MOScout Daily Update: Here Comes the Senate Free-For-All... Hartzler In? Brunner In? Wagner in? - House Rejects MedEx - STL Poll and more...

Here Comes the Free-For-All

Lots of talk about the US Senate race, and all of it seemingly indicates that more candidates will be entering.  Among the rumors circulating…

·         Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler (90% chance she runs) “delivered a very rah-rah speech to 300 Republicans [at a Johnson County Lincoln Days event]… at the end she said ‘expect a major announcement from me in the next few weeks.’”  Additionally, a second source says Hartzler has told other MO congressionals she’s in!

·         John Brunner (80% chance he runs) has started a social media campaign that looks a lot like a political campaign.  The expectations are rising that Brunner will run as well.  As a self-funder he doesn’t need to take the temperature of dozens of donors.  He looks in the mirror and decides it’s Go Time.

·         Congresswoman Ann Wagner (70% chance she runs) is generating more and more chatter, with one MOScouter telling me (from a third-hand source) that “the Wagners” are in.  Inside the building, folks increasingly think she’ll run.

·         And Congressman Jason Smith (55% chance he runs) was in the capitol yesterday.  One source says he’s “definitely leaning toward” running; though another said he sounded cautious.  We’ll see.

What It Means

If my guesstimate percentages are in the right ballpark, we’re looking at a five-way Republican primary.  The conventional wisdom remains that this is good news for Eric Greitens.  He has established statewide name ID with Republicans, despite his embarrassing exit from the governor’s office three years ago.

But would his numbers really hold up over a year and half campaign?  It’s reasonable to assume they might not, particularly if the other candidates are continually pounding away at his scandals and misdeeds.

We’ll see…

Dominoes

Inside the building, two or three open congressional seats amid a redistricting year will give lots of opportunities for ambitious lawmakers to stand up and dream of DC.  See the congressional districts here.

·         Hartzler’s seat includes the districts of Sens. Sandy Crawford, Denny Hoskins, and Caleb Rowden, among others.  And maybe former states senators would look at it too, like Ed Emery or Bill Stouffer (who placed 2nd in the 2010 CD-4 primary).

·         Wagner’s district would pull in St. Louis County Republicans, but also some St. Charles Republicans as well.  One could see Sen. Andrew Koenig looking at it, as well as Sens. Bill Eigel and Bob Onder.  But would Rep. Dean Plocher would forgo his time as Speaker and make a move?  Would Rep. John Wiemann swap out his expected state senate race for larger stakes?  It could get crowded quickly.  And depending how the district is drawn, and who emerges from a primary, would a Democrat have a legit shot at the seat?

·         Smith seat would likewise probably produce its own free-for-all.  Sens. Holly Rehder and Justin Brown would be natural candidates, but maybe some former state senators would consider it too… Doug Libla? Chuck Purgason, anyone? Would Peter Kinder toss his name in the hat?  Todd Richardson?

House Rejects MedEx Funding

The full House rejected funding to expand Medicaid yesterday. 

The Democratic amendment failed 50-99.  Rep. Brenda Shields was the sole Republican to vote for the measure.  Otherwise, it was – like the Budget committee’s vote – strictly partisan with all Democrats voting in favor and all Republicans voting against.
See MOIndy’s coverage of the issue here.

What It Means

Might this turn into a tangled mess for Republicans?  After a vote of the people, Republicans are rejecting federal money which would give poor folks health insurance and bolster local hospitals.  Seems like a losing issue to me.  But there are still a few turns left in the road ahead.  Will the Senate add the money back in?  Will lawsuits send the issue to the courts? 

Meanwhile

The biggest questions is: where was the governor?  It’s a huge budget item – included in his budget.  The massive injection of federal money would clearly provide a boost to the Missouri economy – a top priority of the governor. 

With Medicaid topper Todd Richardson on personal leave, there was no direction from the second floor. Will they attempt clean-up in the Senate, or have they simply ceded leadership on budgeting to Speaker Rob Vescovo and Budget Chair Cody Smith?

Tight Mayoral Race

ShowMe Victories released a new St. Louis City poll.  See it here.

In the race to be the next mayor of the City of St. Louis, Tishaura Jones leads Cara Spencer, 42% to 37%, a week before the April 6, 2021, General Municipal Election. The five-percentage point lead for Jones is within the poll’s margin of error and matches the lead she held in an earlier SMV poll conducted in early March which had the race at 40% to 35%...

·         One-fifth of the electorate remains undecided (21%) with North City residents, blacks, females, and voters over the age of sixty-five comprising the largest percentages of this group. Among those identifying as undecided, more than half (59%) do not lean towards a candidate, while 18% lean towards voting for Spencer and 23% lean towards supporting Jones.

·         “Of the undecided voters, Tishaura Jones looks to gain the most ground. A big block of undecided voters are in North City, black, and female,” stated Braxton Payne, Democratic Consultant. “Those voting blocks already make up a large percentage of Jones’ base of support thus giving her room to grow her margin.”

Cemetery Divide

In an interesting twist yesterday, Conservative Caucus members fought for an increase in state government.  Sen. Rick Brattin offered an amendment to Sen. Mike Bernskoetter’s SB 301 for the Department of Natural Resources to take over and maintain Antioch Cemetery in Brattin’s Henry County.

Appropriations Chair Dan Hegeman pleaded with Brattin to use other means for preserving the cemetery, saying he didn’t want to get the state in the business of maintaining every historically significant locale across the state.

But Sens. Eric Burlison, Bill Eigel, and even Mike Moon (who previously tut-tutted the bill for increasing beyond its original scope) rose to offer support for Brattin’s position.

The impasse was unresolved and the bill was placed on the informal calendar.

Lobbyists Registrations

Steven Tilley, Tom Robbins, and Tracy King added Wave Taco.

Paul Mouton added Bluebird Network, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays Rep. Mark Ellebracht, and Allen Icet.