MOScout Weekender: Nixon-Greitens Match Up Poll # - Hallway on MedEx Ruling - Reax to July Quarter - WWTW and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: Greitens-Nixon Match-Up
Survey conducted July 14 through July 15, 2021. 922 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Inside the poll…
· Despite a +14R weighting, Nixon starts within striking range of Greitens.
· Dems are most likely to blame drug companies (34%) and insurance (26%) for high health care costs, while Republicans blame government (26%) the most.
· GOPers and Dems split on whether athletes should take public stances on social issues. Dems (53%) favor it while GOPers (63%) oppose.
Q1: Possible candidates in the upcoming 2022 General Election for US Senate are the Republican Eric Greitens and the Democrat Jay Nixon. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 48%
Jay Nixon: 44%
Undecided: 8%
Q2: Regardless of whether you think it should be legal, do you personally believe that abortion is morally acceptable or morally wrong?
Morally acceptable: 24%
Morally wrong: 64%
Not sure: 12%
Q3: Do you believe professional athletes should take public stances on social issues?
Yes, they should: 32%
No, they shouldn’t: 48%
Not sure: 20%
Q4: Have you ever bought more or less of a product because of a stance by a corporation has taken on a social issue?
Yes, I have: 42%
No, I haven’t: 34%
Not sure: 24%
Q5: Who do you blame most for high healthcare costs?
Doctors: 3%
Drug companies: 21%
Government: 18%
Hospitals: 3%
Insurance companies: 24%
Lawyers: 6%
Not sure: 24%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: MedEx Ruling
I asked folks “How do you expect the Missouri Supreme Court to rule on Medicaid Expansion?” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Rule it constitutional… 56.5%
2. Rule it unconstitutional… 34.8%
3. Impossible to predict… 8.7%
Sample of Comments
· Lots of liberals on the court.
· Parson’s Supreme Court pick decides this against the legislature.
· I think people underestimate the Cole County Circuit Court ruling. Yes they get overturned a lot, but this is a pretty valid ruling and could set the stage for overturning other ballot initiatives.
· This will set major precedent for the future. If the court doesn’t stand by the constitution that requires the IP to be funded then anyone could file an IP that requires the state to accept the voters approval regardless of the impact to state revenue. Eliminate the state income or property tax could be the next step.
· They’ll say the people should get the service but the legislature doesn’t have to fund it.
· Toss-up but I go with [ruling it constitutional] the make-up of the current court.
Who Won the Week?
Dave Schatz – After all the session rollercoaster-hack-and-slay, pinball-blame-game, Schatz got his gas tax signed by the governor. It may be hated by no-new-tax conservatives, but it will be his legacy accomplishment.
Jay Nixon – Missouri Independent runs a piece on Nixon waiting in the wings for the US Senate race. After his decades of public service, he can decide about this last race on his own terms. Remington/MOScout poll shows a winnable race – against the right opponent.
Ann Wagner – Another powerhouse quarter from the congresswoman. Her once depleted cash on-hand is now back up to $1.4 million. If she decides to runs for US Senate, she’ll have an ample war-chest.
Mary Elizabeth Coleman – Of all the state senate Republican primaries I’m tracking, MEC raised the most last quarter. How the lines are drawn will be critical, but it never hurts to put money in the bank.
Find a downloadable version here.
Reader Reactions to July Quarter Numbers
· Sifton’s numbers are embarrassing. He spent around $100K on digital but I would bet the farm he made less than that in return based on his numbers… Compare to Kunce who spent around $60K on digital and raised nearly 3x as much as Sifton. Impressive but will he get the big Democratic donor buy-in that he will need?
· Add Dave Hinson to the list in the Schatz seat… [Hinson filed a Limited Activity report for his July quarter].
· Team Kunce is spending money to “build their list.” From Rollcall: [C]andidates who are raising lots of campaign cash aren’t waiting to spend it, early fundraising numbers show… Spending money early in a race, or having a high “burn rate,” used to be viewed as irresponsible. But campaigns now recognize that, when it comes to fundraising online, they have to spend sooner to raise even more later. “Ten years ago, before online fundraising was a big part of campaigns, people were so concerned about burn rate. But now there’s a big understanding that you have to invest in your email list early on,” said Julia Ager, president of Sapphire Strategies, who served as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s chief digital officer in 2018.
And this bit from a reader….
Just spent 18 minutes on the phone with US Senate poll that referenced Greitens "tying up a woman with duct tape." Also: would you be more or less likely to vote for "a regular guy" who citizens Washington like "a regular guy."
eMailbag on COVID 3rd Wave
I have just been so frustrated by our state. We spend $10 million on tourism marketing only to get about a billion dollars in negative press for leading the country in COVID. I feel like we are in a civic twilight zone….
$5K+ Contributions
MO Insurance Coalition PAC - $10,000 from MOSFA PAC Inc.
Page PAC - $5,001 from AGC of Missouri PAC.
Luke Boyer for Judge Committee - $20,000 from Luke Boyer.
MOTruck PAC - $6,000 from The Larson Group.
MOTruck PAC - $6,000 from The Larson Group.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Adam Schwadron, Guy Black, David Klarich, Jeffrey Earl, and Richard Callow.
Sunday: Rep. Charlie Davis, Becky Cook, Gary Otten, and Jim Gwinner.