MOScout Daily Update: Patterson Win Floor, What It Means - Senator Schmitt - House GOP Blame Game - Dems' Rural Problem and more...
Patterson Wins Floor
Rep. Jon Patterson was elected to be the next House Floor Leader. I am told it was a very close election.
· Patterson’s speech: “He acknowledged the challenges of growing and maintaining such a large, diverse caucus, and made it clear that he would put caucus priorities ahead of his own. It was the right message and delivered skillfully.”
· And Patterson also pointed to the previous day’s losses as a call to action “Jon wrapped things up today by recognizing the actions on the floor have real consequences… saying something like we decide if we have 115 or 105 members by the votes we take.”
· The biggest knock on Rep. Mike Haffner was that he was “too rigid a personality…”
What It Means
· Yes, Rep. Doug Richey is running for speaker in 2025, but Patterson now becomes the presumptive favorite to succeed Speaker Dean Plocher.
· For the concern about Haffner’s rigidity, there’s equal concern about Patterson’s “looseness.” One House observer thinks things may seem a little messier at the start of session. “With Haffner you’d have gotten House top priorities to the Senate by Spring Break. Probably less chance of that with Patterson, BUT Patterson’s style – looseness and ability to improv – will be a great asset in the final two weeks of session when you need to finesse some jigsaw pieces.”
Leadership Team
Here’s the full House Republican leadership team…
Speaker: Dean Plocher
Speaker Pro Tem: Mike Henderson
Majority Floor Leader: Jon Patterson
Assistant Majority Floor Leader: Jamie Burger
Majority Whip: Hardy Billington
Majority Caucus Chair: Chris Dinkins
Majority Caucus Secretary: Ann Kelley
Sen. Holly Rehder on Twitter cheered the heavy contingent from Southeast Missouri: SEMO really hit some home runs today in @MOHouseGOP leadership races!
· And it makes sense. As one reader pointed out looking at the election results: Isn’t it interesting that Southeast Missouri is now redder that Southwest Missouri. All took place in my lifetime. I never thought I would see it…
Also
Speaker Dean Plocher announced to the caucus that Kenny Ross would stay on in the Speaker’s Office, serving as his chief of staff.
Next Up
Today, the Senate Republicans will caucus. Just as the Patterson-Haffner race was thisclose, so too is the Mike Bernskoetter – Cindy O’Laughlin vote count – although it’s still unclear what role Sen. Andrew Koenig will play in today’s event. We’ll see…
And
Governor Mike Parson will depart today for “his trade mission to Israel, the United Arab Emirates (the UAE), and Greece. Governor Parson will return on November 20.”
I had a full in-box today with lots of thoughts about the election. Let’s zip through…
Those Close Races May Not Be Closed
One astute MOScouter says provisional ballots could come into play in those races with tiny winning margins (House 17: 47 votes; House 34: 37 votes): “Shocked by the lack of discussion of provisional ballots… Those ballots can't be counted until Friday when the board of elections start meeting to verify the signature matches… In some of these close races, the results could change by the end of next week.”
Republican Finger-Pointing
Tuesday was hardly disastrous for House Republicans. They retained their supermajority. But the caucus isn’t used to seeing losses.
· “HRCC had a horrible night. This is the first time in a decade they have lost seats… I think it became clear to the caucus this cycle the HRCC Staff should be full-time dedicated to caucus support and retention. Jonathan Ratliff proved he could run HRCC when he was their ED but you can’t run HRCC and also be working on Senate/Congressional/other races and be effective.”
· “The overturn of Roe had a horrible impact in the KC/STL/Springfield/Columbia regions. It would likely not have been as brutal if the MOLEG had included exceptions for rape and incest but they didn’t. It cost them seats.”
· “Congressional candidates like Burlison, Alford, and Wagner, along with statewides could have and should have used their nest eggs/donor relations to impact state house races in their district/competitive regions but they didn’t. Where was Parson and where was Hawley for these races?”
· “[HRCC was] trying to win 45% Republican districts. There just wasn’t the national wave we expected.”
Dems’ Rural Problem
One reader notes that “Trudy Valentine came within a few votes of carrying Clay and Platte counties, running ahead of many of the other Dem candidates in those counties; Valentine seemed to be resonating in the 'burbs but clearly did not do so outstate…”
The lack of rural appeal is a problem for statewide competitiveness – even if their prowess in suburbs powered some legislative wins.
That’s why the Jess Piper run in House 1 was interesting. She raised good money, so she had plenty of resources to get her message to the voters.
Can Dems find a message that will overcome the damage that’s occurred to their brand rural Missouri? The answer, so far, is no. Piper lost by 50 points. One former Republican legislator: “Please tell me more about this wunderkind that knows how to carry a D message to rural MO…”
Imagining Senator Schmitt
One Republican see Eric Schmitt representing “a new generation in the U.S. Senate. When elected to the Missouri State Senate, Eric Schmitt was one of the youngest members ever elected. Now, at 47 years old, he joins the U.S. Senate representing a new generation of U.S. Senators. During the previous session, the average age of the U.S. Senate was 63 years old.”
With his Missouri colleague, Josh Hawley, seemingly nurturing presidential aspirations, will Schmitt focus on Senate politics? Will he plot a pathway in Senate leadership? He has the time ahead of him, and Missouri could use another Roy Blunt…
Call It “The Claire”
One lobbyist: Kudos to Missouri’s Claire McCaskill. She pioneered meddling in a Republican primary boosting the weakest and most extreme primary candidate in order to win the general. This worked last night in multiple senate races in PA, AZ, NH etc where Republicans had tremendous opportunities but failed because of Dem-boosted flawed candidates in the general election.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,500 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. PAC.
Jackson County Leadership PAC - $10,000 from Evergy Metro, Inc.
Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Flynn Drilling Company.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $5,300 from Menlo Smith.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Ford Groves.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Adams Automotive Group.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Frank Leta Ford.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Terry Thompson.
Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $10,000 from Evergy Metro.
1776 PAC - $6,500 from Professional Irrigation Systems.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Chris Schappe.
MOScout Schedule
It’s an off weekend for MOScout. No poll or weekend editions ahead.