MOScout Weekender: Special Session Talk - Mims Fined - YAL for Moon - Senate 25 Poll - Hallway on MedEx and more....

More Special Session Talk

One lobbyist tells me that the special session focused on crime will include St Louis police residency, witness protection and “the AG take over thing.”

Mims Fined

Former Rep. Bonnaye Mims was fined $20,807 by the Missouri Ethics Commission for a few episodes of using campaign funds for personal use, as well as thousands of dollars of cash withdrawals over the allowable limit.  See it here.

YAL Adds $$$

Young Americans for Liberty put $275,000 into their Missouri PAC, Make Liberty Win.  And I’m told that in addition to some House races, YAL will be working for Mike Moon in Senate 29.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Coronavirus Hasn’t Changed Much - Yet

Survey conducted July 8 through July 9, 2020. 436 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Justice is an RRG client.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President of the United States?

Approve: 85%

Disapprove: 11%

Not sure: 4%

Q2: Candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jeff Shawan, Jason Bean, Eddy Justice, and Stephen Carroll Cookson. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Shawan: 17%

Jason Bean: 26%

Eddy Justice: 23%

Stephen Carroll Cookson: 11%

Undecided: 23%

Q3: In general, how do you feel about reopening the economy?

We should be reopening faster: 42%

We are going at about the right speed: 31%

We are reopening too fast: 18%

Not sure: 9%

Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?

Dealing with the coronavirus: 25%

Ending police brutality: 12%

Creating more jobs: 18%

Improving healthcare: 8%

Making neighborhoods safer: 7%

Something else: 8%

Not sure: 22%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?

Evangelical: 22%

Trump: 48%

Traditional: 18%

Libertarian: 1%

Something else: 11%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: MedEx

I asked lobbyists if they think that Medicaid expansion pass in August?  They do. 31 responses

1. Yes, pass by wide margin… 32.2%

2. Yes, pass by narrow margin… 54.8%

3. No, fail by narrow margin… 12.9%

4. No, fail by wide margin… 0%

Sample of Comments

·         Even if Travis Brown convinces Rex to spend a stupid amount of money on it, it’s too late and there is zero evidence that they can run an effective campaign.

·         I think the pandemic will illuminate how normal hard working people can lose a job and be left without insurance. That may be the difference in this measure's fate.

·         Gonna be close. But all the polling and messaging I’ve seen shows a victory in August. And then the state will elect officials who either won’t implement it, or will keep making it hard to access, like the last 15 years. Go figure.

·         Democrats have stopped trying in Jeff City and have shifted to the ballot, which has been effective. Legislators cry foul over this shift yet drag their feet on implanting policies that have broad support (medical marijuana).

·         After overturning RTW, moving Medicaid expansion, passing minimum wage and clean MO, the framework is in place. Look for voting polices (AVR, mail) to be next in line.

·         Depends on the opposition but any organization at all it goes down.

·         If it can pass in bright red Oklahoma, it will pass in Missouri. Especially when you consider the very diverse coalition here. Anytime you can get the Missouri Chamber of Commerce, AFL-CIO, Missouri Catholic Conference/Bishops and AARP all in support of the same thing, chances of success are pretty good. It also helps being moved to August, where there will be massive turnout for the St. Louis County Executive Democrat primary.

·         I think it will go by a hair. This all depends on the opposition campaign though. Fortunately for the proponents Pelopodis’s record is pretty poor. Oklahoma is more red than Missouri (36 point Trump win in 16), but MO is a big feather for opponents if they can pull it off.

·         The only path to passage is zero opposition on TV.

·         The positive ads/chatter will be more prevalent and carry the day.

·         Lots of talk about opposition but little evidence with less than a month to go.

·         Depending on the definition of a wide margin- more than 3 less than 7.

Who Won the Week?

Nicole Galloway and Jill Schupp – Blow-out quarters from Missouri’s leading Democratic women, even more impressive given that it’s occurred amid a pandemic.

Elaine Gannon – Scored sole endorsement from the NRA and $100,000 from Carpenters union. Not a bad week.

Medicaid Expansion – The checks keep rolling in, as the pro-MedEx campaign rolls out their television commercials aimed at rebutting the argument that Missouri can’t afford the program.

Jeff Roe – Missouri’s top political consultant has his name floated as a possible savior for the flagging Trump re-election campaign.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

The Madison PAC - $100,000 from Chipp Political Account.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $50,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Nancy Schneider for County Council - $10,000 from Nancy Schneider.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Growth PAC.

Make Liberty Win-Federal Committee - $275,000 from Make Liberty Win.

Travis Smith for Representative.com -$10,000 from Travis Smith.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Wayne Wallingford, Rep. Keri Ingle, Claudia Sands, Mary Ellen Ponder, and Dave Lenihan.

Sunday: Jay Ashcroft, James Knowles, and Melissa Leach.