MOScout Daily Update: What To Watch For Tonight - Late HRCC IEs - Andrews Gets Appt - Dirty Tactics in House 98 and more...

What To Watch For

Here’s what I’ll be watching for tonight…

·       US Senate and Auditor – Polls says that Republicans will take both these statewide offices.  I assume that’s true, but I want to see if Dems are finding a base (however low) in rural Missouri or if they’re still trending lower in those areas.  And additionally how Dems perform in various suburbs.  Together these number may answer shed light on whether there’s a conceivable path to statewide competitiveness in the future.

·       Independence – One Republican says Independence is trending red as fast as Jefferson County did a few cycles ago.  If so, that’ll be trouble for Democratic Rep. Robert Sauls, and could hand Dems as loss in the open toss-up House 29 race.

·       Springfield – Meanwhile, Springfield has been slowing shifting.  Greene County may still be red, but Springfield itself is becoming a district-by-district dogfight.  Republicans have been aggressive going after Democratic Rep. Besty Fogle, while Dems took aim at Republican Rep. Craig Fishel, and Sen-elect Curtis Trent’s old House seat is in play.

·       Patterson Pick-ups? – One MOScouter says that Rep. Jon Patterson’s leadership bid could be bolster with wins from seats around his Jackson County neck of the woods... “Watch the election results for Hutsler, Holmes, Allen, Worrell, Martin for a few additional Patterson pickups…”

·       Legalization – Is it possible to beat back a $7 million statewide ballot initiative by stitching together an across-the-spectrum hodge-podge/kitchen-sink coalition without an centralized money?  This would challenge the golden rule of politics: “whoever has the gold, rules.”

·       St. Louis County – The assumption is that St. Louis County is too far blue to elect a Republican county executive.  Today is the final test of this idea as Republican are running a Democrat as their candidate. 

·       St. Louis City – I haven’t followed the St. Louis President of the Board of Aldermen race too much, but the outcome should yield insights into the state of city politics.  Megan Green represents the ascendent progressive camp of city Dems which espouses high-minded principles.  Jack Coatar, meanwhile, expresses an out-of-vogue old-school liberalism focused on services.  I’m curious where city voters are now.

MOScout Pick’em Contest

Only 24 entries into the MOScout Pick’em Contest.  Here’s how fearless field of MOScouter pundits sees today’s tough races…

US Senate: Schmitt 100%  Valentine 0%

Amendment 3: Pass 58%    Fail 42%

Amendment 4: Pass 87%    Fail 13%

Senate 24: Hruza 29%  McCreery 71%

House 29: Martin 50%   Crossley 50%

House 92: Mahacek 58%  Burton 42%

House 98: Higgins 25%  Lavender 75%

House 105: Schwadron 92%   Berne 8%

House 135:  Exner 79%  Fogel  21%

Accusations Fly in House 98

Anonymous robotexts have roiled the hot House 98 race in St. Louis County.  Both campaigns are complaining that negative and deceptive texts have been spread.  There no evidence that the campaigns themselves were involved, but it’s gotten ugly in the last few days.

There is where Democrat Deb Lavender is trying to keep the seat for Dems (Trish Gunby opted to run for Congress), and Republican Ryan Higgins is running for the GOP.

See some of the screenshots here.

HRCC’s Last Minute IEs

Here are 24-hour expenditures by the House Republican Campaign Committee that were reported yesterday…

House 14

·       $5,000 in support of Eric Holmes.

·       $7,328 in opposition to Ashley Aune.

House 35

·       $2,500 in support of JC Crossley.

·       $2,500 in opposition to William Kemp.

House 47

·       $5,000 in support of John Martin.

·       $5,000 in opposition to Adrian Plank.

House 92

·       $5,000 in support of Bob Mahacek.

·       $5,000 in opposition to Michael Burton.

House 93

·       $7,500 in support of Kenneth Abram.

·       $7,500 in opposition to Bridgett Walsh Moore.

House 136

·       $5,000 in support of Craig Fishel.

·       $5,000 in opposition to Stephanie Hein.

Andrews Gets Appointment

Governor Mike Parson announced he was appointing Rep. Allen Andrews to be the Division of Employment Security Director within the Missouri Department of Labor and Industrial Relations.   Andrews is being termed out.

Other Parson appointments…

·       John Brown, of Lee's Summit, was appointed to the Missouri Board of Architects, Professional Engineers, Professional Land Surveyors, and Professional Landscape Architects.

·       Christian Shields Cunningham, of Florissant, was appointed to the State Committee for Social Workers.

·       Michael Purol, of Monroe City, was appointed to the Missouri Board of Architects, Professional Engineers, Professional Land Surveyors, and Professional Landscape Architects.

·       Mathew Ross, of Jefferson City, was appointed to the Board of Cosmetology and Barber Examiners.

Lobbyists Registrations

Kathryn Harness added NHS Management, L.L.C.; and deleted Northport Health Services, Inc; and Gila, LLC.

Mario Lopez added SEIU Local 1 - Missouri Division.

$5K+ Contributions

Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from New Growth Horizon LLC.

Greater Kansas City Woman's Political Caucus Segregated Fund - $9,800 from Greater Kansas City Women's Political Caucus.

A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $6,000 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Ann Wagner for Congress.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from HealthPAC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $6,129 from Citizens for Crystal Quade.

Uniting Missouri PAC (pro-Parson) - $10,000 from Xcaliber International LTD LLC (Pryor, OK).

Voters for Good Government - $30,000 from The Revitalization Project (Springfield, VA).

Sander for Missouri - $75,000 from Christopher Sander.

Hutsler 4 Missouri - $10,000 from Tom Hutsler.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Angela Mosley, Catherine Hanaway, Ed Bushmeyer, Steven Webb, and Mr. and Mrs. Harmon.