MOScout Weekender: What The Danforth Bombshell Means - New US Senate Poll - Hallway on Senate Savior - McDowell for McCloskey and more...

Danforth Promises Independent Senate Candidate

It’s a humdinger of a story in the Post-Dispatch (read it here) and Missouri Independent (read it here), Jack Danforth, elder statesman of the Missouri Republican Party, guarantees that a right-center Republican will run as an Independent for US Senate.  He claims that the current crop of Republican candidates is too divisive and that they’re indistinguishable from one another.

Danforth released a poll to bolster his claim that an Independent Republican was desired by the Missouri electorate and could win.

The survey, conducted by Miami-based Bendixen & Amandi International between Feb. 2 and 6, found that a “Republican running as an Independent” would receive 28% of the vote, compared with a “Republican who will support the Trump wing of the GOP” winning 31% and a “Democrat who will support Chuck Schumer” also receiving 31%.

He also said that there’s no candidate in mind already, but he’s sure one would emerge.  And that the campaign will be well funded.

What It Means

·         Assuming that when Danforth pipes the bugle, a platoon will show up and fall in line (not a given since he’s 85 and a generation removed from the political arena), this is an absolute bombshell.  It would suddenly put Missouri’s US Senate seat in play.

·         Civil war. This is yet another indication of a schism occurring within the Missouri Republican Party.  We’ve been watching it play out in the Senate over the past few months.  I can imagine a future where you declare what “type” of Republican you are as you enter public life.  Suburban GOP candidates will be one type and rural GOP candidates will be another.

Remington/MOScout Poll: US Senate Republican Primary

Survey conducted February 16 through February 17, 2022. 917likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: What is your opinion of Josh Hawley?

Favorable: 64%

Unfavorable: 21%

No opinion: 15%

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Parson?

Favorable: 55%

Unfavorable: 21%

No opinion: 24%

Q3: What is your opinion of the Missouri State Legislature?

Favorable: 38%

Unfavorable: 27%

No opinion: 35%

Q4: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate are the Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Dave Schatz, and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Eric Greitens: 25%

Vicky Hartzler: 18%

Billy Long: 8%

Mark McCloskey: 5%

Dave Schatz: 2%

Eric Schmitt: 22%

Undecided: 20%

Q5: Do you think Donald Trump should run for president in 2024?

Yes: 53%

No: 31%

Not sure: 16%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Help Us Andrew Koenig…

I asked lobbyists: Who holds the "best hope" for the Senate to overcome its rifts?  23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Jason Bean… 0%

2. Tony Luetkemeyer… 4.3%

3.  Andrew Koenig… 56.5%

4. The Senate Women… 30.4%

5.Someone else… 8.7%

Sample of Comments

·         Koenig is often a bridge between those who wish to politically masturbate and those who wish to get something done.

·         I don’t think it’s any one person. There are very few (maybe no) senators who don’t have at least one thing on their priority list. As the clock ticks by they will each (slowly but surely) see they need to stop being so recalcitrant.

·         Not everyone loves [Luetkemeyer], but everyone knows his ability.

·         Koenig is the natural bridge between the conservatives and moderates.

·         [Koenig] holds the respect of all in the senate, although believe that the sub portion of the CC, since it is splitting at the seams, will become frustrated with Koenig's rationalism and realize his near undetectable level of irrationalism disqualifies him from being elected to a CC leadership position. Looks like Burlison might be in the same tough spot by being viewed as a rational senator.

·         The women are the only ones who have shown any interest AND ability to right the ship. But there aren’t 18 of them. I can’t find 18 of any group right now though.

·         Holly Thompson Rehder.

·         Koenig has a proven track record for navigating tough situations. He's a genuinely nice guy and both sides trust him.

·         If they can give Koenig a tax win, I think he could get everyone back to the table.

·         Koenig will split and go with the prevailing side. The women have only stood up for an hour to talk in platitudes.

·         [Koenig’s] the clear broker between the two factions. Good example of how you can be principled on values and policy without being a jack***.

·         The real answer seems to be a combination of moderate Rs that include the women and individuals like Bernskoetter, Cierpiot, and people with a genuine interest in seeing Government function that empower and support Caleb R to create a real governing alliance that actually does the mundane, but important work of governing and puts "red meat" issues to the side. This one probably takes a village!

Who Won the Week?

Jack Danforth – Still got it.  Instead of quietly watching from the sidelines, the former US Senator insists on engaging to correct the course of the Republican Party.

MO Dems – Senate is spinning its wheels, MO GOP’s elder statesman promises to put the US Senate seat in play.  All they need now is someone to run for auitor…

The Middle – While it feels like most Missouri has divided into two camps, there’s an emerging collection of Republicans and Democrats trying to ease up: RightPath PAC, The Eleven, Danforth, Better Elections.

Overalls – Are they about to have their viral moment in Missouri?  We’ll know if we see lobbyists walking the halls in them this week.

Find a downloadable version here.

Finally

In case you missed it, former auditor and gubernatorial candidate Saundra McDowell is now “working for the Mark McCloskey for U.S. Senate Campaign.”

$5K+ Contributions

Local Jobs for STL - $40,000 from National Association of Realtors.

Local Jobs for STL - $10,000 from St Louis Association of Realtors – PAC.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $14,319 from Eric Schmidt (Palo Alto CA).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Alex Eaton, Lynne Schlosser, Ron Gladney, and Rodney Schad.

Sunday: Doug Galloway, Matt Bartle, Ben Baker, and Kenny Biermann.