MOScout Weekender: Mask Time - Senate 3 Poll - Hallway on Senate Battlegrounds - WWTW and more...
Mask Time
With concern about a resurgence in coronavirus cases in Missouri. Masks are coming to an urban area near you….
From KCStar: Kansas City will require the use of masks or face coverings in public settings starting Monday, Mayor Quinton Lucas announced at a news conference Friday.The move is an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19 as the area sees its highest number of daily case increases since the first cases of the virus were detected in March.
On Twitter: Columbia Mayor Brian Treece: Today I asked the City Manager to have an ordinance drafted to require masks in all public settings. With rising cases of coronavirus, this is a responsible & simple public health initiative to curb the spread of COVID-19, protect public health and keep our economy open.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 3
Survey conducted June 24 through June 25, 2020. 500 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Disclosure: Scism is an Axiom client. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?
Approve: 84%
Disapprove: 12%
Not sure: 4%
Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Kent Scism, Joshua Barrett and Elaine Freeman Gannon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Kent Scism: 19%
Joshua Barrett: 24%
Elaine Freeman Gannon: 23%
Undecided: 34%
Q3: In general, how do you feel about reopening the economy?
We should be reopening faster: 40%
We are going at about the right speed: 37%
We are reopening too fast: 17%
Not sure: 6%
Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?
Dealing with the coronavirus: 19%
Ending police brutality: 8%
Creating more jobs: 23%
Improving healthcare: 7%
Making neighborhoods safer: 11%
Something else: 12%
Not sure: 20%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?
Evangelical: 20%
Trump: 43%
Traditional: 18%
Libertarian: 4%
Something else: 15%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate District Battleground
I asked the inside-the-building crowd “Which state senate district is most likely to flip?”
It’s the same question last August and also in January 2019. The answer has shifted. The clear consensus now is that Senate 15 is the fiercest battleground.
RESULTS Now August ‘19 January ‘19
1. Senate 1 Sifton (termed)… 23.3% 44.8% (29.6%)
2. Senate 3 Romine (termed)… N/A 0% (0%)
3. Senate 15 Koenig… 73.3% 48.3% (25.9%)
4. Senate 17 Arthur… 0% 0% (14.8%)
5. Senate 19 Rowden… 3.3% 6.9% (29.6%)
Sample of Comments
· Andrew is a good guy. But the environment and Lavender are against him.
· Tough district - tough year [Senate 15]
· Most to least likely in this order: 15, 19, 1, 17. Koenig is the only one that I think might flip.
· Easy to forget how close [Senate 1] was 8 yrs ago and Linehan is much more moderate than Lembke. Sifton was also an incredible candidate and worker, so hard to compare and Linehan can self-fund.
· Would have said Sifton's district if the R was a stronger candidate, think Deb will give Koenig a run for his money.
· Carrying the anti-abortion bill, being on the same ballot as Trump in a suburban district, running against a female candidate with name ID...
· That congressional race is going to be one of the hot races this year. Koenig and Deb will have very little control over the eventual outcome.
· If antifa keeps tearing down statues of President Grant, it won't help Doug Beck.
· Deciding between Senate 15 and 19 was a tough one. Rowden had the closest vote margin in the last election but faced a powerful opponent. Baker did not perform well in her previous election and only beat Eric Schmitt by a point-and-a-half in Boone County. Unless Baker shows better fundraising numbers, Rowden should pull it out. In the last election, Koenig won by a substantial margin, but his opponent spent next to nothing. Lavender already has a war chest and will likely benefit from Schupp's ground game. That said, she will have to overcome a liberal voting record to edge out Koenig in traditionally pro-life district.
Who Won the Week?
Nicole Galloway – It’s still a time fraught with political challenges for the governor. The wildcards of the November election were heightened this week with new COVID hotpots emerging, a testy answer to a reporter’s question, and data that the economy might not snap right back. The risks are all with the incumbent right now.
Robert Ross – His allied PAC received a big check, and he received Missouri Right to Life’s sole endorsement in his three-way Republican primary.
Eddy Justice – First TV ad is “hardcore.” It’s memorable and buzz-worthy.
James Harris – The “MRL Whisperer?” His clients did very well with Missouri Right to Life. Rep. Elaine Gannon got the sole endorsement in Senate 3; Rep. Kathy Swan got the sole endorsement in Senate 27; and former Rep. Rick Brattin gets the sole endorsement in Senate 31.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Laborers Union Local #42 Voluntary Political Fund - $17,000 from Laborers' Local No. 42.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Grow Missouri.
True North PAC - $10,000 from Alliance for Progress LLC.
Six County PAC - $10,000 from L.I.U.N.A. Local 110 PAC Fund.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri.
Missourians for Healthcare - $12,953 from Missouri Hospital Association.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $5,001 from McEagle-O-Fallon LC.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $5,001 from M Property Services LLC.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $5,001 from Northside Regeneration LLC.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $7,500 from Riley Services Inc.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $7,500 from Mississippi Cape LLC.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $7,500 from John Edmonds.
Citizens for a Better District 1 - $7,500 from Red Letter Communications.
Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $25,000 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc.
UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $7,500 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club.
Page PAC - $10,000 from Tom Carnahan.
Page PAC - $75,000 from L.I.U.N.A. Local 110 PAC Fund.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to May Scheve Reardon, Ross Branson, and Bob Hilgemann.
Sunday: Nancy Rice.