MOScout Daily Update: The Next Senate Leadership Race - Bryant Enters CDC-7 - Death of the Rural Dem - PD on Filing Uncertainty and more...
1 Big Thing: Next Senate Leadership Elections
Folks in the building are starting to think about the next Senate leadership election. With the disintegrating Senate Republican Caucus, the stakes of the upcoming primary elections have been raised.
When the Conservative Caucus first emerged, they said they were not in opposition to the current Republican Caucus, but viewed themselves as a resource.
This year, they’ve become more of an opposition party. Sens. Rick Brattin, Bill Eigel, Denny Hoskins, and Bob Onder have all disparaged leadership or called for their removal.
That means the issue of whether someone will or won’t caucus with the Conservative Caucus will be on the minds of a lot of lobbyists and donors as they consider state senate candidates this cycle.
In some places it’s obvious: In the Franklin County senate race, Ben Brown is a Conservative Caucus joiner; In St. Charles County senate race, Rep. Nick Schroer probably is a joiner. In other places, it’s not clear. Would JeffCo’s Jeff Roorda join?
This all sets the stage for the next leadership election. Floor Leader Caleb Rowden is running to replace Pro Tem Dave Schatz. Several names have been mentioned as possible floor leaders.
The Conservative Caucus won’t have the votes to elect one of their own to leadership, but they could force a compromise situation if the Regular Republicans can’t muster 18 votes of their own.
· One building denizen games out the scenario like this: “[In the case of the Conservative Caucus breaking off,] you would get the votes from the Democrats in exchange for something… presumably something having to do with legislation either getting floor time or not getting floor time…”
Bryant Announces in CD-7
Alex Bryant announced that he’s running for Congress to replace Billy Long. See a lo-fi Facebook video here. See his website here. He becomes the sixth announced candidate, joining Sam Alexander, Sen. Eric Burlison, Sen. Mike Moon, Audrey Richards, and Jay Wasson.
What I wrote Wednesday still holds…
· “Bryant is an unorthodox candidate for this race – he’s African American, he’s a minister, and he has no political experience… And his gambit probably isn’t different from some other candidates this year: in a crowded field, you just need to find you 25% of the electorate and hope for a good split.”
· But getting out of single digits will be problematic for Bryant. He said he plans to use social media to “catch up ground” with the other candidate, but that’s easier said than done. Especially when someone like Wasson has ploughed $500K into his campaign, and others like Burlison and Moon have their position as state senators to earn free media.
Out of the gate Bryant’s candidacy appears to be headed for the “also-ran” category. One politico’s assessment concurs: He seems like a nice guy but I don’t see any way he even becomes a relevant contender…
Filing To Open Amid Uncertain Lines
Post-Dispatch’s Kurt Erickson writes about the candidate filing which start Tuesday morning. Read it here. Where we are…
· State House maps are done.
· State Senate maps are in the hands of judges already and presumably will be finished soon.
· Congressional maps are at a standstill in the legislature (though some talk now is sounding more optimistic, we’ll see).
The biggest thing to watch… if we get into March without congressional maps, I wouldn’t be surprised by a lawsuit from a congressional candidate asking for the courts to get involved. This theoretical lawsuit would come from a Democratic candidate. Dems will get a better map from judges than from the Republican majority legislature.
This possibility should add incentive for the divided Republican Senate to find a compromise…
AP on Dems’ Rural Problem
There’s no mention of Missouri, but it’s worth the read…Associated Press surveys the decline of the Democratic Party’s “brand” in rural USA. Read it here.
· “The hatred for Democrats is just unbelievable,” said Tim Holohan, an accountant based in rural McKean County who recently encouraged his daughter to get rid of a pro-Joe Biden bumper sticker. “I feel like we’re on the run.”
· Barack Obama won 875 counties nationwide in his overwhelming 2008 victory. Twelve years later, Biden won only 527. The vast majority of those losses — 260 of the 348 counties — took place in rural counties, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.
What It Means
In Missouri, the Democrats’ path out of being a legislative superminority is to win swing
suburban districts. But the path to regaining the majority someday is insurmountable without building new inroads back into the rural parts of the state. And right now, with the national Democratic Party so much more liberal than Missourians, that’s not even something most Democrats can imagine.
KHN on MedEx
Kaiser Health News says that Missouri is breaking federal law with its slow processing of Medicaid applications. Read it here.
· For nearly a decade, Missouri’s Republican political leaders resisted expanding eligibility for Medicaid, the state-federal health insurance program for people with low incomes. It took effect in summer 2021 after a voter ballot initiative passed in 2020. Now, Missouri has more pending applications for MO HealthNet — the name of the state’s Medicaid program — than people enrolled through the expansion…
· In the state’s most recent report, it said it was taking an average of 70 days to process typical applications — longer than the 45 days allowed by federal law.
· Kim Evans, director of the Missouri Department of Social Services’ Family Support Division, told the MO HealthNet Oversight Committee in February that the delay is due to a shortage of workers that has become more acute because of the pandemic.
2nd Floor Vs 4th Estate
One MOScouter says the coming Missouri Press Day in the capitol with the tradition lunch with the governor will be a “hot ticket” this year (March 3).
Governor Mike Parson has been at odds with the mainstream media…
· Pushing for an investigation into a Post-Dispatch reporter for “hacking.”
· Refusing to answer questions from veteran reporter Rudi Keller.
It could bring a testy question-and-answer session.
Lobbyists Registrations
Mike Krause added EBSCO Industries, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Show Me Integrity Action Fund - $22,320 from The Center for Election Science.
Local Jobs for STL - $44,557 from National Association of Realtors.
Friends of Kemp Strickler - $5,034 from William Kemp Strickler.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeffery Justus and Rose Marie Hopkins.