MOScout Daily Update: O'Laughlin Wins Floor - What It Means For Committees - Comparing House Races to Trump - Davis Exits MEDA and more...
O’Laughlin Wins Floor
Sen. Caleb Rowden was elected to be senate pro tem next session, and Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin was elected to be floor leader.
· O’Laughlin’s win came as she was able to pull together personal friendships, the (now disbanded) Conservative Caucus, and those weary of the continuing Senate Civil War. Axiom Strategies was working the count as well.
· Rumor is that O’Laughlin is planning to hire Drew Dampf (previously Dan Hegeman’s chief of staff), but no official word of that.
· One lobbyist thinks this slight change in leadership will give the Senate a chance to reset. In theory O’Laughlin will represent the (now disbanded) Conservative Caucus in the decision-making process and lead to less divisiveness. We’ll see…
What It Means
The ascension of Rowden and O’Laughlin allow us to look again at how committee assignments might shake out. Some thoughts…
· Appropriations: This election solidifies Sen. Lincoln Hough as Chair.
· Education: Now open with O’Laughlin as floor leader. It’s possible that Sen. Andrew Koenig would hop over from Ways and Means. Another possibility would be Sen. Karla Eslinger. She would bring a very different orientation, and I think Rowden-O’Laughlin would want to keep Education in the hands of a “reformer.” Along those lines they could elevate vice-chair Rick Brattin. (Though I have Brattin headed to Veteran Affairs on my spreadsheet).
· Professional Registration: Assuming Eslinger doesn’t get Education, she probably replaces Sen. Jeanie Riddle as chair of Professional Registration.
· General Laws: One lobbyist wondered if Sen. Bill Eigel would lose his chairmanship for all his open attacks on Rowden. I expect he’ll have a committee with very few interesting bills being referred. But perhaps Sen. Mike Bernskoetter could take the wider portfolio of General Laws. In that case I would see Sen. Jason Bean taking Agriculture where Bernsy is now.
· Insurance: I think the consensus is that Sen. Sandy Crawford takes over Insurance and Banking, and Sen. Elaine Gannon replaces Crawford at Local Government.
House Dem Leadership
House Dems elected their leadership team. Interesting to see freshman Jamie Johnson jumping right into leadership. That’s one to watch!
Minority Floor Leader: Crystal Quade
Assistant Floor: Richard Brown
Minority Whip: Ashley Aune
Caucus Chair: Ingrid Burnett
Caucus Vice Chair: Emily Weber
Caucus Secretary: Gretchen Bangert
Caucus Policy Chair: Jamie Johnson
More on GOP Losses
Here’s a chart that shows many of the hotly contested legislative races, how they performed in 2020 and 2022. Republicans won all the districts that Trump won in 2020. The battleground districts were all in Biden-won districts. Redistricting brought many more districts into the competitive arena for Democrats.
· One Republican’s takeaway: “It seems quality of candidates made the difference… Given that Republican state rep candidates in the suburbs ran soooo close to Trump’s numbers, I don’t think there’s any one cause or person that can be blamed them having a bad night… the x factor was quality of the two candidates running for each spot…”
Republican Losses = A Win?
One lobbyist tells me that the Republican House losses on Tuesday might be a blessing: A Republican caucus of 111 is easier to manage vs 115+. Losing seats doesn’t look good on paper but 111 makes life easier for Plocher & Patterson.
I agree.
I wrote something similar a little over a year ago.
Plocher will take the reins of a slightly different Republican caucus in 2023. It’s expected that redistricting will net House Dems between two and five seats. And that may actually be helpful for Plocher. The truth is the House Republican’s majority has become unwieldy. As they’ve expanded their Missouri majority, the big tent of Republicanism is outstretching its fabric. There are pro-labor Republicans, Libertarians, Trump-firsters and those splintering over school choice. It’s led to a whole lot of RINO (Republican in name only) finger-pointing and arguing about who’s really conservative. A small caucus may be easier to lead.
Davis Exits MEDA
Trey Davis offers this note: After 12 years as President of the Missouri Energy Development Association, I would like to sincerely thank MEDA’s membership for the opportunity to lead such an organization.
Over the years, much has been debated and undertaken by the investor-owned utility industry and their stakeholders in the legislative and regulatory arenas. The landscape has continued to evolve and it has been a pleasure to have an active role in that evolution.
As MEDA transitions, I look forward to innovative opportunities within governmental affairs and the growth possibilities the field has to offer. I thank MEDA’s members and wish them continued success.
eMailbag
· On Bailey for AG: Why would he pass on a layup - A *proven* Trump appointed prosecutor and Marine with conservative bonafides - for an unknown staffer in his office for the serious office of Attorney General?
· On Dem win in Springfield: Gotta push back on the reader comment as to Congressman Elect-Eric Burlison. The facts are that Burlison spent ZERO dollars outside of Springfield (check the reports), donated more money than any other Congressman to HRCC and the MOGOP to assist with State Rep races (check the reports) AND dedicated his entire grassroots team to the Rep races in Springfield…
Early Christmas Shopping?
Lobbyist Cara Hoover’s daughter Burkley has written a book about football.
How much can you learn about football from a fourth grader? Well, it depends on the fourth grader. If it’s Burkley Hoover, you can learn a lot! Burkley is the daughter of a high school football coach who has also tutored some great up-and-coming pro football quarterbacks. She has picked up a lot about the game from her dad, and she shares that in her new book, Here Comes Football; A Kids’ Guide to the Game!
$5K+ Contributions
Jackson County Leadership PAC (pro-Cierpiot) - $10,000 from Matthew Lowe.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Harrison Sweazea, Dwight Scharnhorst, Tom Shively, and Terry Young.
Sunday: Melissa Panettiere, James Owen, Jessica Seitz, Steve Hoven, and J.C. Kuessner.
MOScout Schedule
I’m off for the weekend. See y’all on Monday.