MOScout Daily Update: Rehder Ad - MRL Senate Endorsements - Parson Sees No COVID Surge - McDowell Questions Schweich Suicide and more...
Rehder’s First Ad: American Dream
In Senate 27, Rep. Holly Rehder released her first TV ad. See it here.
It’s an edited down version of her announcement video, highlighting her biography.
“I didn’t want a life on welfare, I wanted the American Dream. So I worked, put myself through college, started a business…”
And, like other Republicans in primaries, Rehder is clear to signal that she supports President Donald Trump.
Tag-line: I’m running to keep the American Dream alive.
McDowell Questions Schweich Suicide
At remarks before a Hannibal crowd, Republican gubernatorial candidate Sandra McDowell questioned whether Tom Schweich committed suicide. See it here. (around 2:30 mark).
So I went to meet the auditor and at the time his name was Tom Schweich if you remember him. He was a Republican auditor he was running for governor when he quote committed suicide which I still question. But I met him….
MRL Endorsements
Missouri Right to Life made their Senate primary endorsements. Find them here. The list was a bit of head scratcher as sometimes incumbents seemed to get preference for their pro-life voting record, like in Senate 3, and other times they didn’t, like in Senate 29.
From their endorsement announcement: The Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committees are very focused in their intent to help elect the best candidates to promote protection for innocent human life here in Missouri. Every race and candidate are analyzed to make the best decision in favor of life.
Senate 3: Rep. Elaine Gannon got the sole endorsement.
Senate 19: No endorsement for Sen. Caleb Rowden. Of course, it’s not a big deal. He doesn’t have a primary opponent, and in that district maybe he doesn’t want the MRL label. Still, you’d think MRL wouldn’t snub the floor leader.
Senate 25: All four candidates were endorsed.
Senate 27: Rep. Kathy Swan got the sole endorsement. That’s a surprise as I’m unaware of any “bad” life votes that Rep. Holly Rehder has. One reader thinks it’s because “Swan has sponsored or co-sponsored 7 or 8 pro-life bills.”
Senate 29: Shockingly, it’s a dual endorsement of both Rep. Mike Moon and David Cole. You’d think Moon’s time in the House as made him a reliable pro-life ally.
Senate 31: Former Rep. Rick Brattin gets the sole endorsement, and Rep. Jack Bondon is left out in the cold.
Senate 33: Rep. Robert Ross gets the sole endorsement over Rep. Karla Eslinger and former Rep. Van Kelly.
MOScout MedEx Polling
Medicaid expansion spokesperson Jack Cardetti raises an interesting point on Twitter regarding MOScout’s recent polling. See it here.
Robo polls are more accurate at candidate races than ballot initiatives. The questions are too long to be understood over the phone when read by a computer. RTW defeat, Missouri Realtors, mmj, minimum wage, Clean all performed better at ballot than on @missouriscout robo polls.
· I think it’s a valid point. I usually use the ballot language as it’s the most neutral approach, but it’s often long and may be difficult for respondents to comprehend and lead to higher Nos.
Parson: No COVID Surge
At yesterday’s press briefing Governor Mike Parson indicated that there’s close to zero chance that he will consider imposing any new restrictions to combat the seemingly resurgent COVID. And on Facebook he was emphatic that there’s no new surge happening.
I know there have been some recent concerns about new COVID-19 cases in Missouri, so I want to want to make sure everyone is updated and accurately informed.
As we have said this many, many times – the more testing we do, the more positive cases there will be. This is NOT a “surge” or a “second wave.”
These are outbreaks in a specific area, and we are aggressively testing in these areas to box-in the virus and prevent further spreading.
We also have to remember that the vast majority of positive cases ARE NOT hospitalized.
• We are NOT overwhelmed
• We are NOT currently experiencing a second wave
• We have NO intentions of closing Missouri back down at this point in time
I spoke to one MOScouter in Joplin yesterday who’s not so sure. And DHSS numbers must give the governor at least some concern. See it here.
Significant case growth is being monitored in southwest Missouri, and special attention is being given to food processing plants that employ many essential workers from the southwest Missouri area. The state’s “box-in” strategy approach is currently being used in the area where the outbreak is impacting citizens residing primarily in McDonald, Jasper, Newton and Barry Counties….
In McDonald County, Tyson Foods has worked with state and local public health officials and arranged for comprehensive testing of all employees…
Other clusters of cases in the region are also being monitored. DHSS statewide data shows that 310 of the 413 new cases reported to the state from midday June 20-midday June 21 were those of residents of the City of Joplin and McDonald, Jasper and Newton Counties. DHSS is providing contact tracing support for the local public health agencies impacted by the case growth associated with these outbreaks…
More on IE PACs
Columbia Missourian reports on the proliferation of Independent Expenditure PACs. See it here.
“Uniting Missouri, American Dream, Missouri Forward, Freedom’s Promise — these names paint a rosy picture of groups that stand for a better Missouri. But there is more to them than idealistic names. They are political action committees, vessels for millions of dollars funneled by special interests into Missouri’s elections. What none of these names conveys is that each has a direct connection to an elected official… Missouri law bars statewide elected officials from accepting campaign checks that exceed $2,650, and the limit is lower than that for legislators. So candidates tell their wealthy donors to give to a particular PAC instead….
[Deb] Lavender said that while it might be better if she didn’t have a PAC, she is doing what she has to do to stay competitive.
‘I’m sure you’ve heard the old adage, don’t bring a knife to a gun fight. It’s the same thing here,’ Lavender said….”
eMailbag on Qualified Immunity for Police
The libertarian wing of the GOP has been calling for an end to qualified immunity for years. They have also been leaders in the fight to allow citizens to video police, they are for an end to civil asset forfeiture, no-knock raids and military weaponry. There is definitely some support in the GOP for Lovasco’s approach.
eMailbag on Roe for Trump Notion
No doubt Jeff Roe would be a consideration for running Trump's campaign. He is very client-centric--if the client wants to play hardball, he will, if the client wants to play more conventional he will do that. But I don't see him only telling the client what the client wants to hear--which is the only way to survive working for Trump for long. However the business case would be good for him--if Trump loses, he would be the guy who tried to save the sinking or already sunken ship, so not much blame for him; if Trump pulled it out his business prospects would be unmatched.
New Committees
Darlene Graham formed a candidate committee (Graham for 139 MO Dist Rep) to run for House 139 as a Democrat.
Antoin Johnson (Democrat, Governor), Mike Englert (Democrat, House 20), Vicki Riley (Republican, House 21), Dewanna Dee Marquez (Democrat, House 129), and Mark Bartley (Republican, House 159) filed exemption committees. This means they won’t raise or spend more than $500.
$5K+ Contributions
Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Rivertown Enterprises Inc.
DougPac - $10,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562 Political Education Fund.
BHA PAC - $6,000 from Hemphill and Associates.
MO Opportunity PAC - $12,350 from Jared Novelly.
Accountability Matters PAC - $10,000 from McBride & Son Management LLC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,050 from Orscheln Management Co.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
Page PAC - $10,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.
Page PAC - $50,000 from ASAPAC Missouri Federal Committee.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $5,001 from Rogers for Missouri.
Eastside Forward PAC - $10,000 from Alliance for Progress.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Kevin Austin, Shelley Kenney, Dani Moore, Jim Krieder, and Alex Curchin.