MOScout Weekender: Don Jr for Eigel - 59% MO GOPers Think Trump Election Stolen - Hartzler Gains in Poll - Hallway on CD-7 - WWTW and more...
Don Jr for Eigel
Donald Trump Jr will be coming to Missouri on December 3 where he’ll make a series of appearances, including keynoting a Defense of Liberty event and headlining a fundraiser for Sen. Bill Eigel. Eigel is term-limited and a potential statewide candidate in 2024. He also is a key organizer of the Senate’s Conservative Caucus and has gotten involved in Republican Senate primaries in an effort to grow their influence.
· According to the Defense of Liberty webpage, the event will be at the St. Charles Convention Center, and ticket prices range from $70 to $250.
· Obviously, the Trump name is a BFD in GOP circles, and lassoing Don Jr, is a coup for Paul Curtman’s DOL organization as well as Eigel.
Big Poll, Big Takeaways
Today’s poll of Missouri Republicans offers a lot to chew on. A few key takeaways…
· Looking at the early 2024 gubernatorial match-up, Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe’s job approval numbers aren’t far off from those of Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft. It makes me think that his name ID is higher than I’ve been imagining.
· While Eric Greitens and Attorney General Eric Schmitt remain locked in the one-two position, Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler is steadily gaining in our US Senate polls. She was at 13% in August, 17% in September and now comes in at 19%.
· Will Mark McCloskey stick it out with this race? His numbers show how he hasn’t picked up any traction. His single digit showing in these polls is wilting. He went from 9% in August to 5% in September, and now just 4%.
· This poll shows why Greitens has traveled to Arizona and why the other candidates talk about “election integrity,” the phrase used to dogwhistle the Big Lie while being inoffensive to mainstream voters. 3 in 5 Missouri Republican primary voters believe that there was widespread election fraud, and that’s why Donald Trump lost the election.
MOScout / Remington Poll: Republican State of Mind
Survey conducted October 20 through October 21, 2021. 806 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full poll here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Jay Ashcroft’s job performance as Missouri’s Secretary of State?
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 17%
Not sure: 29%
Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Lieutenant Governor of Missouri?
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 15%
Not sure: 41%
Q3: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for US Senate are Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 27%
Vicky Hartzler: 19%
Billy Long: 8%
Mark McCloskey: 4%
Eric Schmitt: 25%
Undecided: 17%
Q4: Which of the following do you believe is the greatest threat to America today?
China: 24%
Election Fraud: 21%
Federal Debt: 12%
Illegal Immigration: 14%
Inflation: 5%
Terrorism: 5%
Something else: 10%
Not sure: 10%
Q5: Thinking about the 2020 general election, which statement best sums up your feelings?
There was widespread election fraud, which is why Donald Trump lost the election: 59%
There was election fraud, but Joe Biden would have won regardless: 8%
There was little to no election fraud: 20%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: CD-7
I asked lobbyists, Who's the favorite to replace Billy Long in CD-7? 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. Sam Alexander… 4.2%
2. Eric Burlison… 45.8%
3. Mike Moon… 8.3%
4. Jay Wasson… 41.7%
Sample of Comments
· Just don’t see anyone being outflank Burlison when you combine effort and right wing credentials
· [Burlison] isn’t crazy. He’s disciplined. He can raise money. He’s conservative. What else do you need?
· Mike Moon best reflects today’s GOP electorate.
· No one is more conservative [than Mike Moon and he] will have a huge grassroots following.
· Just hoping it’s Wasson. Good person who would be more focused on policy than antics.
· I think [Wasson] will have a significant money advantage.
· [Burlison because of his] Broad organizational structure
· This one is really close, but given the concentration of primary voters in Joplin and Wasson's strong ties to R. Richard and other key players I give him the edge.
Who Won the Week?
Bill Eigel – Nailing down a fundy with Donald Trump Jr is a big deal. There’ll be no shortage of folks who want to snap a selfie with Don Jr.
Vicky Hartzler – First of the US Senate candidates on the air, and steadily gaining ground in MOScout polls.
Titus Bond and Jonathan Ratliff – Listed among the “40 under 40” by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC).
Kansas City – Making a pitch to be a host city for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitzpatrick) - $7,350 from Missouri Leadership Forum.
JC Citizens for Public Safety - $10,000 from Jefferson City Chamber of Commerce Civic Progress.
Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Twin River.
Hy-Vee Employees PAC Federal Committee - Missouri - $14,250 from Hy-Vee Inc Employees PAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rebecca McClanahan, Leann Hager, Bryan Pratt, and Kenny Murdock. Sunday: Rep. Alex Riley, Chuck Hatfield, Jay Wasson, Jon Galloway, Craig Stevenson, Brian Wahby and Mark Niebling.