MOScout Daily Update: Imagining the Next Senate - Cook Moves CD2 to Toss Up - Senate Passes Crime Bill and more...

The Next Senate

Folks are trying to handicap how last Tuesday’s election will impact the tenor of the Senate next year.  Complicating the analysis is the fact that there are some unknowns to many lobbyists.  

·         Angela Mosley, wife of Rep. Jay Mosley, has never served in the capitol before, and many had assumed that Rep. Tommie Pierson would prevail in that race.

·         Rep. Karla Eslinger only served one term in House.

·         And even though Rep. Mike Moon served eight years, because he was so often a hard constitutional No on many matters, a lot of lobbyists never got to know him – there wasn’t much point in lobbying him!

Here’s what folks are saying…

·         The Schatz-Rowden leadership team is safe to remain in their posts for the next two years (though Rowden has a tough re-elect coming this November in blue Boon County).

·         Education reform – long a priority for Floor Leader Caleb Rowden – looks increasingly difficult.  Reps. Eslinger and Elaine Gannon are both strong on the issue and together with Sen. Lincoln Hough, that makes three hard opponents within the Republican Caucus.

·         Many folks are already comfortable with Jason Bean.  Veterans remember his father’s time in the capitol fondly, and also he has LG Mike Kehoe vouching for his character.

·         Rick Brattin will be a loyal foot soldier for the Conservative Caucus.  He’s a good pickup for their team.

·         But folks expect that Rep. Holly Rehder will forge her own path.

·         The three new Dems – Reps. Greg Razer, Steve Roberts and Barbara Washington – are all known commodities, serious and well-liked.

And then there’s Moon…

There are two views on Rep. Mike Moon. 

·         One is that he will give the Senate fits.  He has very set and immovable views about the constitution and used to get gaveled down in the House.  In the Senate, he could eat up hours if he thinks a bill doesn’t fit the single-subject limit or is beyond the government’s scope. 

·         The other view is that Moon is genuinely a nice guy.  It takes a certain “fuck-you”ness to be a Crowell or Schaaf, and these people don’t think Moon has that in his person.  They think he may be more like an Ed Emery in dealing with his constitutional qualms: state his concerns and vote No. 

We’ll see…

For Those Keeping Score

Brattin and Moon will likely caucus with the CC, bringing their numbers up to 8 next session. (Although Koenig has a tough re-elect coming in November, see below.  If he loses they’re down to 7).

Wagner Toss-Up

The non-partisan Cook Report moved the CD-2 race to a toss-up.  This appears to be a move related to President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in suburban areas.

Cook editor Dave Wasserman notes that the district has large number of college-educated voters – another demographic that Trump is struggling with.

And

Within the Second Congressional District, Republicans are emitting a growing pessimism in their ability to hold Senate 15.  That’s where incumbent Sen. Andrew Koenig is trying to fend off Democratic Rep. Deb Lavender.

·         Lavender has been consistently and convincingly outraising Koenig.

·         Lavender yard signs seem to be popping up everywhere.

·         Republicans acknowledge that the suburbs are going to be challenging.

Senate Passes Crime Bill

The Senate passed SB 1, the governor’s anti-crime package, on Friday.  It did not go unnoticed that the vote was split entirely according to race – something which should give pause to all policy-makers.   It passed 27 – 3, with the three No votes coming from the African American members of the Senate.

The House Judiciary Committee will hear SB 1 at Noon today.  The expectation is that they will vote the bill out.  Accordingly, a Rule Administrative Committee hearing is scheduled for 2PM to hear the bill.

Hispanics Hit Hard by COVID

Kaiser Health New reports:  In Missouri, Hispanics and Latinos make up 4% of the state’s population but 14% of cases in which race or ethnicity is known. In Jasper County, where Carthage is located, they account for almost 40% of the confirmed cases but only 8.5% of the population, according to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

MedEx Implementation

Springfield News Leader has a good run down on Republican reaction to the prospect of implementing Medicaid Expansion.  See it here.

They range from resigned – Governor Mike Parson and Rep. Steve Helms – to Sen. Dan Hegeman’s non-committal “we’ll see” to the feisty Sen. Bob Onder citing a court case.

But Sen. Eric Burlison gets the closing quote:  “There are going to be a lot of attorneys looking at this to see what flexibility we have,” he said. “And from my understanding, you can’t take away the legislature’s authority to appropriate, so if the budget chairs in the House and Senate decide not to fund that line item, then at the end of the day it doesn’t happen.”

As Expected

The bulk of the recent Republican Governors Association investment into Missouri went to the pro-Mike Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri.  The large contributions (below) show $2M going into their coffers.

eMailbag on Non Partisan Voting in STL

I disagree strongly that changing from partisan to non-partisan elections for STL City offices would not In and of itself be a meaningful change.  Many of us believe it would be a VERY significant change, even if it were not accompanied by the even more impactful approval voting process.  Those two ideas are joined for the November ballot proposition, but lots of us have been advocating moving to a non-partisan process for municipal elections for lots of good reasons for several years, before the approval voting process ever came up.

New Committees

Rural Missouri Healthcare PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Henry P Elster.

Lobbyists Registrations

Kurt Schaefer added REP WR Holdings, LLC.

Scott Swain added Gamma HealthCare.

$5K+ Contributions

Uniting Missouri PAC - $2,000,000 from Republican Governors Association – Missouri.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Spirit of Missouri.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Sieve Contractors Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,000 from Patterson for Missouri.

Missourians for Healthcare - $12,396 from The Washington University.

Missourians for Healthcare - $18,906 from Missouri Hospital Association.

Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Bobby Allison.

POL PAC - $14,000 from H & R Block One.

Michelle Sherod for St. Louis - $12,000 from Michelle Sherod.

Friends Of Justice - $5,700 from Eddy Justice.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jason Grill, Gary Nodler, Cheryl Dozier, Mindy Mazur, and Jerry Hobbs.