MOScout Daily Update: 2 Big Things From the Weekend... Senate Schism and Hawley Hearts Hartzler.
Senate Standstill Continues
The Senate spent time over the weekend continuing their attempt to redraw the congressional maps.
· Lincoln Days seemed to infuse new crosscurrents into the process. Congressmen Vicky Hartzler and Billy Long both voiced support for a 7-1 map; Congressmen Blaine Luetkemeyer and Ann Wagner were rumored to have present a new map.
· Yet, the essential equation remained unchanged: there aren’t enough votes in the Senate for a 7-1 map. There’s been no movement since it was defeated 8-24. And yet, those senators have successfully blocked a vote on any other map. The bulk of efforts have revolved around finding a compromise “6-2 strong” map. That compromise has remained elusive.
· With candidate filing set to open one week from tomorrow, the prospect of judicial intervention has increased. The hypothetical (and it’s just a hypothetical, no one knows how judges would react to this situation) is that when filing opens a would-be congressional candidate will sue. They’d ask for relief from the courts, that they’re entitled to know what/where they’re filing for. The conventional wisdom is that if judges did step in, Dems would receive a more beneficial outcome than otherwise. That is, judges would most likely draw a status quo 6-2 map. But a status quo map could also weaken CD-2. And it’s logically easier (and more likely therefore) to draw a map that conforms to Missouri’s partisan voting split (5-3) than one that pushes to a 7-1 split. The possibility of the courts getting involved was mentioned in Floor Leader Caleb Rowden’s statement on Saturday when the Senate adjourned. See it here.
· The open warfare between Republicans makes a formal schism seemingly inevitable at some point. Rowden’s statement was immediately shredded by Conservative Caucus senators Rick Brattin and Bob Onder. Brattin said that Rowden “is failing miserably on all fronts & passing the blame because he is a weak moderate.” Why would these two groups, the Regular Republicans and the Conservative Caucus, caucus together amid the venom being casually tossed around?
· This is good for Dems obviously. A civil war among the Republican majority will clearly hinder their ability to pass legislation. And there are plenty of lobbyists who are OK with the trainwreck on the Senate side. They all have clients who want to prevent some legislation from happening. For the others, well, “we’ll try again next year.”
The Senate is off today, and will reconvene Tuesday – when a pro-7-1 map rally is planned for Jefferson City…
Hawley Endorses Hartzler
US Senator Josh Hawley endorsed Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler at the Lincoln Days event over the weekend.
It was a thunderclap event that got everyone’s attention. Hawley is considered the most popular Republican among the Missouri GOP rank-and-file. Will it be an earthquake? The impact of Hawley’s endorsement will depend on how involved he is. Will he do appearances with Hartzler? Will he help with fundraising?
The early general consensus is that only an endorsement from Donald Trump would eclipse Hawley’s nod.
Political operative James Harris tweeted that “two or three candidates will need to assess their campaigns viability and if their continued candidacy merely aides @EricGreitens.”
I think we’re too far in for candidates to “assess viability,” but I do think that the endorsement will mark a pivot in strategy.
Greitens and Schmitt traded shots in dueling PAC commercials last week, each accusing the other of being soft on China. While Greitens saw Schmitt as his nearest competitor, this endorsement could change that. Likewise, instead of targeting Greitens, Schmitt may need to stand down, save his ammo, and figure where an attack makes the most sense in the future.
Long’s campaign, on the other hand, continues to hinge on a Trump endorsement. There’s really no other option for him.
Yesterday’s New York Times article on the Trump-McConnell war offers on gambit that Long could try… “Mr. Trump has made clear he wants the Senate candidates he backs to oust Mr. McConnell from his leadership perch, and even considered making a pledge to do so a condition of his endorsement. Few have done so to date, a fact Mr. McConnell considers a victory. “Only two of them have taken me on,” he crowed, alluding to Ms. Tshibaka in Alaska, and Eric Greitens, the former Missouri governor running for an open seat.”
Fundraising email sent from josh@hawleyformo.com soon after the endorsement…
Fellow American,
I’ll make this quick — it is critical we retake the Senate this fall and elect a CONSERVATIVE majority. It’s clear that retaking the Senate runs right through Missouri, and Vicky Hartzler is the clear choice.
Vicky Hartzler has a conservative record a mile long — the 3rd most conservative member of Congress, voted with President Trump over 95% of the time, and her outspoken criticism of China's human rights abuses led to her being SANCTIONED by the Chinese Communist Party.
She is unafraid to stand up for conservative values, and she is exactly who Missouri needs in the U.S. Senate. I need you to join me — donate today and help send Vicky Hartzler to the Senate:
God Bless,
Lobbyists Registrations
Larry Goldblatt added Lawrence Goldblatt.
Steven Tilley, Tracy King, and Thomas Robbins deleted Wave Taco.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays Jeff Altmann, Michael Moorefield, and Katie Jamboretz.