MOScout Daily Update: The Day Before... Keonig for Pro Tem? - MOScout Pick'em Contest - Appointment Talk - Ballwin Fined and more...
Koenig for Pro Tem?
There’s a rumor circulating that Sen. Andrew Koenig is shifting his leadership bid. Instead of running for floor leader, it’s now said that he’s considering pro tem.
If true, it’s a big deal.
· It would give Sen. Caleb Rowden opposition. My spreadsheet has Rowden winning this theoretical race with some cushion. But Koenig is an experienced deal-maker so nothing should be considered a lock.
· It would also give a significant boost to Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin’s floor leader effort. Koenig votes are expected to mostly transfer to O’Laughlin. My spreadsheet on a straight-up O’Laughlin – Mike Bernskoetter race has it split evenly 12-12, though the case for a 13-11 split could made in either direction. (My numbers do not have George Hruza winning Senate 24 and joining the caucus. That would alleviate the possible tie.)
The Senate Republican Caucus will meet Thursday.
One lobbyist thinks O’Laughlin as floor leader could potentially break the Republican Senate’s spell of bitter divisiveness. With the Conservative Caucus nominally disbanded, Sen. Bob Onder termed out, Sen. Bill Eigel possibly distracted by a gubernatorial bid, and slew of new freshmen Republicans without emotional baggage, is O’Laughlin – a former CC member – the final piece to a less discord within the Republican Caucus?
MOScout Pick’em Contest
For the primary election, we all got smoked. Nobody guessed every race correctly or even only missed one. This election is much harder. So send me your predictions – IF YOU DARE! All entries must be received by midnight to dave@moscout.com, no texts entries. All entries are anonymous, unless you win, then we all bow down to your greatness.
1. US Senate - Schmitt (R) or Valentine (D)
2. Amendment 3, Legalization – Pass or Fail
3. Amendment 4, KC Police Funding – Pass or Fail
4. Senate 24 (Schupp district) – Hruza (R) or McCreery (D)
5. House 29 (Rowland district, Independence) – Martin (R) or Crossley (D)
6. House 92 (St. Louis County) – Mahacek (R) or Burton (D)
7. House 98 (St. Louis County, Gunby district) – Higgins (R) or Lavender (D)
8. House 105 (St. Charles) – Schwadron (R) or Berne (D)
9. House 135 (Springfield) Exner (R) or Fogel (D)
10. Tie Breaker: % yes for constitutional convention.
Already Looking Around the Corner
With polls forecasting Republican wins for US Senate and Auditor, the conventional wisdom is that Governor Mike Parson is unlikely to follow his usual path of appointing elected officials. The top guesses right now are his general counsel Andrew Bailey for attorney general, and former CD-4 candidate Kalena Bruce for treasurer. They’d both have to run for re-election in 2024, so they’d have two years to sew up support, fundraises and head off potential primaries. But the Republican supermajorities mean that there’ll be no shortage of pols eying higher office.
· One observer looking at AG 2024: “I think Tim Garrison, Tony Luetkemeyer, and Will Sharf all plan to run no matter what.”
City of Baldwin Fined
Missouri Ethic Commission fined the City of Ballwin $100 for failing to put a “paid for” on a mailer about a use tax ballot question. See the consent order here.
e-Mailbag
I’m going to respectfully disagree that Dieckhaus won the weak as the anti-legalization leader. Eapen Thampy is the one leading the anti-legal cause uniting republicans and democrats and others. He’s been in the trenches for more than a decade now on this issue despite which consultant starts a PAC now. Eapen knows all the players and has spearheaded a grassroots charge in opposition hoping they legislature will take action if it fails. He’s lobbied for this issue for years and if it fails he deserves the credit.
$5K+ Contributions
North County Solidarity PAC LLC - $15,000 from Page PAC.
Professional Firefighters & Paramedics of Franklin County PAC Fund - $10,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.
Quad County Emergency Services PAC - $24,650 from St Charles County Paramedic Assoc.
Quad County Emergency Services PAC - $12,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.
Citizens for Good Government - $20,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.
Citizens for Good Government - $7,000 from Professional Firefighters of Tri-County PAC.
Citizens for Good Government - $12,000 from Professional Firefighters & Paramedics of Franklin County PAC.
Citizens for Good Government - $10,000 from Quad County Emergency Services PAC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from A Joint Operation LLC.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $135,000 from MO MMD Investment Company LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Blaine for Congress.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Congressman Sam Graves, Jarad Falk, David Sater, and Doug Ervin.