MOScout Daily Update: Kehoe Gets FOP for 2024 - Steve West Again... - Reaction to Danforth Plan and more...
Let’s start with a few scoops…
Kehoe Gets Police Endorsement for 2024
Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe secured another major endorsement for his 2024 campaign for governor. This one is from the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police. The announcement was made by FOP State President Rick Inglima on Saturday night in Kansas City at the FOP’s annual Policeman’s Ball which featured National FOP President Pat Yoes as the honored guest.
What It Means
· The early endorsement reaffirms Kehoe’s solid relationship with law enforcement organizations throughout Missouri.
· It shows that Team Kehoe is aggressively working the 2024 cycle – even before 2022 filing opens. This follows an endorsement last month from the Missouri Cattlemen.
· The early conventional wisdom was that Jay Ashcroft’s name ID made him a lock on the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Not so. Between strong fundraising quarter and early endorsements, Kehoe has proven it’s a wide-open race.
1st in MOScout: GOP Problem Returns for 2022
It appears that avowed antisemite Steve West will be filing for House 15 tomorrow. He started a candidate committee on Friday. See the paperwork here, which shows West plans to run again as a Republican.
West first emerged in Missouri politics in 2016 when he ran against Democrat Jon Carpenter for state representative. During that campaign, online videos of West surfaced which ranged from bizarre to deeply antisemitic and bigoted.
When he ran in 2020 for the same seat, House leadership issued a statement: “Steve West's shocking and vile comments do not reflect the position of the Missouri Republican Party or indeed of any decent individual. West's abhorrent rhetoric has absolutely no place in the Missouri Republican Party or anywhere. We wholeheartedly condemn his comments. To our knowledge, no member of the Missouri Republican Party, the House Republican Campaign Committee, or sitting member of the General Assembly recruited Mr. West to run for office; we find his statements to be vile, offensive, and out of line with our party's values.”
See a Kansas City Star article about him here.
West still won that Republican primary, losing in the general election, to Rep. Maggie Nurrenberg. West took 42% of the vote in the general.
House 15 is one of the 27 districts considered “competitive,” though it tilts Democratic.
· One option for Republicans: they could refuse to accept West’s filing fee, a necessary requirement to run. There is precedent for taking this action.
A sample from West’s website:
[Jews] PROMOTE INSANE DEBT to enrich themselves w/usury, bankrupting nations, & then steal public & private assets for pennies on the dollar, as they did w/the collapse of the USSR. This is their plan for us!!!...
They're allied w/China, and incite war with Russia, Iran, Syria, & Venezuela, while hiding their duplicity & sedition…
They are the adversary of Christ & mankind. Judaism today bears only superficial resemblance to the Old Testament, but instead, relies on the Talmud. Talmudic Judaism gave us Communism, and has caused well over 15 fold the death & destruction of Nazism…
House and Senate Off Today
Today is President’s Day. The legislature is not in session. They’ll be back tomorrow. House Floor Leader Dean Plocher, in a note to members, warns of another upcoming winter storm expected to arrive Wednesday or Thursday, but says he has no plans for another shortened week. Reps should plan accordingly, he writes, if they’ll need to stay an extra day until roads are cleared.
Filing Opens Tomorrow
It sounds like most candidates for congress and state senate will be in line Tuesday morning for filing despite the lack of new redistricted lines being drawn.
And one reader says a lawsuit regarding the undrawn congressional districts wouldn’t be ripe yet. “There is no requirement in the federal Constitution for a congressional candidate to live in the district they are elected to represent. There is also no timeline established for drawing the districts and a lawsuit now should be thrown out as premature.”
I think he’s right, but the clock is ticking…
Danforth’s Last Charge
I heard from a number of folks about Jack Danforth’s charge into the US Senate race. He released polling information and declared that a Republican, running as an Independent, could win the race. Missourians are hungry for someone who’s less divisive than the current field. He expects a candidate will emerge, and they will be well-funded.
There’s a lot of skepticism out there in the political class….
Finding The Dream Candidate
One source says that “Danforth has already received ‘no thanks’” from at least two possible candidates, leading to speculation that he’s gone public now because finding a candidate is hard.
But several folks think it’s a nearly impossible task…
· I don’t think they will find a legitimate candidate. There are only few states that have seen successful independent runs and I can’t think of any as red as Missouri. Anyone that has ran as a Republican before will know the best impossibility as being elected an independent.
· Although I agree with Danforth’s position on this field, his approach is unwinnable unless he can convince a celebrity to run: Ozzie Smith, Adam Wainwright, Carl Edwards. If he funds a candidate not on that list, he is simply handing the seat to Kunce. People on Twitter are talking about Matt Blunt, Kenny Hulshoff, Steve Ehlmann, Charlie Shields. All of those names are laughable. We have a 2-party system. Independents can’t win unless they are legitimate celebrities. Anything short of that simply hands the election to the Democrat.
Should Danforth Be Playing the Long Game Instead?
One consultant: What the Danforth circle should instead be focused on is supporting center-right candidates running for lower level positions to help stack the bench with these types of candidates. They could’ve stepped in last cycle and prevented Mike Moon and Rick Brattin, maybe even defeated Bill Eigel though a stretch… They also could support candidates like Shamed Dogan. Danforth’s circle funding Dogan could incentivize a return to “normal Republicans” by rewarding those who refuse to engage the crazy train just for votes and “retweets.” They need to know they have a path forward after term limits and so far most center-right groups and donors have refused to step up to the plate for these candidates in the same way the fringe groups, donors, and activist have for their far right candidates.
Schatz as Alt-Danforth Candidate?
More than one consultant wondered if Sen. Dave Schatz could capitalize on this. One suggested he should file as an Independent on Tuesday.
Another asked: If no Independent emerges, does Danforth rally behind Schatz? He’s the only candidate in the race that would perhaps fit closely to their goal. The things Schatz is hit on—gas tax, etc—are things Danforth would almost assuredly applaud. Schatz is called a RINO by the fringe that Danforth despises, so that seems to make them the closest aligned of the current field.
What This Says About the State of GOP
There should be some soul searching among Republicans as to why we are taking positions that abandon many swing voters. Republicans can’t vilify Antifa and BLM far left Democrats while justifying January 6th rioters. Republicans voted to impeach Bill Clinton for moral indiscretions yet they give Donald Trump a pass for trysts with a porn star. Independent voters are watching to see which candidates will step up and call bullshit.
New Committees
Missouri Conservation Alliance was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Amber Watson.
Jeffco Patriot Initiative was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Scott Steinmann.
$5K+ Contributions
Together KC - $50,000 from Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce.
Lobbyists Registrations
Noah Reandeau added Kids Read Now, Inc.
Chelsea Chaney added National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies.
Franc Flotron and David McCracken deleted Adam Puchta and Son Wine Company.
Richard McIntosh and David McCracken deleted Corizon Health LLC, and Drivewyze Inc.
Richard McIntosh deleted WellSky Corporation, Filtered Inc., Allen Law Offices LLC, and Hannegan Landau Poersch Advocacy.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Donna Baringer, Craig Unruh, Jo Mannies, Harry Kennedy, and Steve Stenger.