MOScout Daily Update: Poll on Ballot Questions - High Turnout Starts - Approaching 2K COVID Deaths - Stenger "Cash Discrepancy" and more....
MOScout/Remington Poll: Ballot Questions
Survey conducted September 20 through September 21, 2020. 1,046 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to extend the two-term restriction that currently applies to the Governor and Treasurer to the Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Auditor and the Attorney General? State and local governmental entities estimate no costs or savings from this proposal.
A “yes” vote will amend the Missouri Constitution to impose a two-term restriction on all statewide elected officials, which currently only applies to the Governor and Treasurer. A “no” vote will leave the terms that statewide elected officials may serve unchanged. If passed, this measure will have no impact on taxes.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no?
Yes: 60%
No: 26%
Undecided: 14%
Q2: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Ban gifts from paid lobbyists to legislators and their employees; Reduce legislative campaign contribution limits; Change the redistricting process voters approved in 2018 by: (i) transferring responsibility for drawing state legislative districts from the Nonpartisan State Demographer to Governor-appointed bipartisan commissions; (ii) modifying and reordering the redistricting criteria.
State governmental entities expect no cost or savings. Individual local governmental entities expect significant decreased revenues of a total unknown amount.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no?
Yes: 44%
No: 30%
Undecided: 26%
What It Means
This is bad news for the CLEANER folks. Being under 50% at this point is a very difficult road. The opposition campaign (CLEAN) appears to be well funded and hasn’t unleashed the bulk of their advertising and voter contact yet.
Closing in on 2,000 MO COVID Deaths
As of yesterday (according to the state’s database) Missouri COVID deaths were at 1,864. That means we’ll be hitting 2,000 Missouri COVID deaths by Election Day no doubt.
High Turnout Election Begins
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a high turnout election. And with in-person absentee voting beginning yesterday. It’s already happening.
Post-Dispatch reports that “amid worry about the coronavirus and growing interest in the presidential race, hundreds of St. Louis area residents cast early ballots Tuesday as in-person absentee voting got underway for the Nov. 3 election across Missouri. About 700 people voted throughout the day at the St. Louis County Election Board in St. Ann, about 150 during the first two hours after the office opened at 8 a.m. That surpassed the 300 to 400 who did so on the initial absentee-voting day in the last presidential election in 2016, said Eric Fey, the county’s Democratic director of elections.”
Stenger “Cash Discrepancy”
From Twitter (see it here), the July campaign committee filing from Steve Stenger contains this yikkers of a statement… “There is a discrepancy between cash on hand and cash in the account…”
eMailbag on Senate 19
The concern (from a Republican): In 2016, Trump wins by 20 and MSCC spends $2 million to get Rowden a 2 point win. This cycle Trump is likely to win by 10-12 and Rowden likely doesn’t have that level of commitment…
eMailbag on Schroer
[Rep. Nick] Schroer's case demonstrates that just because you are an attorney, doesn't mean you understand the finer points of the law. Schroer's very public explanation of his situation, combined with the documentation the plaintiff has obtained, puts him in a tight corner; either he lives in Defiance and committed voter fraud (by voting where he does not live), or he lives in O'Fallon and committed bank fraud (by lying on his mortgage application to say the Defiance home was his primary residence). His attorney should have advised him to keep his mouth shut and resign; how he is exposed to possible criminal charges because they let this drag out in the public.
New Committees
First Capitol PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Molly Dempsey.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Effective Leadership PAC - $45,000 from Burns & McDonnell Inc.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Obrien Law Firm PC.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from SWMW Law.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Edelman and Thompson LLC.
Safer Families for Missouri - $7,500 from Edelman and Thompson LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Accountability PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $6,120 from Committee to Elect Houx.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from AT&T Missouri.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ironworkers Political Education Fund (Washington DC).
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ironworkers Political Education Fund (Washington DC).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $16,750 from Missouri Forward PAC.
MO PORK-PAC - $25,000 from Smithfield.
MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Snyder Construction Group LLC.
JCDC Truman PAC - $8,000 from Jean Peters Baker for Prosecutor.
Rural Missouri Healthcare PAC - $8,000 from Noble Health Corp.
DougPac - $7,500 from Alliance For Progress LLC.