MOScout Daily Update: House Sours on Map - Roberts Primaries Bush - Busch Valentine Files for US Senate - Long Touts Trump's "Big Announcement" and more...

Map Mess

It sounds like the House is not going to go along with the Senate’s redistricting map.  The House Republicans held a caucus to decide how to proceed and there was wide-ranging disapproval and discontent with the map.

·         One source: “They sent us a dogsh*t map.”

Where This Is Headed

Right now – and things can change – I expect the House will reject the Senate map and offer to go to conference to come up with a compromise.

If it goes in that direction, they’ll obviously be some very interested legislators watching who gets appointed to the conference committee.  (One observer suggested the Senate might reject the offer of conference.  We’ll see).

·         It looks like the congressional map distraction will continue into April.  Though at some point, one would imagine the courts intervene.  We’ll see…

Candidate Filing

Today is the final day of candidate filing – unless a courts order candidate filing to reopen given that potential candidates don’t have a congressional map to know who they’d be running to represent.

Yesterday we saw a slew of candidate filings.  The news of Roberts and Valentine dominated online chatter, but see all the others at the bottom of the update as well….

Roberts To Primary Bush

Sen. Steve Roberts filed to run for Congress.  He (along with five other Dems) is primarying Congresswoman Cori Bush.

It’s expected he’ll run to the center of Bush, arguing that her radicalism is bad for the St. Louis region, and out of step with middle-class Democrats.

·         Roberts isn’t up for re-election this cycle so he’s able to jump into the race without risking his state senate seat.

Busch Valentine Files for US Senate, Sifton Drops

Trudy Busch Valentine filed to run for US Senate as a Democrat. 

Post-Dispatch says to look for a formal announcement today. From that article: Valentine is the daughter of the late Anheuser-Busch beer baron August “Gussie” Busch Jr., who died in 1989. Her mother, Gertrude “Trudy” Busch, was Busch’s third wife.  She has been a major fundraiser for Democratic candidates. In 2016, she held a fundraiser at Grant’s Farm, the historic homestead of the Busch family, for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton… In 2019, Valentine contributed $4 million to St. Louis University to support its nursing school, which is now named after her.  Valentine graduated from the nursing school in 1980.

·         And… former Sen. Scott Sifton announced he was dropping out of the race and endorsing Valentine.  That move appears to presage a coalescing of the Dem establishment behind Valentine.

Valentine brings some substantial strengths: No voting record, ability to self-fund, and – if Greitens is the Republican nominee – strong demographic appeal as a woman.  But she’s a first-time candidate, so there’s lots of unknowns.

·         One Republican operative: “Trudy Busch Valentine can defeat Greitens… She can put in $10M…”

Long Pushes “Big Announcement” From Trump

Congressman Billy Long’s campaign texted out a photo of Long with Donald Trump under the banner of “Big Announcement.” It included the recent glowing quote from Trump – leaving out the part about it not being an endorsement.  I guess you play the cards you’re dealt…

Meanwhile

Attorney General Eric Schmitt announced he was endorsed by the National Association for Gun Rights PAC, “the second largest pro-gun organization.”

Driving the Day: Big Senate Ed Committee

The Senate Education Committee hearing looks to be a doozie today with several anti-CRT bills scheduled to be presented.

Sen. Bill Eigel’s SB 740 is the most wide-ranging, covering CRT, but also prohibiting requirements of face masks, or COVID vaccinations, as well as a prohibition against trans athletes.

Biden Pushes Dems Away From “Defund”

Axios reports that President Joe Bidens’s new budget rejects the calls from the Dem left to “defund the police.”

The proposal also would mandate $30 billion in new spending over the next decade on a variety of programs to expand law enforcement and crime prevention… The expanded discretionary spending would increase resources for federal prosecutors and give additional resources to state and local law enforcement to put more police on the beat…

Between the lines: The president has been looking for ways to distance himself from progressives over how to combat crime, and to convince swing voters he understands their concerns about feeling unsafe.  In his State of the Union address this month, Biden said, "We should all agree: The answer is not to defund the police. It's to fund the police. Fund them. Fund them. Fund them with resources and training."

eMailbag on Cunningham Flyer

Webster County was divided in the 2011 map.  Sen. Jay Wasson voted for the map (HB 193 in 2011); Mike Cunningham was Wasson’s chief of staff.

New Candidate Filings

Michael Sinclair filed to run in Senate 2 (Onder termed, St. Charles) as a Democrat.  This is a safe Republican seat.

Jason Franklin filed to run in Senate 10 (Riddle termed, Mid-MO) as a Democrat.  This is a safe Republican seat.

Benjamin Hagin filed to run in Senate 22 (Wieland termed, Jefferson County) as a Democrat.

Brett A. Schenck filed to run in Senate 24 (Schupp termed St. Louis County) as a Republican, creating a primary to determine who faces Democratic Rep. Tracy McCreery.

Lincoln Hough filed for re-election in Senate 30 (Springfield).  And Raymond Lampert filed to run as a Democrat in that district as well.

Sarah Shorter filed to run in Senate 34 (Luetkemeyer for re-election, Platte) as a Democrat.

Joshua Vance filed to run in house 7 (Chillicothe) as a Democrat.  He’ll face Rep. Peggy McGaugh in a safe Republican district.

Joseph Holiway filed to run in House 42 (Warrenton) as a Republican, creating a 3-way primary.  It’s an open-seat safe Republican district.

J. Don Salcedo filed to run in House 60 (Jefferson City) as a Democrat.  He’ll face Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Griffith.

Peter Merideth filed for re-election in House 80 (St. Louis City).

Kenny Edgar filed to run in House 92 (St. Louis County) as Democrat, primarying Rep. Michael Burton.

Kenneth Abram filed to run in House 93 (St. Louis County) as a Republican.  He’ll face Democratic Rep. Bridget Walsh Moore.

Leslie Derrington filed to run in House 96 (St. Louis County) as a Democrat. This is the old David Gregory district.

Barbara Marco filed to run in House 115 (DeSoto) as a Democrat.  Marco has run (unsuccessfully) before. Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway is the Republican incumbent.

Mindy Martin filed to run in House 123 (Lake of the Ozarks) as a Republican, primarying Rep. Lisa Thomas.

Rich Horton filed to run in House 128 (Bolivar) as a Democrat.  The Republican incumbent is Rep. Mike Stephens.

Minority Leader Crystal Quade filed to run for re-election in House 132 (Springfield).

Amy Blansit filed to run in House 133 (Springfield) as a Democrat.

Nathan Thomas filed to run in House 147 (Cape Girardeau) as a Republican, creating a 3-way primary.

$5K+ Contributions

RightPath PAC - $50,000 from Eric Upin.

Freedom Incorporated - $50,000 from Together KC.

Lobbyists Registrations

Tom Dempsey and Dave Berry added Catholic Charities Archdiocese of Saint Louis; and deleted Missouri Charter Public Schools Association.

Thomas “T.J.” Berry added Oakstone Consulting.

Declan Binninger and Tiffany Ingram added Ghost Management Group, LLC (dba Weedmaps).

Walter Dale added City Of Parma.

Nathan Nickolaus added City of Odessa; and deleted City of Fayette.

Jeremy LaFaver and Salvatore Panettiere added Mattie Rhodes Center.

Ryan Rowden added Steven R Carroll & Associates.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Zach Brunnert, Sean Grove, Ellen Brandom, Will Scharf, Nathan Beard, and Neal St. Onge.