13%
Q4: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to ban all lobbyist gifts to legislators and their employees; reduce legislative campaign contribution limits; and create citizen-led independent bipartisan commissions to draw state legislative districts based on one person, one vote, minority voter protection, compactness, competitiveness, fairness, and other criteria?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no?
Yes: 59%
No: 23%
Undecided: 18%
Q5: What is the most pressing concern for state government?
Dealing with the coronavirus: 21%
Ending police brutality: 13%
Creating more jobs: 30%
Improving healthcare: 16%
Making neighborhoods safer: 3%
Something else: 4%
Not sure: 12%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: George Floyd Impact
I asked the lobbyists in my survey group, “Thinking politically, how do you expect the George Floyd protests to impact Missouri's 2020 elections?” I got a pretty evenly divided split. 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. Helps Republicans…. 26%
2. Helps Democratic…. 37%
3. Insignificant impact / unknown impact… 37%
Sample of Comments
· African American turnout peaked when Obama was last on the ballot. I expect that this will motivate turnout from that demographic and help Democrats.
· The protests themselves probably helped Democrats in the moment. Defund the Police is now the narrative, though. In Missouri Independents and Soft Dems turn into Republicans on safety issues.
· I don’t see it having an impact in the primaries either way. For swing districts or statewide, I think the climate in November will be much different from now...we didn’t even know what COVID was 6 months ago, that’s how fast things can change.
· In 2020 it helps Dems. Longer term it could be a wake-up call to the GOP that they should be recruiting people of all backgrounds, which would make the party stronger.
· The general election is months away, there will be plenty of newsworthy stories between now and then. Can Trump use kneeling and looting as wedge issues until November?
· Defund police movement will sink Missouri Dems.
· If Dems can message correctly (big if) it helps their legislative chances. It probably hurts statewide because, Missourah.
· If nothing new happens (ie no new police brutality cases between now and the election) it will be too far from memory to play a significant role. The impact of the calls for "defunding the police" will likely play a bigger role.
· What is happening around the country with the “defund the police” movement is a gift to Republicans and puts Democrats on the defensive in states like MO in a campaign cycle in which Democrats should be charging downhill.
· Depends whether protestors can find better branding than #defundthepolice, how effectively Republicans can tie Dems to that slogan, and of course, how ridiculously Trump continues to respond.
Who Won the Week?
Mike Parson – A fresh $600K comes into Missouri from the Republican Governors Association, increasing the ample war-chest at the disposal of his allies.
Doug Galloway – Retires from CenturyLink after an amazing career. “After almost 44 years I am retiring from CenturyLink… I started with United Telephone, who became Sprint, who became EMBARQ, who became CenturyLink…”
City of Springfield – Nabs the NRA Annual Meeting originally scheduled for Nashville.
Special Interests – Word of a possible special session (or two) this year is like a bolt of electricity as everyone plots how to get their issue on the coveted agenda.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Friends of Mark Behlmann - $30,000 from Mark Behlmann.
Friends for Rusty MacLachlan - $10,000 from Coalition for Building a Better Tomorrow.
Republican Governors Association - Missouri 2020 - $600,000 from Republican Governors Association (Washington DC)
SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $60,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.
Page PAC - $20,000 from Centene Management Company.
South County Forward - $10,000 from L.I.U.N.A. Local 110 PAC Fund.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Auditor Nicole Galloway, Michelle Pleus, and Joe Smith.
Sunday: Rep. Dirk Deaton.