MOScout Daily Update: How Will Senate Function? - How Will House Receive Map? - Cunningham Flyer - MOGOP Opposes Better Elections and more....

Two things I’m watching…

·         How will the Senate function now that the redistricting war is behind them?

·         How will the House receive the map?

The Case for Senate Pessimism

A Facebook post by former Sen. Jim Lembke a few weeks ago laid out his vision of the fight for the soul of the Senate…

THE SENATE’S CIVIL WAR

The senate is at war. This war has been brewing for decades. It is a war about first principles, about what is the proper role of government.

This is a civil war. The victors will decide the future of our state, and the fate of the Republican Party.

The battle lines are our God given rights of Life, Liberty and Property.

One side believes in an ever expanding, intrusive role of government, the other in a smaller, limited government.

The standard is not subjective. The objective standard is our founding documents and the MOGOP platform. This is not gray, but black and white….

Like our founding fathers, we have a small group of determined patriots that are standing in the gap to protect our freedoms. Join me in supporting the Conservative Caucus and adding to their numbers by continuing your support to The 100 PAC.

What It Means

·         Lembke is seen as chief advisor to the Conservative Caucus.  He works for the 100PAC, which is expected to engage in open-seat Senate Republican primaries to elect more Conservative Caucus members.

·         The whole point of their existence is that current majority of Republicans in the Senate is not conservative enough.

·         Their modus operandi of the last few weeks has been to try to prove this point with amendments.  If a bill is on a trajectory to pass with bipartisan support, inject a conservative amendment to make it a partisan issue, proving they’re “willing to fight” for conservative principles.

·         A Republican-majority, smooth-functioning Senate doesn’t make their case.

The House and The Map

Folks are knitting their brows over the Missouri Independent article about the redistricting map.  Read it here.  It quotes House Redistricting Chair Dan Shaul warning that the votes for passage might not be there.

The map produced in the Senate is likely to have critics in the House, Shaul warned. The bill sent to the Senate received 86 votes, just four more than enough for passage.  “We are going to have to count some votes carefully,” he said.

He said he has some issues but didn’t want to decide Thursday whether he will accept it, Shaul said.  “Compact and contiguous doesn’t seem to have been as high a priority with their map,” he said.

What It Means

·         Shaul’s point is correct: the margins are thin, and there are critics (see below).

·         But lobbyists refuse to believe the House will reject the map.  Send it back to the Senate and you might as well Sine Die.

·         One possible way out: make a deal with the Dems.  House Dems could provide those necessary votes…

Cunningham Decries Congressional Map

A flyer from former Sen Mike Cunningham was distributed at the Webster County Lincoln Days on Saturday.  Folks might remember Cunningham as a mild-manned senator back in the day.  But this flyer “fights fire with fire” in the words of one lobbyist.  See it here.

·         It argues that “there was never a 7-1 map.” (“It was a lie. They manipulated us, all to selfishly move their own political career forward.”)

·         It calls the redistricting map passed last week is a “brazen attack on the people of Webster County.”   It blames the Conservative Caucus, specifically accusing Sens. Eric Burlison and Mike Moon of deliberately dividing Webster County because they thought it would help their congressional campaigns.

MOGOP Opposes Better Elections IP

The Missouri Republican Party State Executive Committee unanimously voted to oppose the Better Elections’ ranked-choice voting initiative petition.  See it here.

Among their reasons for opposition… “ranked choice voting scheme effectively creates an election results verification impossibility for election authorities since the amendment language does not clearly define the tabulation process at the precinct level.”

What It Means

·         There are Republicans working in support for Better Elections, and its chances for passage are much better if they can retain a bipartisan sheen to the effort.  However, this is the first step in rallying the Republican base, and making it a partisan issue.

Calzone Alone Against Ukraine Resolution

The Senate Rules Committee heard Sen. Paul Wieland’s SR 593 last week.  It says that members of the Senate “condemn and oppose the unprovoked invasion and egregious act of aggression against the sovereign state of Ukraine by the Russian Federation.”

The only witness against the resolution was non-registered lobbyist Ron Calzone…

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Lobbyists Registrations

Christopher Warren Dunn added Christopher Warren Dunn.

Tracy King, Thomas Robbins and Steven Tilley deleted MO Hemp Trade Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Marty Oetting, Joe Fallert, and Scott Lipke.