MOScout Weekender: New Galloway Ad - LIHTC Restarts - Poll Gives Wagner Edge in CD-2 But Hallway Gives Schupp Edge - WWTW and more...

New Galloway Ad Hits Parson on Healthcare

A new ad from the Galloway campaign hits Governor Mike Parson on his response to the coronavirus as it draws a contrast on healthcare policies.  See it here.

Missouri is in the Red Zone…  Covid cases up… Hospitalizations up… Everyone worried about their health care… Yet even now, Mike Parson opposes protection for pre-existing conditions…

What It Means

Team Galloway thinks that healthcare and the governor’s response to the coronavirus are winning issues.

Recent events are helping them push these issues to the forefront of voters’ minds.

The Return of State LIHTC

Yesterday, the Missouri Housing Development Commission took its final vote to restore the low-income housing tax credit program. The day seemed to be bittersweet for affordable housing advocates: while glad to have the program back on, it has been significantly curtailed, and will operate next year at 70% of its previous level. Some major players in the industry also dislike other reforms Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick has championed to reinforce his "taxpayer watchdog" image.

Since the meeting three years ago when then-governor Greitens and his appointees froze the program, MHDC gatherings have often seen fireworks, and yesterday's meeting did not disappoint. Executive Director Kip Stetzler opened the meeting by citing budgetary concerns about the new "credit acceleration" concept Fitzpatrick has pushed as a means to increase credit pricing and maximize the program's efficiency. According to one observer, Stetzler "may have forgotten that he was addressing the former Budget Chair," whose argument carried the day as the plan unanimously adopted contained Fitzpatrick's new pilot program.

Another commissioner introduced an amendment that would have watered down a key part of the scoring rubric that Fitzpatrick and House reformers have advocated, but the substitute amendment that was ultimately adopted prevented any substantive change. Reformers contend the new rubric provides transparency and will reduce political influence in the selection process.

Will these reforms create policy stability in a space that has seen a decade of tumult? As always, we'll see...

TJP Strategies/MOScout Poll: 2nd Congressional District

Survey conducted September 23 through September 24, 2020. 817 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/- 2.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by TJP Strategies on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you think Missouri is heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 43%

Wrong track: 43%

Not sure: 14%

Q2: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 47%

Joe Biden: 50%

Undecided: 3%

Q3: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 47%

Nicole Galloway: 48%

Undecided: 5%

Q4: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for United States Congress are the Republican Ann Wagner and the Democrat Jill Schupp. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Ann Wagner: 49%

Jill Schupp: 47%

Undecided: 4%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: 2-CD

I asked the Hallway folks the same question.  While the poll gives an edge to Wagner, the Hallway gives an edge to Schupp.  We’ll see…. 28 replies…

RESULTS

1. Ann Wagner… 21.4%

2. Toss up…  32.1%

3. Jill Schupp… 46.4%

Sample of Comments

·         Schupp wins in a very close race. RBG's replacement process and potential impact to Obamacare and Roe v Wade rally folks to get out and vote-that helps Jill.

·         Despite being tied, Jill has a ground game like no other.

·         An incumbent tied is a bad spot, but not unrecoverable, we will see who can touch the voter best with the content of their message.

·         Flip a coin. Wagner gets the edge as the incumbent, but Schupp has all of the momentum.

·         I’d say Jill, but the Dems may sh** themselves with this scotus deal.

·         I thought Ann would lose. Then, people started killing cops.

·         This one is just too close to call given the likely turnout in St. Louis County as well as the incredible amount of money flowing into the race and campaigns firing on all cylinders. I give the slight edge to Schupp because of some of the focus by DGA and SD1 and SD15.

·         I think at the end of the day it depends on turn out and if people get their mail-in ballots in on time and have followed all the criteria (like getting their ballots notarized).

·         Predict it to be close but I give Ann the edge.

Who Won the Week?

Mike Kehoe - $200,000 contribution from Jeanne Sinquefield to his PAC shows the importance of personal relationships in the world of politics.

Tom Dempsey – From the demise of Pelopidas the former Senate Pro Tem founds his own lobbying firm, First Capitol Advisors.

CLEAN advocates – MOScout’s poll shows support for the redistricting plan at a tepid 44% even before the CLEAN campaign begins its onslaught.

Nicole Galloway – The governor’s COVID diagnosis limits Parson’s campaigning, and puts the administration’s handling of the coronavirus back in the spotlight.

Ann Wagner – Holds on to a thread of a lead in the latest MOScout poll.  If she can survive this cycle, redistricting is coming to potentially give her a bit easier district in 2022.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,000 from Protect Missouri Freedom.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,000 from AFSCME Special Account.

MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Jed Manocherian (New York, NY).

MO-DSV PAC - $54,500 from Missouri Health Care Association.

RQC PAC - $51,850 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $12,500 from Faleti For Missouri.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $12,500 from Faleti For Missouri.

Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $20,000 from Kum & Go.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $11,109 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

International Union of Painters & Allied Trades PAT Federal PAC - $7,500 from IUPAT Political Action Together Political Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Lauren Arthur, Justin Hill, Walt Bivins, Penny Hubbard, and Michael Reid.

Sunday: Becky Ruth, Richard Moore, Dave Sweeney, and Paul Wagner.