MOScout Weekender: Parson Ahead of Galloway by 7 - Missourians Support Mask Mandate - Labor Defends CLEAN and more...
Labor Defends CLEAN
In the large contributions (below) the Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC sends $250,000 to the CLEAN Missouri campaign committee.
The CLEAN committee was the campaign vehicle for passing the original CLEAN Missouri. It amended its paperwork earlier this summer, revising its purpose to now oppose Amendment 3.
In 2018, CLEAN was funded by a wide coalition of Missouri advocacy groups. It also received national funding from Action Now in Houston TX.
The Return of State LIHTC
The draft Qualified Allocation Plan posted to the Missouri Housing Development Commission website shows MHDC is turning LIHTC 9% and 4% credits back on…
Remington/MOScout Poll: GOP Leads Ballot, MO Supports Mask Mandate
Survey conducted August 12 through August 13, 2020. 1,112 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3%. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group for Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for Missouri State Governor are Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Parson: 50%
Nicole Galloway: 43%
Undecided: 7%
Q2: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for Lieutenant Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Kehoe and the Democrat Alissia Canady. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Kehoe: 48%
Allissia Canady: 39%
Undecided: 13%
Q3: The candidates in the November 2020 General Election for Secretary of State are the Republican John Jay Ashcroft and the Democrat Yinka Faleti. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
John Jay Ashcroft: 55%
Yinka Faleti: 38%
Undecided: 7%
Q4: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: ban all lobbyist gifts to legislators and their employees; reduce legislative campaign contribution limits; and create citizen-led independent bipartisan commissions to draw state legislative districts based on one person, one vote, minority voter protection, compactness, competitiveness, fairness, and other criteria?
If the election were held today, would you vote YES or would you vote NO?
Yes: 46%
No: 19%
Undecided: 35%
Q5: Which statement best fits your feeling about requiring face masks?
The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, and face masks should be required in public: 65%
The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, but face masks should not be required in public: 25%
The spread of COVID-19 is not a public health threat: 4%
Not sure: 6%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: CLEANER to Pass?
There’s a difference between the poll (above) and the Hallway Index. A poll is a snapshot in time. It shows that voters favor the new “Cleaner” proposal. By sampling folks in the building with the Hallway Index, it’s a temperature on the “insider” sentiment, but it’s also adds a bit of “thinking in time.” It’s a collection of individuals who have probably seen more than a few campaigns before. They’re considering how things will look in three months, when the issue is that the ballot box.
All that said, it’s unusual to see such even distribution as there is in this Hallway surveys. No clear consensus here.
Will Cleaner pass? 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Very likely it will pass… 17.4%
2. Somewhat likely it will pass… 30.4%
3. Somewhat unlikely it will pass… 26.1%
4. Very unlikely it will pass… 26.1%
Sample of Comments
· This follows Right to Work. Republicans push to overturn voters but fail to fund the campaign.
· I expect a complete repeat of Medicaid expansion. The big money promised to help, but has no real plan to do. Therefore, it will fail by a relatively small margin because the other side will be well funded and well organized.
· Proponents have insufficient funding
· Same reason the first one passed is the reason this will pass… It seems like a good idea to voters
· Four words - Ban, all, lobbyists, gifts.
· I think voters are tired of the gamesmanship on issues like this. It goes down.
· All depends on the money spent for/against. Since 1910, constitutional changes submitted by the General Assembly have a 54% passage rate, compared to 38% when submitted via initiative w/ petition w/ signatures. Clean MO spent $5.8 million in 2018, and MedEx spent $11m with very little spent against. If millions are raised against it, it will have a hard time passing but will still divert funds that could have otherwise been spent on Galloway, Lavender, Baker & Beck.
Who Won the Week?
Jill Schupp – Her congressional race gets a big ratings boost with the non-partisan Cook Report moving it to the “toss-up” column.
Elijah Haahr and Rob Vescovo – The two, uniting on the topic of special session, put the brakes on, and demonstrate they’re not going to rush public policy.
CLEAN Missouri – Although the initial polling from MOScout shows the new CLEANER proposal ahead, there’s reason for optimism for the original CLEAN team. It’s under 50%, and there’s money flowing into CLEAN’s campaign.
Ryan Silvey – Still stirring the pot, even from his perch at the PSC.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
CLEAN Missouri - $250,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $141,884 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $100,000 from McBride & Son Properties LLC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Rosalie OReilly Wooten.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $5,300 from Bryan Magers.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,500 from Democratic Governors Association Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Cigna Holding Company.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Health PAC.
SEIU Local 1 Missouri Division PAC - $20,000 from SEIU Local 1.
POL PAC - $20,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction Company.
Missourians for Healthcare - $8,510 from American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Rep. Rodger Reedy.
Sunday: Minority Leader Crystal Quade, Rep. Rudy Veit, Sue Meredith, and Randy Wright.