MOScout Daily Update: Early House Line: Dems +1 - Dems Missing Auditor Candidate - Senate Redistricting Hearing Postponed - 4-CD GOPers Buy Election Lie and more...

Candidate Filing One Month Away…

Four weeks from tomorrow folks will be lined up in the Secretary of State’s office to file for 2022 statewide and state legislative offices…

As of this morning, we still don’t have state senate map (that’s in the judges’ hands now), or a congressional map (it’s working its way through the state senate).

Early House Line

I spent some time looking closer at the House map this weekend.  There’s a lot more to look at, and it’s important to see how well recruiting goes for the Republicans and Democrats, BUT… an EARLY line would have Dems picking up 1 seat with the new maps in 2022.

By my eyeballing there are 98 safe Republican districts and 38 safe Democratic districts with 27 “battleground” districts.  I’m defining this last category as ones that could flip depending on the candidate, the campaign and the environment.

Of those 27 “swing districts,” 10 lean Republican; 7 lean Democratic; and 10 are true toss-up districts.

I give each party their leans and split the toss-ups to arrive at my EARLY projection: 113 Republicans and 50 Democrats

Meanwhile, Dems Still Need An Auditor Candidate…

With the August primary about 6 months away, Democrats still have not identified their candidate for State Auditor. 

This is presumably an indication that Dems have a shallow bench, and also that the most promising candidates fear they’d be a sacrificial lamb in a state where Republicans have steamrolled Democrats lately.

If you could talk her into it, my idea for Dems would be to tap former St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson…

·         She’s an experience politician.

·         She’s actually qualified for the job; she’s a CPA, and she’s managed large organizations.

·         And her campaign committee is sitting on over $400,000.

Yeah, I know the Republican nominee will run commercials with BLM marches in the City and make her look like a “Pelosi liberal.”  But that’ll happened to whoever the Democrats put forward…

Redistricting Committee Postponed

The Senate’s Select Committee on Redistricting which will hear the bill for the congressional map has pushed back its hearing from today to Tuesday.  I’m told some members are out isolating for COVID.

Sen. Bob Onder has been mobilizing grassroots opposition to the House map on social media.

More on CD-4 Poll

The Remington/MOScout poll of the 4th Congressional District over the weekend showed results similar to those of the 7-CD poll… Republican primary voters doubt the validity of elections!

·         Asked “What is the greatest threat facing the country?” Election fraud was the #1 response with 24%, followed by China (16%).  9/11 has finally faded. Terrorism was near the bottom with 4%.  And the Tea Party is a distant memory.  Federal Debt only garnered 9% of the vote. (The national debt has increased about $20 trillion since the Tea Party movement).

·         And asked about Trump’s claims that he didn’t’ lose the election, rather he was the victim of fraudulent voting… 61% of 4-CD primary voters agreed.

What It Means

I won’t be surprised to see more folks take a page from Congressman Billy Long’s recent ad claiming that “the Democrats rigged the election.”

eMailbag on 4-CD Poll

Sara Walsh is one of just two candidates in double-digits, along with a guy who spent the last 2+ decades on TV in the biggest market in the district? That’s a HUGE win for her!

eMailbag on Hallway Index

Agree that the conservative prolife woman in a crowded field has the advantage. And between Shaul’s Planned Parenthood funding vote in special session and his sponsorship of the Pelosi congressional map, it won’t even be close.  Ditto in St Charles Co.  [Mary Elizabeth Coleman] and Nick Schroer had a very good week

eMailbag on Who Should Have Won The Week

·         The House Commission should have been a winner of the week- 1st time in 30 years.

·         Shamed Dogan--Great fundraising quarter and the perfect soundbite that is playing on every media outlet in STL.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jeffrey Morris added Penn National Gaming.

Jeff Smith added Quality Schools Coalition.

Tracy King, Brittany Robbins, Thomas Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, and Steven Tilley added STL Communications, Inc.                               

$5K+ Contributions

Legal Missouri 2022 - $8,333 from OXG LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $8,333 from OXG MIP LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $8,333 from ONXY 7 LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Travis Brown, Crystal Williams and Jim Hansen.