MOScout Weekender: Fox Breaks w Hawley - 71% MOians Will Get Vaccine - Most MOGOP Still Think Trump Won - Hallway on Session Issues - WWTW and more...

Another Hawley Defection

Missouri Independent’s Rudi Keller lands another scoop as politicos wrestle with Senator Josh Hawley’s role in perpetuating President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results… Sam Fox, another huge Republican donor, has pulled his support from Hawley.  See it here.

“Sen. Hawley engaged in an act of reckless pandering,” Fox said in the statement released through a spokesman. “He helped put the country on a path that has ended in five deaths and in disgrace for himself and for the nation. Supporting Hawley when he ran for the Senate in 2018 was my mistake. He can certainly forget about any support from me again.”

What It Means

It’s still too early to tell how all of this shakes out. But there does appear to be a major fissure erupting between the Republican Party’s donor base (corporate leaders, wealthy businesspeople) and political leaders who were willing to wink at Trump’s lies even as they endangered the county’s democratic framework.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Current Issues

Survey conducted January 6 through January 7, 2021. 980 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: When a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available, will you get vaccinated?

Yes: 71%

No: 18%

Not sure: 11%

Q2: President Donald Trump has claimed that he won re-election and that Joe Biden’s victory is only due to fraudulent voting.  Do you agree with President Trump?

Yes, Trump won: 45%

No, Trump did not win: 49%

Not sure: 6%

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2022 Election for U.S. Senate are the Republican Roy Blunt and the Democrat Scott Sifton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Roy Blunt: 52%

Scott Sifton: 34%

Undecided: 14%

Q4: The state legislature is considering legislation that would curtail the power of local governments to impose business restrictions to deal with COVID-19.  Generally speaking; would you favor legislation to curtail the power of local governments to impose business restrictions?

Yes: 26%

No: 52%

Not sure: 22%

Q5: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson's job performance as Governor?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 36%

Not sure: 13%

Q6: What is your opinion of Josh Hawley?

Favorable: 47%

Unfavorable: 41%

No opinion: 12%

Of Note

·         The poll finds little change in Republican attitudes since our Dec 5 poll. 72% of Republicans still believe that Trump actually won the election (versus 73% then), and 64% of Republicans plan to get vaccinated against COVID (versus 60% then).

·         A majority of voters disapprove of the state curtailing local government’s power to implement COVID restrictions.

·         It’s unclear if the DC riot news was digested when this poll was taken (January 6-7), but Hawley retains a normal partisan split on favorability - with Independents slightly negative on him.

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Easiest of the Toughest Lifts?

I asked members of the lobbying corps: Which of these long-standing issues is most likely to pass the legislature this year?  30 replies…

RESULTS

1. Education scholarship tax credit… 23.3%

2. Prescription drug monitoring program… 16.7%

3. Sports betting… 16.7%

4. Wayfair internet sales tax… 43.3%

Sample of Comments

·         Toss up between Wayfair and PDMP.  But since PDMP seems like a non-issue at this point, I’ll go with Wayfair.

·         Nothing is guaranteed this session, but sports betting seems least controversial.

·         If none was an option, I’d would have chosen that.

·         COVID has school choice on everyone's minds this year.

·         Seems like [Wayfair] has growing support. Be a test for the conservative caucus.

·         PDMP gets done.

·         Confidence in the public school system is at an all time low, Speaker Vescovo and Floor Leader Rowden have declared ed reform their top priorities and expect their caucuses to support that. The stars are rightly aligned this year for serious school reform.

·         School choice is a top priority for Speaker Vescovo and Floor Leader Rowden. Covid has shown the need for choice and the issue has gained support from those who were previously lukewarm. School choice is trending in the right direction.

·         The November elections created a more friendly environment in the Senate. A need to find revenue, without raising taxes, makes sports betting the ideal path. 2021 is the year to join 25 other states and pass sports betting.

·         Education reform is coming.

Who Won the Week?

Rob Vescovo – Gives a memorable speech drawing on his own childhood, at the heights of his political powers with a couple clear priorities.

Dean Plocher – What’s better than being #1?  Everyone knowing you’re going to be #1 in the not-too-distant future.

Jim Lembke – Back in the building, with a new PAC raising money.  He may be more powerful this session than he was as a senator.

Sarah Wood Martin – The lobbyist / STL City alderwoman will be unopposed in her re-election after her opponent failed to gather the required number of signatures.

David Jackson – Becomes a principal at Gamble & Schlemeier, the state’s largest lobbying firm.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

The 100 PAC - $40,000 from Richard McIntosh.

Friends of Andrew Jones (running for STL City mayor) - $10,000 from Andrew Jones.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Caleb Jones.

Sunday: Senator Roy Blunt, Trevor Fox, Carmen Schulze, Jaci Winship, and Randy Jotte.