MOScout Weekender: McCreery Retains Lead in Senate 24 - Hallway Sees Patterson Win - SurveyUSA Poll - Watching $$$ - WWTW and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 24
Survey conducted November 1 through November 3, 2022. 399 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the November 8th General Election for State Senate are: George J Hruza, the Republican; Tracy McCreery, the Democrat; and the Libertarian LaDonna Higgins. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
George J Hruza: 43%
Tracy McCreery: 49%
LaDonna Higgins: 1%
Undecided: 7%
Q2: Do you think the country is headed in the right direction, or going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 28%
Wrong track: 59%
Not sure: 13%
Q3: Do you think Missouri is headed in the right direction, or going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 29%
Wrong track: 55%
Not sure: 16%
Q4: Do you think St. Louis County is headed in the right direction, or going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 37%
Wrong track: 41%
Not sure: 22%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On House Leadership Race
I asked lobbyists, “Who will be the next House Floor Leader?” 19 replies…
RESULTS
1. Mike Haffner… 21.1%
2. Jon Patterson… 63.1%
3. Too close to call… 15.8%
Sample of Comments
· Depends on how election night goes
· Good night for GOP on the 8th means a Patterson win on the 9th.
· The momentum is definitely with Patterson, and I think more members are looking for someone to run the House rather than rule the House.
· Patterson had an edge before Hannah dropped out. He got all of her votes and the ‘fence sitters’ are now committing to him.
· It is very close. Wouldn't surprise me if either of them win.
24-Hour Expenditures
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee
· $60,000 – Opposing Tracy McCreery
· $15,000 – Supporting George Hruza.
Move Forward STL
· $7,000 – Supporting Mark Mantovani
Missouri Federation for Children PAC
· $750 - Supporting AJ Exner.
· $750 – Supporting James Crossley.
· $750 – Supporting John Martin.
· $750 – Supporting Eric Holmes.
· $750 – Supporting Adma Richardson.
· $750 – Supporting Robert Mahacek.
House Republican Campaign Committee
· $17,500 – Supporting AJ Exner.
· $17,500 – Opposing Betsy Fogle.
House Democratic Campaign Committee
· $13,738 – Supporting Bridget Walsh Moore.
· $19,250 – Supporting Jamie Johnson.
· $12,248 – Supporting Adrian Plank.
· $4,723 – Supporting Aaron Crossley.
· $7,792 – Supporting Doug Mann.
· $6,056 – Supporting Amy Blansit.
Non-Committee Expenditures
Missouri Jobs With Justice Voter Action filed a non-committee expenditure detailing $61,772 spent mostly on staff and canvassing materials. They’ve been active around the state: Kansas City ballot questions, Springfield Dem House candidates, and St. Louis County’s Senate 24 race. See the filing here.
A3 Bits
· SurveyUSA says that Amendment 3 (pro-legalization) is in good shape with 61% of Missourians certain they’re voting Yes.
· But Politico reports that the “the fissure among weed allies has put the referendum in peril.”
And
Check out other questions from SurveyUSA here. For example, Independents say by a margin of 30 points that that they’re less likely to support a candidate who says the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. Yet those same Independents would support Trump over Biden by a margin of 11 points.
Who Won the Week?
John Payne, the campaign manager for the Amendment 3 effort, has been a workhorse raising money, tapping a seemingly endless string of huge checks. Scott Dieckhaus, the quarterback for the Anti-3 advocates, has doggedly built a coalition across the spectrum.
The question: who will win next week?
Mike Parson – The polls indicate that the governor will have two more appointments to make next year. Truly amazing. He will have made five statewide office appointments in his six years as governor!
Jessica Piper – Win, lose, or draw next week, the rural fundraising wunderkind has reminded Dems that there’s honor in taking their message to rural Missouri.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced three judicial appointments.
· Ms. Ginger Gooch, of Springfield, was appointed to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Southern District.
· The Honorable Stacey Lett, of Belton, will be appointed as Circuit Judge for the 17th Judicial Circuit.
· Mr. Travis Partney, of Imperial, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 23rd Judicial Circuit.
eMailbag: Readers Push Back on House Race Blurb
· I don’t have a dog in this fight, but whoever sent you this analysis is wrong on what happened in the last race. Curtis had the initial lead (and announced the earliest) but Dean spiked after the summer primaries (rebellion against members being primaried by YAL)… I don’t know who wins (coin flip probably) but I do know shoddy analysis. ;)
· Patterson has the overwhelming majority of first time candidates likely to win in this red wave year. I think we will know who wins Majority Leader on election night.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Federation for Children.
McCreery for Missouri - $26,000 from Tracy McCreery.
JCDC Truman PAC - $8,500 from Cleaver for Congress.
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (Pro-Coleman) - $10,000 from Missouri Forward PAC.
Citizens for Integrity and Accountability - $47,000 from Citizens for Good Government.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $150,000 from Organic Remides MO Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from New Growth Horizon LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Aaron Jeffries, Becky Willard, Brad Ketcher, and Angie Postal.
Sunday: David Humphreys, Amy Berendzen, Keith Frederick, and Joe Runions.