MOScout Daily Update: New Poll in Senate 33 - Rowden PAC Backs Cole - Parson Taking Eye Off the Ball? - MOScout Pick'em Contest and more...

Remington / MOScout Poll: Senate 33

Survey conducted July 27 through July 29, 2020. 503 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  Results from May 8 poll in parenthesis.  See full poll results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President of the United States?

Approve: 82%                         (92%)

Disapprove: 13%                    (6%)

Not sure: 5%                           (2%)   

Q2: The candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Robert Ross, Karla Eslinger and Van Kelly. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Robert Ross: 39%                   (16%)

Karla Eslinger: 20%                (15%)

Van Kelly: 17%                      (12%)

Undecided: 24%                     (57%)

Q3: What is your opinion of the state government’s response to the coronavirus?

They’re overreacting: 30%                             (22%)

They’re handling it correctly: 36%                 (59%)

They haven’t done enough: 19%                    (10%)

No opinion: 15%                                             (9%)

Q4: Which statement best describes your feelings about requiring face masks in public?

The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, and face masks should be required in public: 43%

The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, but face masks should not be required in public: 34%

The spread of COVID-19 is not a public health threat: 12%

Not sure: 11%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?

Evangelical: 28%

Trump: 40%

Traditional: 17%

Libertarian: 4%

Something else: 11%

Rowden PAC Backs Cole

One of yesterday’s “large contributions” that’s generating some buzz is Missouri Forward PAC sending $60,000 to Southwest Conservative Values PAC.

Missouri Forward is the PAC allied with Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden. And Southwest Values is allied with David Cole.  (See my ongoing compilation of PACs here).

Cole is running in a Republican primary against Rep. Mike Moon in Senate 29.

Reaction from some GOPers…

·         I don’t fault senators for playing in primaries, but will [Rowden] use his position to fundraise for himself while Koenig and Lenihan are left in the cold? Somewhere Judy Baker is smiling.

·         Mike Moon will put us in the national spotlight on a yearly basis if he’s there. No reason not to swing for the fences on that one.

Eye Off the Ball?

While Governor Mike Parson’s pivot to violent crime has widely been seen as a good electoral strategy, I’m beginning to wonder about the wisdom of it.  If the COVID situation deteriorates further, will voters think that Parson took his eye off the ball?

·         Missouri’s case count and positivity rate continue to rise.  This map isn’t a good look for us.

·         Post-Dispatch: Another Day, Another Record. 1,927 new cases yesterday.

·         Parson’s strategy now runs counter to the White House which is attempting to re-engage on the issue “to show that President Trump is taking the pandemic seriously.”

·         Recent Remington/MOScout polling shows a mask mandate, which Parson has shunned, is favored by Republicans.

·         Parson has among the lowest COVID approval ratings. See it here.

MOScout Pick’em Contest

Reader contest… Send me an email (dave@moscout.com) by MIDNIGHT TOMORROW (Friday) with your picks in the following races…

Senate 3: Barrett, Gannon, Scism.

Senate 5: Church, Duncan, Green, Haas, Roberts, Sherod

Senate 25: Bean, Cookson, Justice, Shawan.

Senate 29: Cole, Moon.

Senate 31: Bondon, Brattin, Yarberry

TIE BREAKER: % Voting in favor of Amendment 2 (Medicaid expansion).

Kleinsorge Perspective

Dave Schatz’ Dan Kleinsorge posts on Facebook… “I (and the entire world) has had a string of bad luck recently. I twisted my ankle 3 weeks ago but that was nothing compared to dislocating my shoulder yesterday when I fell off a ladder coming down off my roof.

I had a pretty bad time in the hospital yesterday but in my drug induced haze I realized I was more grateful than anything. I am grateful my little girl is healthy. And I am very grateful for my wife, Jamie Lynn, who took me to the hospital and made sure I was ok.

I might make a lot of dumb decisions and injure a lot of joints, but I married well.”

eMailbag on Parson’s Low Profile on MedEx

Huge props to Governor Parson’s team how they successfully maneuvered Medicaid expansion.  Really smart politics moving it to the August ballot.  It was wise of Parson to stay publicly quiet on it to protect himself for the General election.  It polls very well with Women and Independents – two very important constituencies he will need in November to hold off Galloway.  If he would have taken a hard public opposition stance and it passed, he would have looked very weak politically and played right into Galloway’s hand.  

Help Wanted

The Missouri Bar seeks Government Relations Counsel.  “The ideal candidate will have significant prior legislative or public policy experience, a thorough understanding of the legislative process, and an ability to relate respectfully to persons of all perspectives and backgrounds. Previous involvement in bar activities is helpful.”  See the ad here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Heath Clarkston, Doug Nelson, and Kurt Schaefer added Vera Institute of Justice.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Drive Fund - $320,000 from IBT Drive Committee (Washington DC).

Teamsters 245 PAF - $10,000 from DRIVE Committee (Washington DC).

Patriot PAC - $5,600 from CL PAC.

Justice for All PAC - $20,000 from Voters for Good Government.

Holly PAC - $15,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight PC.

Southwest Missouri Conservative Values PAC - $60,000 from Missouri Forward PAC.

Missouri.Senate Conservatives Fund    $55,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight PC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Sieve Contractors Inc.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Steven Trulaske Sr.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Evergy Metro Inc.

Democratic Governors Association – Missouri - $40,000 from Democratic Governors Association (non-corporate).

Page PAC - $10,000 from Iron Workers Local No. 396 Voluntary Fund.

Page PAC - $6,000 from Michael Neidorff.

Ecumenical Leadership Council of MO Political Action Committee - $9,700 from Jake Zimmerman for County Executive.

Freedom Incorporated - $27,301 from Missourians for Healthcare.

Travis Smith for Representative.com - $10,000 from Travis Smith.

Paul Berry III for St. Louis County - $12,000 from Paul Berry III for St. Louis County Executive.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Bruce Darrough.