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A Weekend of Silence

One of the more interesting parts about Auditor Nicole Galloway’s announcement Friday that she wasn’t running for re-election is the silence that followed all weekend long.

There were of course tweets and statements from Dems thanking her for her public service.  But no Dems stepped up to announce their own candidacy for the statewide office.

·         This shows how a decade of legislative losses have depleted the number of possible Democratic statewide candidates. 

·         It’s a continuation of a recent trend.  Besides Galloway, 2020’s statewide slate included no candidates with any state name ID or robust fundraising base (Canady, Faleti, Englund, and Finneran).

·         Whereas the Senate seat is a big enough prize to potentially lure in a golden name from yesteryear (Nixon), the best the auditor’s race will see from Dems would be maybe a termed state senator.

·         Adding to the lack of enthusiasm, many believe it will be a tough midterm for Dems with Biden occupying the White House. (Although the contrary opinion does exist: that without Trump on the ballot, Missouri will revert to single-digit GOP lean instead of double-digit GOP landslide).

Meanwhile on the GOP Side

·         Rep. David Gregory is likely to be making a formal announcement soon.  With Lincoln Days this weekend, I’d bet it will be before or during that big Republican event. 

·         And Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick is expected to run as well, though there’s no buzz around any imminent announcement from him.

FRA Watch

·         Legislative leaders are scheduled to meet with the governor tomorrow to look for a way forward on passing the FRA tax.  One observer thinks there’s a chicken-egg problem (among other problems): the governor wants deal before calling a special; the Senate thinks they need the pressure of a special to force a deal.

·         Missouri Right to Life called for pro-life language to be attached to the FRA bill when a special session happens.  See it here. Missouri Right to Life is asking the legislature to attach language to the Federal Reimbursement Allowance (FRA) legislation that would prevent our federal tax dollars from being used to pay for abortions and abortion-causing drugs.

·         Word is that House Budget Chair Cody Smith is working to broker a deal, though it’s unclear what he can do to help bridge what is essentially a Senate impasse right now.

CD-4

With Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler’s Senate announcement coming this week, Missouri Independent did a rundown of everyone who’s been mentioned so far as a possible candidate for her seat.  See it here.  It’s a list of nine. Some of these folks are legit looking at it, but I suspect there’s are some others who don’t mind their name being floated and are low/no odds at actually putting a team together to run.

Timeline

I did a quick round of inquiries over the weekend, trying to suss out when the field will firm up, and there’s no consensus on that.

·         For example, one politico didn’t think it we’d get a serious idea until after redistricting: Hard to campaign if you’re not sure what the district lines will be… I don’t think the field will be set until filing ends. 

·         Meanwhile another thinks it’s a matter of fundraising, which might lead to a earlier declarations from folks: The only factor that should matter for anyone getting in the race is how long does it take them to raise 2M federal dollars.  

Impact Next Session

The MOIndy article lists four state senators as potential candidates.  That could lead to some additional friction in the next legislative session.  For example, it’s very possible we’ll see both Sens. Caleb Rowden and Denny Hoskin in the race ultimately.  A looming Senate primary would seem to only heighten the intraparty skirmishes between the Conservative Caucus and the Senate regulars.

Gaming the Trump Nod

As Missouri’s US Senate candidates (and possible candidates) continue to angle for the coveted Trump endorsement, one reader asks: what does a Trump endorsement actually look like for a Missouri statewide candidate? Is it a recorded video disseminated on Facebook or purposed for tv? Does he come to Missouri for rallies?

Perhaps the recent Trump endorsement in North Carolina can shed some light.  Trump made that endorsement at a rally.

·         From Washington Post: Trump’s surprise endorsement — which he said he told the congressman about 15 minutes before taking the stage at a convention center here — came minutes after his daughter-in-law Lara Trump said she was not going to be running for the seat in North Carolina.

·         From Politico: Budd has courted Trump since prior to launching his bid. He traveled to the former president's South Florida home several days before formally announcing his Senate campaign earlier this year.

·         And: both cited reports that Mark Meadows was instrumental in landing the endorsement.

Lobbyists Registrations

David Sweeney added Election Systems & Software, LLC.

Nancy Giddens and Shannon Cooper deleted Missouri Soybean Association.

Michael Gibbons and Tricia Workman deleted Missouri Gaming Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern, Trent Skaggs, and Nimrod Chapel.